Posted on 06/04/2019 6:19:05 AM PDT by vannrox
Way back in 1998, I ended up with one of the neatest jobs that I had assessing risks to a major corporation. The Internet was new at work, and I was being paid to research potential disasters. It was so interesting and so much fun I felt guilty. In researching disasters and risk, I came across Y2K. For those that dont remember, there was a concern that, as a result of programmers only using two digits to store year information in computers, that many computers and computer programs would cease to function when the calendar flipped over to 00.
There were multiple websites and personalities that were writing about Y2K, and one that I went to from time to time was Cory Hamasakis Y2K Weather Report. Hamasaki was a programmer (he has since passed away) and he had an inside perspective of the ongoing work that was required to keep the systems working. As a result of his insider knowledge he bought an AR, a lot of food, and spent New Years Eve at his remote cabin.
Obviously, the systems kept working.
Not my original. And Im sorry.
We live, however, in spicy times, with the potential for them becoming even spicier (I got the Spicy Time meme from Western Rifle Shooters (LINK), which really should be on your daily reading list). Ive written several articles about the potential for Civil War, and studied and thought quite a bit about it. As such, this is the inaugural edition of John Wilders Civil War II Weather Report. I anticipate putting it out monthly. This first issue will probably be a bit longer than later issues, since Im putting the framework together and explaining the background.
Im attempting to put together a framework that measures where we are on the continuum between peace and war. Ill even try to develop some sort of measures that show if the level of danger is increasing or decreasing. Civil wars dont happen all at once, and like a strong storm, they require the atmosphere to be right. A weather report is probably a good metaphor.
If you havent seen it, the guy with the trident was the weatherman in Anchorman. And when he has a trident? People die.
So, to review the future, lets start by looking at Civil War I so we understand what happened, and what the potential differences are.
Civil War I was:
Civil War II is different because:
Civil War I was:
Civil War II is different because:
Civil War I was:
Civil War II is different because:
Civil War I was:
Civil War II is different because:
Civil War I was:
Civil War II is different because:
I decided to see what other studies had been done about more recent civil wars, and found that James Fearon and David Laitin (from Stanford) did a study in 2003 on civil wars during the 20th Century (LINK). Heres what they found:
Why do civil wars develop? Its my bet that political scientists are like economists six political scientists will generate 15 incorrect theories over coffee each morning, although I, for one, have no idea why we would think we would have a more stable country if we import people who keep having civil wars all of the time. Fearon and Laitin came up with three different types of civil wars:
Okay, I dont know who the originator was of this meme, but it still cracks me up.
Civil wars were non-existent in ethnically homogeneous and rich countries during the time period of Fearon and Laitins study. As the United States was essentially ethnically homogeneous and rich during Civil War I, you can see that, just like the Revolution, something unique was going on here. We decided to fight over principles.
Fearon and Laitin had several graphs that pointed out that increased wealth makes up for a portion of ethnic diversity wealthier, non-homogeneous societies were less likely to go to war than poorer non-homogeneous ones. Oddly, the very poorest ($48 to $800 a year) societies were less likely to go to war than societies that made just a little more money. I guess just living was tough enough and going to war against other people who also had nothing was pointless.
One conclusion that Laitin and Fearon found was that civil war onset was no less frequent in a democracy. Discrimination is not linked to civil war. Income inequality is not linked to civil war. Grievances arent the cause of civil war theyre caused by civil wars. What are risk the factors?
Okay, not directly on point, but my primary export is memes.
So where does the United States stand as a country today? I guess Id throw out the thought that the first prerequisite for Civil War II is economic stress. Why? Average Joe wont pick up an AR to go kill people in the next county if Joe has beer in the cooler and another episode of Naked and Afraid® next week. If Joe has a job and a wife and a mortgage, well, there just wont be action. I meant war, silly. Get your mind out of the gutter. Our risk now is relatively low based on economics.
The United States is developing a higher absolute population. That puts us at risk.
With immigration, the United States is forming a higher proportion of young males. That puts us at risk.
State weakness is generally correlated with civil wars. Im torn on this one. On one hand, we have the largest number of laws ever, along with a very large enforcement mechanism. On the other? Laws, both state and Federal are increasingly just ignored. Victor Davis Hanson describes this paradox in California (LINK).
