Skip to comments.[NOAA] Winter Outlook favors warmer temperatures for much of U.S. [of-course]
Posted on 12/01/2018 7:04:17 AM PST by daniel1212
A mild winter could be in store for much of the United States this winter according to NOAAs Climate Prediction Center. In the U.S. Winter Outlook for December through February, above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern and western U.S., Alaska and Hawaii.
Additionally, El Nino has a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing. We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAAs Climate Prediction Center. Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.
Other climate patterns that can affect winter weather are challenging to predict on a seasonal time scale. The Arctic Oscillation influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and could result in below-average temperatures in the eastern part of the U.S. The Madden-Julian Oscillation can contribute to heavy precipitation events along the West Coast which could play a large role in shaping the upcoming winter, especially if El Nino is weak, as forecasters predict.
Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western U.S., with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.
The Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures .
No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures. [blod emphasis mine]
Yes, that is almost true. Unless you live in East Texas, smile.
So which is it? Cold or mild?
My take is "they" (those vague, undefined, shadowy officials or experts in the background...somewhere) put out forecasts all over the board so they'll never be wrong.
Not unlike those serial scams the climate change crowd has been running on the population for decades. "They" troll enough uniformed, bottom feeders and someone is bound to believe them. Enough do, so they continue their hoax.
Cold or mild makes no difference to me. I still get up and do the same chores on the farm like I always do. It is what it is.
Yep, just got done shoveling snow this morning (in MT) ...now what did the article say...
Every few weeks they will update their forecast. By the end of the winter, they will once again be proven 100% accurate with their predictions.
Vermont has a conservative? I though that was sparse in MA but more rare in Vermont. Frozen chosen.
Yeah, this arid weather is really killing us!
3 feet of snow in Tahoe over the last couple of days and snowing HARD right now!
You post the Goebbels’ wedding pic on a weather thread?
What, weather forecasts are the Big Lie?
the whole warming shtick
Yes. We had a cold, wet fall this year in SE Wisconsin. It got cold and snowy early too. I had heard back in the summer it would be like that through December, then moderate in January because of el nino. I hope so.
Why all the comments about coldest fall and weather in November when the article is forecasting winter temps, not fall?
But remember, whatever happens it must be because of Climate Change.
If it’s 10 degrees on Sunday, it must be Climate Change (said with and echo chamber)
If it’s 80 degrees on Tuesday, it must be Climate Change (cue the echo chamber yet again)
In fact, all ordinary phenomena outside of a 72 degree day with no wind is....Climate Change (there’s that echo again)
Then there is this from Brian Donegan, September 18 2018 at weather.com: https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2018-09-17-fall-early-winter-temperature-outlook-october-november-december
Also, is it not odd that not once in 13 consecutive 3 month NOAA forecasts are below average temps forecast, and it seems there is no list for past forecast prediction graphics?
Hurricane season: Most active on record for Atlantic, Pacific combined https://www.usatoday.com/story/.../2018/10/.../hurricane-season...record.../174122600... Oct 23, 2018 - When all the hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic and Pacific are added together, the 2018 hurricane season is the most active season ...
Why would data matching your predictions be of any value?
What’s important is your intent!
And having a really groovy theory, even if it’s nonsense...
It's n not data matching , but just the opposite, and with above average temps being what is almost always predicted but which hardly seems to be consistently true.
And the Atlantic hurricane outlook was clearly off.
NOAA's 2018 updated Atlantic hurricane outlook indicates a 60% chance this season will be below normal, a 30% chance it will be near-normal, and a 10% chance it will be more active than normal.
It has been warmer than normal here in the PNW.
And no, I don’t believe in significant anthropomorphic-caused global warming.
But I do believe in El Nino.
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