Civil War II Weather Report: Spicy Time Coming

Burning Platform ^ | June 4, 2019 | John Wilder

[vannrox]

Way back in 1998, I ended up with one of the neatest jobs that I had – assessing risks to a major corporation.  The Internet was new at work, and I was being paid to research potential disasters.  It was so interesting and so much fun I felt guilty.  In researching disasters and risk, I came across Y2K.  For those that don’t remember, there was a concern that, as a result of programmers only using two digits to store year information in computers, that many computers and computer programs would cease to function when the calendar flipped over to 00.

There were multiple websites and personalities that were writing about Y2K, and one that I went to from time to time was Cory Hamasaki’s Y2K Weather Report.  Hamasaki was a programmer (he has since passed away) and he had an inside perspective of the ongoing work that was required to keep the systems working.  As a result of his insider knowledge he bought an AR, a lot of food, and spent New Year’s Eve at his remote cabin.

Obviously, the systems kept working.

Not my original.  And I’m sorry.

We live, however, in spicy times, with the potential for them becoming even spicier (I got the Spicy Time meme from Western Rifle Shooters (LINK), which really should be on your daily reading list).  I’ve written several articles about the potential for Civil War, and studied and thought quite a bit about it.  As such, this is the inaugural edition of John Wilder’s Civil War II Weather Report.  I anticipate putting it out monthly.  This first issue will probably be a bit longer than later issues, since I’m putting the framework together and explaining the background.

I’m attempting to put together a framework that measures where we are on the continuum between peace and war.  I’ll even try to develop some sort of measures that show if the level of danger is increasing or decreasing.  Civil wars don’t happen all at once, and like a strong storm, they require the atmosphere to be right.  A weather report is probably a good metaphor.

If you haven’t seen it, the guy with the trident was the weatherman in Anchorman.  And when he has a trident?  People die.

So, to review the future, let’s start by looking at Civil War I so we understand what happened, and what the potential differences are.

Civil War I was:

• Based on philosophical differences – the views of the people, North and South were pretty similar, except that the Northerners were descended from Puritans who sailed on the Mayflower, and the Southerners were descended from the Norman conquerors that took England in 1066 but got booted out after having lost a war in England. Although the North and South were the same people, more or less, with the same heritage, there were enough differences to lead to a war.  And it was a doozy.

Civil War II is different because:

• Certainly we are not the same people today compared to when we generally unified ethnically. Civil War II will likely be fought on the basis of conflicting culture, identity and ideology.

Civil War I was:

• Fought by armies, mostly, with identified geographical centers.

Civil War II is different because:

• At the early stages, at least, Civil War II won’t be fought by armies, and there won’t be defined geographical concentrations. Armies are better at killing people and breaking stuff, but irregulars are way better at atrocity.  Expect the initial stages of hot war to be filled with some pretty rough stuff.

Civil War I was:

• Characterized by a general adherence to the rules of war, though there were some war crimes on either side.

Civil War II is different because:

• There has been a tendency of civil wars in this century to have increasing levels of atrocity during the war. This will continue.

Civil War I was:

• Fought with the intent of reunification (by the North), and separation (by the South). The basic desire of the North was to reunify the country, admittedly under more comprehensive Federal control.  Reconstruction sucked, but the goal was a single country.  That’s why all the Confederate statues were tolerated, and even encouraged.

Civil War II is different because:

• I expect whoever wins to pursue a policy of revenge at the end, especially if it’s the Communists. This is founded based on every single communist revolution ever.  The end of Civil War I occurred in a growing young country with the opportunity to move West.  Now?  Whoever wins will cleanse whatever areas they take.

Civil War I was:

• Fought by organized, elected governments.

Civil War II is different because:

• I’m thinking that one side might be a Caesar-type leading a partial military coalition versus Leftist irregulars, but I might be wrong on this one.

