Posted on 03/06/2018 4:42:30 PM PST by lasereye
Republicans are learning an uncomfortable reality about the political environment for 2018: Tax cuts, conservative culture-war staples, and even Nancy Pelosi herself probably won’t be enough to overcome the deep hole that President Trump has put them in. With the White House awash in scandal and struggling to articulate its agenda, the political mood has turned so grim that Republicans are in danger of losing an upcoming special election in the heart of Trump country.
That’s the lesson to draw from the surprisingly competitive campaign Democrat Conor Lamb is running in a Pittsburgh-area district Trump easily carried by 20 points, surviving millions of dollars in outside GOP attack ads portraying Lamb as a liberal in disguise. Even a close loss in such a reliably conservative area would raise red flags that Democrats are on the verge of a major landslide in the November midterms.
If Lamb wins, it would be an unmistakable verdict that the healthy economy and Trump tax cuts will be overshadowed by the administration’s dysfunction and roiling suburban anger. Though the economy may play to the GOP’s advantage, the culture wars have turned squarely in the Democratic Party’s favor—and that’s what matters in today’s politics.
Here’s how tricky things have gotten for Republicans: GOP outside groups have dramatically scaled back their ads promoting the party’s tax cut, with the messaging barely moving the needle in the district’s working-class confines. The latest round of advertisements focus on law-and-order issues, like immigration and crime. A new spot from the Paul Ryan-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC slams Lamb for supporting “amnesty to illegal immigrants” because he “worked in the Obama administration.” A National Republican Congressional Committee ad portrays Lamb as soft on crime because he negotiated a plea deal with a notorious drug kingpin during his tenure as a federal prosecutor. These culture-war ads are reminiscent of those run by Ed Gillespie in his failed Virginia gubernatorial campaign, and they carry the whiff of desperation.
Meanwhile, Republicans are sufficiently concerned about the energy from the Democratic base that CLF is distributing a mailer in suburban precincts of Allegheny County “thanking” Lamb for supporting gun rights. It’s a cynical attempt to dampen Democratic enthusiasm for his campaign. The mailer, first reported by The Washington Post, underscores how even in a district where Second Amendment support is strong, gun control has become a fresh rallying cry for a supercharged Democratic electorate post-Parkland.
In another warning sign for Republicans, there are indications that conservative-minded voters in this district value government entitlements as much as tax cuts. Lamb’s rebuttal to the GOP tax-cut argument was that he supported “middle-class tax cuts” but not ones that could lead to cuts to Social Security and Medicare. In an acknowledgment that the Democratic message resonated, a new CLF ad turns the tables and accuses Pelosi of supporting “massive Medicare cuts” while arguing that Lamb “won’t protect seniors.” As Republicans learned in the 2016 presidential campaign, the agenda backed by GOP donors doesn’t necessarily jibe with the issues that the GOP rank-and-file cares about—especially in a blue-collar district like this one.
Republicans are eager to pin a disappointing result in this election on their candidate—state Rep. Rick Saccone—but the reality is the race is being defined on Trump’s terms. Saccone is running as an unapologetic Trump supporter, calling himself the president’s “wingman” in an interview with National Journal last month. Trump will be campaigning for Saccone on March 10, and he is likely to promote his newly announced tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. It’s a protectionist position that Saccone quickly embraced, and one that is popular with the district’s sizable union membership.
This southwest Pennsylvania district is about as Trumpian as it gets: racially homogeneous, predominantly blue-collar, and filled with energy workers revolutionizing the region’s economy. To Lamb’s credit, he’s run a disciplined campaign and staked out moderate views on guns and fracking that have distinguished him from typical Democrats. But if Republicans can’t hold onto this seat with more than $9 million of outside GOP money invested here, it will serve as an awfully rude awakening to what’s likely to come for the midterms.
Exactly. Can’t blame loss of senate seat in Alabama on Trump. