Skip to comments.Long-Range Weather Forecasts (and Climate Change)
Posted on 12/03/2019 7:52:15 AM PST by daniel1212
Below are some NOAA long-range forecasts, and which typically predict mostly warmer to much warmer than average weather (to the almost complete exclusion of colder than average). How do you think they did and will do?
Below is the 3-month forecast for Nov. thru Jan. made Oct. 17. Joe Bastardi reported that November was the 2nd coldest since 2001 for the US. These "records" go back just 140 years (1880). .
Next is the NOAA forecast for Dec. 10-16 that was made Dec. 2:
Below was the NOAA 3 month (Dec. Jan. Feb.) prediction made Oct. 17, which as almost always in its extended forecasts, mostly predicts warmer or much warmer than average temps.
Then we have this extended (Dec-Feb.) prediction from The Weather Company:
(MORE: It's a Record-Snowy Start for the Northern Rockies, Plains)
As seen in this thread from last year (Dec. 1, 2018) the NOAA Dec-Feb. (Made Oct. 18) outlook favored warmer to much warmer than average temperatures (and none lower than average) for most of the U.S.
It is hard to find out how these predictions turned out, and seeing that they cover 90 days makes it less precise. However, I did post a thread last March on comparisons after finding a NOAA analyst who did such for 2018-2019: .
Read on past comparisons going back to 2004-2005 here .
Look for "forecast" and "observed" in image: " alt="" border="0">
Thou visitest the earth, and waterest it: thou greatly enrichest it with the river of God, which is full of water: thou preparest them corn, when thou hast so provided for it. Thou waterest the ridges thereof abundantly: thou settlest the furrows thereof: thou makest it soft with showers: thou blessest the springing thereof. Thou crownest the year with thy goodness; and thy paths drop fatness. They drop upon the pastures of the wilderness: and the little hills rejoice on every side. The pastures are clothed with flocks; the valleys also are covered over with corn; they shout for joy, they also sing. (Psalms 65:9-13)
He watereth the hills from his chambers: the earth is satisfied with the fruit of thy works. He causeth the grass to grow for the cattle, and herb for the service of man: that he may bring forth food out of the earth; (Psalms 104:13-14)
How do you think they did and will do?
Since they don’t take into account the current Maunder Minimum we have been experiencing, the effects to be seen next year or so, they will FAIL Miserably.
It looks to me like whatever they predict, we get the opposite. I wish I could make money being wrong all the time.
NOAA is a BS factory.
the Nov-Dec-Jan 2019-2020 is already off at least for the Northeast. Currently waiting for the snow to end so I can plow out.
Yup, here we have a little moon that moves our oceans. What do you suppose several planets in a certain arrangement do? Not to mention the sun of course. Maybe planet arrangement affects the sun for all we know. Maybe there’s a long pattern of thousands of years.
Maybe it’s God reminding us of His existence and power.
Yes, NOAA has become a BS factory, allowing politics to push all longer range forecasts to the warmer side. Ive noticed it for several years. Disband NOAA. Waste of money in the Information Age.
The weather service cant even give accurate forecasts for the next 48 hours. The various computer models predicting major storms are all over the place ranging from nothing to the plagues of Egypt. Our Thanksgiving storm, named Ezekiel, came with snow estimates for our area ranging from from a few inches to over a foot. Fortunately the few inches was the reality. That climate models can predict temperatures decades in advance to tenths of a degree and be used to fuel climate hysteria is pure bunk. NOAA cant tell me tomorrows high temp within a few degrees.
Weather forecasts and weather reports are only good to tell you what it is doing outside right now and what it did yesterday. We were predicted to be high 40 yesterday but had snow and sleet with a high of 33. That was a tomorrow forecast.
Hyperbole noted, though in less than 12 years... according to some Globaal warming cultist.
Our Thanksgiving storm, named Ezekiel, came with snow estimates for our area ranging from from a few inches to over a foot. Fortunately the few inches was the reality.
But 24" in Fitchburg are I heard, though this compilation says 12".
Indeed. The only-wise God
By 1pm coastal
Please send me the definition of normal so I will have enough time to head for the hills before NOAA tells me they are wrong.
"Head for the hills" used to normally mean escape from impending danger. Not so much now.
Preach to the choir! I taught my son that centuries ago they had no TV so people watched the stars and planets for entertainment. They could predict the weather better then, because they took into account the gravity of the planets. Unless you have documentation of the positions of the planets orbiting the sun centuries ago there’s no way you can state that the weather were having is hotter or cooler. That tree ring crap is just that!
Record temps or conditions = proof of man made global warming?
Ding! Ding! Ding! Youre the winner
Ive always statedweather forecasting is only accurate for about 24 to 48 hours
As Joe Bastardi has said, their programs cannot “see” cold weather in the forecasts.
NWS often can't get two different offices to agree on the weather during the same 24 hour period. Taunton MA and Gray Maine often disagree about snow depths, etc. along the NH/MA border. You would think their models would not have discontinuities at state boundaries, since the atmosphere really doesn't know where the boundary is. But the NWS offices do.
Monkeys at keyboards have a better chance than these clowns.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.