I decided to see what other studies had been done about more recent civil wars, and found that James Fearon and David Laitin (from Stanford) did a study in 2003 on civil wars during the 20^th Century (LINK).  Here’s what they found:

• Civil Wars had a median duration of six years
• Sub-Saharan Africa: 34 wars
• Asia: 33 wars
• North Africa and the Middle East: 17 wars
• Latin America: 15 wars
• Eastern Europe/Former Soviet Union: 13 wars
• The West: 2 wars

Why do civil wars develop?  It’s my bet that political scientists are like economists – six political scientists will generate 15 incorrect theories over coffee each morning, although I, for one, have no idea why we would think we would have a more stable country if we import people who keep having civil wars all of the time.  Fearon and Laitin came up with three different types of civil wars:

• Ethnic: “You other people suck.”
• Nationalist: “We want our own country, because you other people suck.”
• Insurgent: “We want to be the boss, because you suck.”

Okay, I don’t know who the originator was of this meme, but it still cracks me up.

Civil wars were non-existent in ethnically homogeneous and rich countries during the time period of Fearon and Laitin’s study.  As the United States was essentially ethnically homogeneous and rich during Civil War I, you can see that, just like the Revolution, something unique was going on here.  We decided to fight over principles.

Fearon and Laitin had several graphs that pointed out that increased wealth makes up for a portion of ethnic diversity – wealthier, non-homogeneous societies were less likely to go to war than poorer non-homogeneous ones.  Oddly, the very poorest ($48 to $800 a year) societies were less likely to go to war than societies that made just a little more money.  I guess just living was tough enough and going to war against other people who also had nothing was pointless.

One conclusion that Laitin and Fearon found was that civil war onset was no less frequent in a democracy.  Discrimination is not linked to civil war.  Income inequality is not linked to civil war.  Grievances aren’t the cause of civil war – they’re caused by civil wars.  What are risk the factors?

• New nations. I guess they haven’t developed the “don’t kill the president” tradition yet.
• People can hide in mountains.  I guess.
• Higher (absolute) population numbers. I told you big cities were bad.
• Oil exporting.
• High proportion of young males.
• Exporting commodities – risk seemed to peak at about 30% of GDP coming from commodity export.

Okay, not directly on point, but my primary export is memes.

So where does the United States stand as a country today?  I guess I’d throw out the thought that the first prerequisite for Civil War II is economic stress.  Why?  Average Joe won’t pick up an AR to go kill people in the next county if Joe has beer in the cooler and another episode of Naked and Afraid® next week.  If Joe has a job and a wife and a mortgage, well, there just won’t be action.  I meant war, silly.  Get your mind out of the gutter.  Our risk now is relatively low based on economics.

The United States is developing a higher absolute population.  That puts us at risk.

With immigration, the United States is forming a higher proportion of young males.  That puts us at risk.

State weakness is generally correlated with civil wars.  I’m torn on this one.  On one hand, we have the largest number of laws ever, along with a very large enforcement mechanism.  On the other?  Laws, both state and Federal are increasingly just ignored.  Victor Davis Hanson describes this paradox in California (LINK).

Nearby civil wars are associated with having a civil war.  Latin America is a civil war factory . . . so we’re at risk.

From the above five predictors of civil war, we have four of them.  Obviously this doesn’t tell the whole story.  The United States has a peaceful history, and, unlike a less established nation, the general populace is going to assume that today was good, so tomorrow will be pretty good, too.  And, generally that’s a good way to predict the future:  tomorrow will look like today.  Building the conditions for civil wars generally take years and what was abnormal becomes normal and tolerated as time goes by.

I’m going to attempt to try to make a metric showing the rise in various societal factors that I think might lead to civil war.  Some of the obvious are:

• Economic metrics – economic growth, unemployment, average wealth.
• Organized violence metrics – news of riots, other organized violence and protests.
• Political instability metrics – use of the term “impeach”, “civil war”, “electoral college.”
• Sites banned – numbers of political speakers silenced.
• Number of illegal immigrants per month. This shows greater economic stress or greater problems at their actual home.

Yeah, you just can’t add the North and the South together and end up with a Civil War.  Unless you do it in binary, then you could have a Bipolar War?

