Thirty Years On, How Well Do Global Warming Predictions Stand Up?

WSJ ^ | June 21, 2018 7:24 p.m. ET | By Pat Michaels and Ryan Maue

[Red Badger]

James Hansen issued dire warnings in the summer of 1988. Today earth is only modestly warmer.

James E. Hansen wiped sweat from his brow. Outside it was a record-high 98 degrees on June 23, 1988, as the NASA scientist testified before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources during a prolonged heat wave, which he decided to cast as a climate event of cosmic significance. He expressed to the senators his “high degree of confidence” in “a cause-and-effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed warming.”

With that testimony and an accompanying paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research, Mr. Hansen lit the bonfire of the greenhouse vanities, igniting a world-wide debate that continues today about the energy structure of the entire planet. President Obama’s environmental policies were predicated on similar models of rapid, high-cost warming. But the 30th anniversary of Mr. Hansen’s predictions affords an opportunity to see how well his forecasts have done—and to reconsider environmental policy accordingly.

Mr. Hansen’s testimony described three possible scenarios for the future of carbon dioxide emissions. He called Scenario A “business as usual,” as it maintained the accelerating emissions growth typical of the 1970s and ’80s. This scenario predicted the earth would warm 1 degree Celsius by 2018. Scenario B set emissions lower, rising at the same rate today as in 1988. Mr. Hansen called this outcome the “most plausible,” and predicted it would lead to about 0.7 degree of warming by this year. He added a final projection, Scenario C, which he deemed highly unlikely: constant emissions beginning in 2000. In that forecast, temperatures would rise a few tenths of a degree before flatlining after 2000.

[SES1066]

BTW, note that that whole 1988 Congressional hearing was a set-up ... Dem staffers deliberately arranged for the AC to be turned off so everyone would feel really warm

Al Gore headed this Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources meeting (I believe) and this was his public start as a 'Environmentalist'. Taking up this 'mantle' probably helped him to become Vice President to Bill Clinton 1993-2001.

[Chode]

they shoulda gone back 40 years when a coming ice age was predicted...

[trebb]

Ever wonder why "freepathons" drag out longer and longer...?

I doubt it's because some folks post inaccessible links - my observations are that far too many who consider themselves "principled conservatives" are hypocrites who blow a lot of smoke but refuse to put their money where their mouth is...too many lazy/cheap/FReeloaders out there pretending to be what they are not.

[central_va]

If FR got rid of the globalists, the GOPe types, the free traders it would help a lot.....

[trebb]

Too many of the free trader types have no conviction of their stated ideals as they never seem to back anything that might cause them personal inconvenience...they might as well be Schumer-type Dems who think God is telling them to obstruct Trump.

Free traders here outnumber the Globalists and some who see the reality of the malfeasance of the Congress and the reality of what Trump is dealing with have been labeled "globalist" by those who think denying reality will make it go away.......