Oscillations of the baseline of solar magnetic field and solar irradiance on a millennial timescale

Nature ^ | 24 June 2019 | V. V. Zharkova, S. J. Shepherd, S. I. Zharkov & E. Popova

[CedarDave]

Abstract:

Recently discovered long-term oscillations of the solar background magnetic field associated with double dynamo waves generated in inner and outer layers of the Sun indicate that the solar activity is heading in the next three decades (2019–2055) to a Modern grand minimum similar to Maunder one.

On the other hand, a reconstruction of solar total irradiance suggests that since the Maunder minimum there is an increase in the cycle-averaged total solar irradiance (TSI) by a value of about 1–1.5 Wm−2 closely correlated with an increase of the baseline (average) terrestrial temperature.

In order to understand these two opposite trends, we calculated the double dynamo summary curve of magnetic field variations backward one hundred thousand years allowing us to confirm strong oscillations of solar activity in regular (11 year) and recently reported grand (350–400 year) solar cycles caused by actions of the double solar dynamo. In addition, oscillations of the baseline (zero-line) of magnetic field with a period of 1950 ± 95 years (a super-grand cycle) are discovered by applying a running averaging filter to suppress large-scale oscillations of 11 year cycles. Latest minimum of the baseline oscillations is found to coincide with the grand solar minimum (the Maunder minimum) occurred before the current super-grand cycle start. Since then the baseline magnitude became slowly increasing towards its maximum at 2600 to be followed by its decrease and minimum at ~3700.

These oscillations of the baseline solar magnetic field are found associated with a long-term solar inertial motion about the barycenter of the solar system and closely linked to an increase of solar irradiance and terrestrial temperature in the past two centuries.

This trend is anticipated to continue in the next six centuries that can lead to a further natural increase of the terrestrial temperature by more than 2.5 °C by 2600.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Until recently, solar activity was accepted to be one of the important factors defining the temperature on Earth and other planets.

But that doesn't give us the answer we want so shut up.

[Chode]

oh no's were all gonna die by the year 2600!!! wait, wut???

[DuncanWaring]

Ping.

[Rebelbase]

Nice, some light reading before bedtime.

[bunkerhill7]

Beware of wax-winged Greeks flying in a double dynamo.

[Inyo-Mono]

Bookmark.

[JohnBovenmyer]

I’ve heard her say in a youtube video (dated 2018 IIRC, perhaps earlier) that we should know whether her prediction of a solar grand minimum was correct within 3 years. IE. “global warming” is going to meet an cold death so dramatic that alGore’s acolytes won’t be able to save it. And probably in time to help re-elect Trump. It won’t be fun and will probably be hard on a lot of us, but it can take down all the big Green Libs it may be worth it. I might live to see warmth return; I just need to outlast my parent’s current mark by a decade.

[Wonder Warthog]

So, for the next thirty years, things will get cooler, then solar irradiance will over-ride the cooling and things will get warmer. HOW MUCH cooler??

[CedarDave]

HOW MUCH cooler??

She doesn't say, but it will be comparable to that in the middle ages:

Little Ice Age

[monkeyshine]

Interesting and thanks for the link. From the wikipedia entry it seems the brunt of the little ice age was felt north of 50 degrees parallel and lasted a few 100 years. Iceland was really ice, Greenland was never green, the rivers of Britain and Netherlands froze. But only in the winters. Britain used to have a holiday celebrating the frost on the Thames river until it was dredged so it flows too fast to freeze.