Nearby civil wars are associated with having a civil war. Latin America is a civil war factory . . . so were at risk.
From the above five predictors of civil war, we have four of them. Obviously this doesnt tell the whole story. The United States has a peaceful history, and, unlike a less established nation, the general populace is going to assume that today was good, so tomorrow will be pretty good, too. And, generally thats a good way to predict the future: tomorrow will look like today. Building the conditions for civil wars generally take years and what was abnormal becomes normal and tolerated as time goes by.
Im going to attempt to try to make a metric showing the rise in various societal factors that I think might lead to civil war. Some of the obvious are:
Yeah, you just cant add the North and the South together and end up with a Civil War. Unless you do it in binary, then you could have a Bipolar War?
Ill then combine them into an index. If you have other items that you think can be tracked and should be tracked, let me know, and I may incorporate them, especially if theyre easy find and to incorporate, because Im lazy.
Finally, Civil War wont show up all at once, it may take years to get people to the idea that war is better than dealing with your weird neighbor by going into your house and watching a marathon of YouTube® videos where people turn $40 of propane and a bunch of aluminum cans into $10 worth of aluminum ingots. Its easier than fighting, right?
Following is my take on the steps that will lead to actual civil war. I humbly call it the Wilder Countdown to Civil War II.
I bolded number six. Thats where I think we are right now. Violence is occurring, but its not monthly, so I dont think were at step seven. Yet. And I think we can live at step nine for a long time as long as we dont have the bottom drop out of the economy. Might there be some trigger that takes us to nine in a hurry? Sure. But Im willing to bet that we see it take a few years, rather than a few months. My bet is no sooner than 2024, but Ive been wrong before, way back in 1989.
This is a project where Im not only very open to contributions and anonymous contributions, Im actively soliciting them. Let me know if youve got commentary, criticism, news stories, or suggestions to make issue two (probably in early July) better, either down below or at my email, movingnorth@gmail.com
While we cant predict catastrophic storms with 100% accuracy, its probably about time that someone started looking at the horizon to see what they could see. Because I see what might be a storm coming.
It was actually quite eye-opening how insidious some of the problems were and how things would instantly fly, not run, but fly off the tracks.
Made a nice chunk of change for the work, too.
Very astute.
By 2025 we will be in the Tribulation and most muslims will have been killed in the Ezekiel 38 War.
Yes, it wasn’t merely a problem of the electrical system shutting down. You had the very real potential for extremely serious physical damage to big components like steam turbines and generators. The machines could have been destroyed and might have taken taken years to replace.
It could be.
I was talking about the South in the 1780’s. Loyalists and Patriots both used the pretense of the war to settle scores with their neighbors.
Thanks! Sorry for my Southern paranoia!
True. Most people just aren't motivated.
But the Troubles, yes. If a few flag-waving conservatives would wander into the wrong neighborhood, bad things would happen. If a few antifa types would wander into the wrong neighborhood, bad things would happen.
You're talking about very small groups that might be motivated to get violent. Most people are just "live and let live" types. The "wanderers" would have to be really looking for a fight.
There could be violence if something really divisive happens - another undecided election, a major supreme court decision, a complete collapse of the economy - but most people are too fat and happy. And that's good.
It takes a long time for the kind of troubles familiar from Ireland or the Balkans or the Caucasus or the Middle East to develop. Groups were living side by side, but divided and hostile to each other for a long time. You knew which group you belonged to and people told you your whole life long not to trust those in the other group. I could see outbreaks of racial violence in a few parts of the country, but red and blue Republicans and Democrats attacking each other is less likely.
Now an anecdote: I had to go to a family meeting this week. My brother and I stopped at McDonald's. The TV there was showing Fox News. I was a little surprised, and my liberal brother made some sarcastic comments quietly to himself. But most people just sat there eating their food. This was in a very liberal town outside a very liberal city in a very liberal state and nobody was jumping up and down screaming. You read stories about that on the Internet, but they don't reflect the reality that well.
Great post vannrox. This one has legs. I will be coming back here.
CW2 will go to whoever commands the Warthogs.
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