I’m not really concerned about war - civil or otherwise - right now; and I haven’t followed this thread much lately.
But since it’s the ‘prepper’ ping-list, I’m wondering if anyone has posted about the possible repercussions we may face due to the massive flooding and inability to plant crops that are taking place.
What items do people think will be in short supply or raising greatly in price?
Crop (corn)(soybeans):
Ag Source :
https://www.agweb.com/article/crop-progress-preview-how-much-has-been-planted/
The U.S. corn planting pace this year has been one for the record books.
In fact, 2019 marks the slowest pace in USDA records dating back to 1980.
As of May 26, only 58% of the country’s estimated 92.8 million corn acres have been planted.
The five-year average for this notch on the calendar is 90%.
Soybean planting is only at 29% complete on the U.S.’s 84.6 million acres planted.
The five-year average for late May is 66% planted.
How many acres of corn and soybeans were planted in the last week?
The grain markets are bracing for today’s release of the Crop Progress report,
says Paul Georgy, president and CEO of Allendale and an AgWeb.com blogger.
“Trade is looking for corn planting at 68%-70% complete (58% last week, 97% last year and 97% 5-year average),” he says.
“Soybean planting is expected at 40% (29% last week, 87% last year and 75% 5-year average).”
Some areas of farm country and the Corn Belt did have some dry weather over the weekend, says Joe Vaclavik,
founder and president of Standard Grain and an AgWeb.com blogger.
“Portions of Iowa, Illinois, Ohio have been dry for the last three or four days,
although we certainly saw some scattered showers,” he says.
“Drier weather was also seen in some portions of North Dakota, South Dakota.”
Today’s planting progress numbers are a big guessing game, Vaclavik says.
“It seems like that maybe progress was accelerated here over the weekend, so I don't know where the planting number
for corn will come in today—maybe 70%, maybe 75%? I don't know, it is very difficult.”
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Livestock (meat)
News source :
https://www.agweb.com/article/corn-surge-fuels-biggest-meat-selloff-of-19-amid-feed-cost-fear/
"(Bloomberg) -- Shares in meat companies like Tyson Foods Inc. and Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. have been rallying
on expectations of a global protein shortage due to a hog disease in China.
Now a spike in corn and soybean prices is fueling the biggest selloff of the year.
The rally in crop prices -- as wet weather keeps U.S. farmers from planting
-- signals higher feed prices for the animals that the meat companies raise.
Top U.S. meat producer Tyson dropped as much as 5% on Wednesday, the most since November.
Chicken producer Pilgrim’s sank as much as 7%, the most since December.
Brazilian giants JBS SA and BRF SA led declines in the benchmark Ibovespa equity index.
The selloff may present buying opportunities, said Rebecca Scheuneman, an analyst with Morningstar Investment Service.
Crop price gains “will not overcome the margin improvement we expect to see
in protein businesses, because pricing will be so much better with the massive protein shortage”
coming due to African swine fever in China, she said.
Companies with significant U.S. production such as JBS, Pilgrim’s and Marfrig Global Foods SA are most impacted
in any scenario of tighter feed supplies, according to a report by BTG Pactual analysts led by Thiago Duarte.
“We still think the African swine fever impacts (in Asia)may offset all that,” the BTG analysts said.
To be sure, meat companies are still among the best-performing stocks this year.
JBS is up 84%, Pilgrim’s Pride has climbed 63% and Tyson has gained 44%.
China, the biggest hog producer and consumer, is projected to lose 10% of its pork production
this year due to the disease, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The nation’s imports are forecast record high in 2019.
"That could result in an unprecedented shortfall of pork that will lift global protein prices.
Chicken producers are in particular expected to benefit, as a cheaper substitute for pork.
China’s beef imports are already touching new records.
The disease is spreading to other Asian countries, like Vietnam. "
Every day that a crop is not planted, will generally result in less crop production.
The Ag page cited above, indicated that farmers in the flooded effected areas are looking to change to shorter maturity
seed varieties in order to make up for expected crop shortfalls.
Truth be told, there isn't enough seed of shorter maturing crops around, due to the unexpected, and unanticipated demand.
Many times, farmers will hold back some of their corn from last year, to use as seed for this years crop .., howver,
after silos being flooded, the moist seed has germinated within the silo,
thus the silo has a "Blow-out", and the seed is no longer viable for planting.
The corn and soybean crops are used for plastics, food production, manufacturing, and for forage for livestock.