I’ll then combine them into an index.  If you have other items that you think can be tracked and should be tracked, let me know, and I may incorporate them, especially if they’re easy find and to incorporate, because I’m lazy.

Finally, Civil War won’t show up all at once, it may take years to get people to the idea that war is better than dealing with your weird neighbor by going into your house and watching a marathon of YouTube® videos where people turn $40 of propane and a bunch of aluminum cans into $10 worth of aluminum ingots.  It’s easier than fighting, right?

Following is my take on the steps that will lead to actual civil war.  I humbly call it the Wilder Countdown to Civil War II™.

1. Things are going well.
2. People begin to create groups.
3. People begin to look for preferential treatment.
4. Opposing ideology to the prevailing civic ideology is introduced and spread.
5. Those who have an opposing ideology are considered evil.
6. People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology.  Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
7. Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
8. Opposing sides develop governing/war structures.  Just in case.
9. Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
10. Open War.

I bolded number six.  That’s where I think we are right now.  Violence is occurring, but it’s not monthly, so I don’t think we’re at step seven.  Yet.  And I think we can live at step nine for a long time as long as we don’t have the bottom drop out of the economy.  Might there be some trigger that takes us to nine in a hurry?  Sure.  But I’m willing to bet that we see it take a few years, rather than a few months.  My bet is no sooner than 2024, but I’ve been wrong before, way back in 1989.

This is a project where I’m not only very open to contributions and anonymous contributions, I’m actively soliciting them.  Let me know if you’ve got commentary, criticism, news stories, or suggestions to make issue two (probably in early July) better, either down below or at my email, movingnorth@gmail.com

While we can’t predict catastrophic storms with 100% accuracy, it’s probably about time that someone started looking at the horizon to see what they could see.  Because I see what might be a storm coming.

[vannrox]

CW2 will resemble Finland, 1918, in which they still can't decide to call it the Finnish Civil War, War for Independence, or War to Eliminate Traitors. It will resemble the Yugoslav breakup [and bombing of Belgrade by Clinton] and the taking of Grozny during the Soviet Chechnyan War. And there will be atrocities everywhere.

--------------------------------------

I tend to agree with you on that. Those that say that CWII is not coming are NOT PAYING ATTENTION. This will not be some kind of minor skirmish, it will be whole-scale genocide.

How do I know?

Because ALL of the pre-genocidal preparations are currently put in place, and all that is missing is a progressive-liberal-democrat in the White House. Then... BOOM! Which is sort of the reason why the left is so unhinged when Hillery lost. Their timetable, and their dreams were trashed. However, everything is still in place. Donald Trump isn't doing anything about the prep work, that I can see, so we are just treading water until the left takes power.

You all might want to check out the checklist... We are not at a "6" or a "7". It's much more advanced than that.

What the Progressive Socialist Liberals have in store for Conservatives

[sauropod]

bkmk

[Jamestown1630]

I’m not really concerned about war - civil or otherwise - right now; and I haven’t followed this thread much lately.

But since it’s the ‘prepper’ ping-list, I’m wondering if anyone has posted about the possible repercussions we may face due to the massive flooding and inability to plant crops that are taking place.

What items do people think will be in short supply or raising greatly in price?

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

Jamestown1630:"What items do people think will be in short supply
or raising greatly in price?"

Crop (corn)(soybeans):
Ag Source :
https://www.agweb.com/article/crop-progress-preview-how-much-has-been-planted/

The U.S. corn planting pace this year has been one for the record books.
In fact, 2019 marks the slowest pace in USDA records dating back to 1980.

As of May 26, only 58% of the country’s estimated 92.8 million corn acres have been planted.
The five-year average for this notch on the calendar is 90%.
Soybean planting is only at 29% complete on the U.S.’s 84.6 million acres planted.
The five-year average for late May is 66% planted.
How many acres of corn and soybeans were planted in the last week?
The grain markets are bracing for today’s release of the Crop Progress report,
says Paul Georgy, president and CEO of Allendale and an AgWeb.com blogger.

