Moore's Law: If you're rich and famous you can have the blonde supermodel that's a foot taller than you.
Posted on 06/04/2018 10:12:53 AM PDT by ShadowAce
Earlier this year I lamented the inevitable death of Moore's Law - crushed between process node failures and exploits attacking execution efficiencies. Yet that top line failure of Moore's Law hides the fact that chips in general are now cheap.
So cheap that the cost of making a device "smart" - whether that means, aware, intelligent, connected, or something else altogether – is now trivial. We're therefore quickly transitioning from the Death of Moore's Law into the era of Moore's Revenge - where pretty much every manufactured object has a chip in it.
This is going to change the whole world, and it's going to begin with a fundamental reorientation of IT, away from the "pinnacle" desktops and servers, toward the "smart dust" everywhere in the world: collecting data, providing services - and offering up a near infinity of attack surfaces. Dumb is often harder to hack than smart, but - as we saw last month in the Z-Wave attack that impacted hundreds of millions of devices - once you've got a way in, enormous damage can result.
The focus on security will produce new costs for businesses - and it will be on IT to ensure those costs don't exceed the benefits of this massively chipped-and-connected world. It'll be a close-run thing.
It's also likely to be a world where nothing works precisely as planned. With so much autonomy embedded in our environment, the likelihood of unintended consequences amplifying into something unexpected becomes nearly guaranteed.
We may think the world is weird today, but once hundreds of billions of marginally intelligent and minimally autonomous systems start to have a go, that weirdness will begin to arc upwards exponentially. As @swiftonsecurity recently highlighted, utterly unexpected interactions now have potentially serious security consequences.
Once got called into a support issue, exec's Outlook always crashing. Turned out to be an Office Add-in from the BLUETOOTH DRIVER. — SwiftOnSecurity (@SwiftOnSecurity) November 26, 2016
When that kind of weird becomes common - your car doesn't start because your dishwasher is throwing a tantrum – it may dampen our enthusiasm for the connected world.
We'll need new skills as IT becomes something more like "deep ecology", springing from an intersection of systems thinking and profound awareness of the computing environment and the sorts of smart things interacting within it. That is bound to confuse straight-line thinkers used to problem/solution matrices rather than the more nuanced gardening we'll need to keep a profoundly out-of-control situation from going completely feral.
And when it does go feral - as it will, regularly - we'll need specialists to swoop in, diagnose and treat our complexly unwell ecosystems. Those are the 10x types in our immediate future - not the rockstar programmers but the patient, insightful folks who use experience and intuition to bring clarity to the most obscure of problems.
With the recent VISA TOESUP* (plus Telstra plus NAB) we've seen the shape of a connected world that charts its own path, irrespective of our designs: Man proposes, tech disposes. ®
If I had any, it might. When they were threatening to hook your new fridge to the interwebs, my comment was that they better ship it with a checking account, cause if it calls service, I'm sure as hell not paying for the service call.
Moore's Law: If you're rich and famous you can have the blonde supermodel that's a foot taller than you.
Smart homes are a dumb idea.
So are smart cars/trucks.
The only so called smart device in our home is a Nest thermostat that controls the heating/AC for the part of our home where we spend 98% of our time. A standard thermostat controls the heating/AC in the rest of the home. Since installing the Nest (four years ago), we consistently use less electricity/natural gas than similar sized an so called economical homes in our area.
My wife’s Lexus is 14 years, runs great and starts when we need it. I have the first Honda Ridge Line, and it starts when we need it. Like my wife’s Lexus, it has minimal computer trash to go wrong.
Why is starting when you need it important?
A lot of the vehicles today with all the computer gear on board often do not start.
Saturday, we were at a house warming party for friends. Women with newer vehicles at all price ranges were complaining about how often their new vehicles never start.
Many of their husbands with new $50K+ pickups have the same problem. Two contractors got their new in 2017 pickups declared lemons for not starting and other electronic problems.
Many of the new car owners told my wife to never get rid of her Lexus, and if she did, to let them know, so they could buy it.
Worked for Dennis the Menace Kucinich.
From a practical standpoint you are probably correct.
The reason that we have come as far as we have is that "information" doesn't necessarily have any mass. If one bit of information required the exclusive dedication of one particle, then what you say applies.
Can man create ever smaller particles to represent information? One interpretation of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle might be that we can represent a limitless amount of information if we are willing to wait an excessively long time to access that information.
Not smart, just ‘cheap’
Human intelligence will always find a way around the rote programmed limitations.
The perception that these thing are ‘foolproof’ — THAT is the real ignorance and stupidity.
"Before you use this toilet, we'd like you to review Google's Data Protection / Confidentiality Agreement and provide your consent. This 174-kB document can be downloaded..."
Regards,
Now, with more MOLECULES!
Maybe the info you're seeking has changed - and not the Internet?
Regards,
My independent car repair technician says one reason for failures of new vehicles is that the copper wire in the wiring harnesses is thinner because the number of connections required are greatly increased and they break easily.
He is also one of those intuitive persons who found and solved a problem with my 2001 Chevy P/U. After replacing the dash gauge display unit with a new one and having it fail almost immediately, he diagnosed it as a problem with the 17-year-old wiring harness. BUT, when he inserted the computer diagnostic tool, everything worked fine and showed no problems. His innovative solution: He found a small diagnostic unit that is only about 1" x 2" and it stays in the computer diagnostic receptacle all the time allowing all the gauges to work!
Moore’s Revenge has been replaced with Cole’s Law.
What you’re talking about is now referred to as AGI: Artifical General Intelligence.
“The focus on security will produce new costs for businesses - and it will be on IT to ensure those costs don’t exceed the benefits of this massively chipped-and-connected world. It’ll be a close-run thing.”
No, it won’t.
laws of systemantics:
- complex, complicated systems in general work poorly of not at all
- new systems generate new problems
- in complex systems malfunction and even total nonfunction may not be detectable for long periods, if ever
- large complex systems are beyond human capacity to evaluate
- systems tend to grow to fill the known universe, and growing systems create new problems
- complex complicated systems display antics
- complex complicated systems produce unexpected outcomes
- the total behavior of large systems cannot be predicted
- complex systems tend to oppose their own proper function
- the system itself does not do what it says it is doing
That’s a good one no matter how thin you slice it...
This sounds an awful lot like a bureaucracy and/or a large centralized government...
Thanks to ShadowAce for the ping!
My stupid toothbrush has an app and bluetooth. If it didn’t do such a nice job brushing my choppers, then I would burn it with fire.
It’s been many years, but I think it’s tI’m to re-read the novel “Dune”. It was forbiden to create a machine that “thought like a human” (ie. Artificial Intelligence) I thought that Frank Herbert is way out there.
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