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Posted on 12/11/2019 7:32:04 AM PST by son of terrence
The probability of the amazing Horowitz coin toss is astounding. Every one of the 17 known improprieties in the FBI investigation into Donald Trump all came up heads, in favor of the FBI. Yet, the IG can find no bias. The likelihood of that event in infinitesimal. 17 coin flips all heads = .5 to the 17th power or .00000762939
Will some bloody Congress-critter ask him if bias is statistically certain.
old newsIf you're playing the drinking game, take two, once for 'debunked' and once for 'conspiracy theory'!
silence
harumph not true
wanna do push-ups
conspiracy theory
debunked
how dare you attack my Catholic faith!
my son was on his death bed
Very good point. The Horowitz coin is a good phrase.
If these were truly random events there would be 17 coins each being flipped (representing the 17 events). I would say there would be 2^17 different coin outcomes and therefore a 1 in 131072 chance of coming up all heads.
Now you could make the case that the people involved in the events were trying to disguise their bias so that a 50-50 proposition of getting caught gets skewed to 75 - 25 or something like that.
But the point is that 17 times documents went to the FISA court with faulty information and Horowitz can't find a reason why. Either Horowitz is incompetent or the FBI always sends in faulty documents.
The whole thing stinks.
He’s setting up his deep staters to pull a Comey and claim that even though they did wrong, because there was NO INTENT they are innocent.
In my younger days I could flip a many heads as I wanted, just takes practice in your flipping technique. That is the same way they manage to change the odds, practice.
This is very basic. Consider Marc Anthony's oration over Ceaser, in the Shakespeare classic. By calling the assassins, honorable men, while describing Caesar's service to Rome, he is infinitely more effective than had he made the issue his interpretation of the motives of the assasins.
Let the facts pull your reader or listener to the conclusion you want, not the adjectives employed.
Horowitz’ job was never to establish bias or intent. Saying he “found no documentary or testimonial evidence” is a flat out LIE that guarantees Horowitz has forever labeled himself as a scoundrel.
“Horowitz is NOT a prosecutor, he is an investigator”
There you go, with facts ‘n stuff. That won’t sell around here.
Horowitz’s “lack of bias” statement means nothing more than that none of the culprits openly admitted having bias.
People need to pay attention to the FISA violations listed in the Appendix to the report. That stuff is going to send people to prison, probably including Comey.
That is how I look at it
Look at the actual report not just the summary made by the media
The report even though may not be a bombshell because it lacks high emotional buzz words, it is definitely far from being a nothing burger
There is some damning stuff in this report
Barr and Durham’s turn to run with it. They can indict, subpoena who they need.
The high emotional buzzwords only appeal to those already committed. With the misled, they have the exact opposite effect, This is very basic to the “art of persuasion.”
“But the odds of flipping a coin 17 times and it landing on heads each time are 1 in 2. The odds realign after each flip.”
No, the individual odds of each flip landing heads may always be 1 in 2. However, the odds of all 17 of them landing heads is not 1 in 2.
You’re confusing the individual probability and cumulative probability. The cumulative probability in that case would be 0.000762939%, which is not low enough to call it a statistical impossibility, but it would certainly be extraordinarily rare.
It’s not a lie. It’s just, as a negative, irrelevant.
It just means no one clearly admitted it or wrote down that they were intentionally biasing, while declaring their reasons for doing so were political.
It's not a lie. It's much worse. This morning Rush parsed it: the phrase "documentary or testimonial evidence" means no one admitted either in writing (documentary) or when asked verbally (testimonial) that they were biased, it's absolutely true that they didn't admit their bias.
In effect Horowitz merely say no one admitted it, and as a true scoundrel uses a half truth to lie, he deliberately and maliciously phrased the half truth to lie and assert that there was no bias, when even the most casual of observers would see gross malignant bias in these peoples' every action.
Imagine the republicans drafting Rush to examine the witnesses in congress!
He is correct on the IM-probability of finding NO bias-— from a statistical point of view. His calculation is correct .5 probability for each toss to the 17th power-— the probability of 17 tosses ALL coming up (heads=NO Bias) is ZERO. ecomes essentially zero in 8 coin tosses, which would be observable in the “non-balanced designed coin” made to always show heads.
The problem with this analogy is that HOROWITZ never asked or tried to determine BIAS. Hence his idiotic ostrich answer.
Yes... just like Comey citing “there was no intent” to commit a crime... therefore the act of doing the crime was not criminal or chargeable! Ignoring the Statute in doing so, which did not incorporate intent in the violation.
The Age of Intent-— excusing actions and thus removing cause and punishment for the actions.
BIAS would be Intent! And you can’t have that termed Bias, because there can be NO intent. Some damn sure pretzel logic. And thus-— when pressed its evident HE NEVER ASKED or investigated intent, vicious bloody minded INTENT.
To quote Conservative Treehouse:”
…Everyone collectively just happened to make identical mistakes, at the same time, in the same direction, together with all the administrative staff within all intelligence organizations… many of them were professionally trained lawyers… but no-one did anything wrong on purpose….
Remember the modern mantra for DOJ definitions of legality are all about “intent“..... thanks, CTH!
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