“Trade is looking for corn planting at 68%-70% complete (58% last week, 97% last year and 97% 5-year average),” he says.
“Soybean planting is expected at 40% (29% last week, 87% last year and 75% 5-year average).”
Some areas of farm country and the Corn Belt did have some dry weather over the weekend, says Joe Vaclavik,
founder and president of Standard Grain and an AgWeb.com blogger.

“Portions of Iowa, Illinois, Ohio have been dry for the last three or four days,
although we certainly saw some scattered showers,” he says.
“Drier weather was also seen in some portions of North Dakota, South Dakota.”

Today’s planting progress numbers are a big guessing game, Vaclavik says.
“It seems like that maybe progress was accelerated here over the weekend, so I don't know where the planting number
for corn will come in today—maybe 70%, maybe 75%? I don't know, it is very difficult.”
----------------------------------
Livestock (meat)
News source :
https://www.agweb.com/article/corn-surge-fuels-biggest-meat-selloff-of-19-amid-feed-cost-fear/

"(Bloomberg) -- Shares in meat companies like Tyson Foods Inc. and Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. have been rallying
on expectations of a global protein shortage due to a hog disease in China.
Now a spike in corn and soybean prices is fueling the biggest selloff of the year.

The rally in crop prices -- as wet weather keeps U.S. farmers from planting
-- signals higher feed prices for the animals that the meat companies raise.

Top U.S. meat producer Tyson dropped as much as 5% on Wednesday, the most since November.
Chicken producer Pilgrim’s sank as much as 7%, the most since December.
Brazilian giants JBS SA and BRF SA led declines in the benchmark Ibovespa equity index.

The selloff may present buying opportunities, said Rebecca Scheuneman, an analyst with Morningstar Investment Service.
Crop price gains “will not overcome the margin improvement we expect to see
in protein businesses, because pricing will be so much better with the massive protein shortage”
coming due to African swine fever in China, she said.

Companies with significant U.S. production such as JBS, Pilgrim’s and Marfrig Global Foods SA are most impacted
in any scenario of tighter feed supplies, according to a report by BTG Pactual analysts led by Thiago Duarte.
“We still think the African swine fever impacts (in Asia)may offset all that,” the BTG analysts said.

To be sure, meat companies are still among the best-performing stocks this year.
JBS is up 84%, Pilgrim’s Pride has climbed 63% and Tyson has gained 44%.
China, the biggest hog producer and consumer, is projected to lose 10% of its pork production
this year due to the disease, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The nation’s imports are forecast record high in 2019.

"That could result in an unprecedented shortfall of pork that will lift global protein prices.
Chicken producers are in particular expected to benefit, as a cheaper substitute for pork.
China’s beef imports are already touching new records.
The disease is spreading to other Asian countries, like Vietnam. "

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

Jamestown1630 :" What items do people think will be in short supply or raising greatly in price? "

Every day that a crop is not planted, will generally result in less crop production.
The Ag page cited above, indicated that farmers in the flooded effected areas are looking to change to shorter maturity
seed varieties in order to make up for expected crop shortfalls.
Truth be told, there isn't enough seed of shorter maturing crops around, due to the unexpected, and unanticipated demand.
Many times, farmers will hold back some of their corn from last year, to use as seed for this years crop .., howver,
after silos being flooded, the moist seed has germinated within the silo,
thus the silo has a "Blow-out", and the seed is no longer viable for planting.
The corn and soybean crops are used for plastics, food production, manufacturing, and for forage for livestock.

[Rebelbase]

" The reason you didn’t experience anything is hundreds of thousands of professionals in every industry worked diligently to fix the systems prior to the big day"

Initech !

[Ransomed]

Has there ever been a civil war where the poorest people were the most likely to be obese, generally unused to any sort of prolonged and difficult physical labor, and were generally very well entertained?

Freegards

[tbw2]

People have two ways to persuade others - speech and violence. When you deny them the ability to speak, all they have left is violence - and you don’t want that. So let them speak.
Dr. Jordan Peterson.

[grumpygresh]

Any conflict between right and left has been will continue to be used by the government to justify more government, totalitarianism, less liberty.

If there is any revolution or CW it will be a fight against the government. The agencies and bureaucrats will stick with the SQ. A disgruntled military could ride the popular wave like Napoleon.

[Jamestown1630]

Well, that’s certainly....exhaustive!

And I’m exhausted just reading it.

G’Nite, TIK :-)

[kennyboy509]

you made my day!!

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

Jamestown1630 :" Well, that’s certainly....exhaustive!
And I’m exhausted just reading it."

In the short form :
The cost of grain and forage will go up
and when the cost of forage for beef and chicken will go up
so also will the cost of meat protein come down due to farmers cutting and culling their cost to feed livestock
and then the price for meat protein is expected to rise.
It is the law of "supply and demand", since there is world-wide demand for protein,
while cropland is under water due to flooding.

[Jamestown1630]

Gotcha.

Going to the shopping store, to buy lots of canned meat!

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

Jamestown1630 :" Going to the shopping store, to buy lots of canned meat! "

Wait for the prices of meat to go down, as farms start to cull their livestock,
and then they over-supply the market,
..then buy !
Timing is everything !

[vanilla swirl]

CWII so far is being fought in digital space. Nearly everyone is on social media. Free speech doesn’t exist there and the rules constantly change. I’ve been banned 3 times for posts that were 6-7 years old, I insulted the beloved pedophile prophet. The left has successfully convinced itself and half the country that guns are bad, they couldn’t fight if they had to! The only way they know is the digital fight.
Today it’s banned from social media, tomorrow it’s your credit card turned off because you bought a box of ammo at Walmart. Then it’s lose your business because you refuse to bake a cake. Lose your cell phone service because you called up a buddy to go hunting. Home mortgage revoked because you tithe to one of those evil homophobic churches. You get the picture. The left don’t have to resort to guns.

[DuncanWaring]

About the CWII Ping List

The CWII Ping List is short for Civil War II. It is NOT a list of people advocating another Civil War in America. It is a list of people who are interested in the parallels between the Civil War (or War Between the States, if you prefer) and our current situation, or more generally are noting the references to a 'coming Civil War' that are made in the press.

Of course sometimes this is merely a figure of speech, such as "The Tea Parties are fighting a civil war for the heart of the GOP". This would not merit a CWII ping.

On the other hand someone saying something like "The events in California are reminiscent of what happened in Yugoslavia in the period proceeding the Civil War" would merit a ping.

FR rules do not permit advocating for the overthrow of the Republic, and I am not aware of anyone doing so on the list. Still many do see that as the political climate worsens we may be heading in a direction that makes such a conflict all but inevitable, particularly if other avenues for resolving our differences are taken away. Such as widespread vote fraud by leftists making elections meaningless, or a small cadre of judges over-ruling all attempts to end destructive policies over the clear will of the people.

The correct keyword tag for the Civil War II ping list is "CWII". Please Freep Mail me to get on the list

[sport]

I am with you on that. People are satisfied, if not happy. They are getting all the sex they want. All the food they want. And all the dope they want. While they could always do with more of the afore mentioned, they will make do with what they have. The Government may get heavy handed from time to time, but they are getting the other guy, not me. I have it good.

By 2025 the muslims should be at a point percentage wise that they start causing all sorts of trouble. Things such as blowing people and buildings up. Cutting off people's heads. Shooting up malls, the crowds at sporting events, and other places.

[Hot Tabasco]

There will be no CW II as long as people have jobs, mortgages, car payments, kids in college, kids in school and soccer on weekends.........

[Alas Babylon!]

...with atrocities especially in the South.

Why especially in the South?

While the South has a lot of blacks, much of them are rural blacks, not as prone to violence and hate.

I would think the violence would be mostly in the big cities, especially those with ghettos and slums where a lot of people have no jobs and lots of idle time...

[CodeToad]

Which will last about 6 months after the next democrat becomes president.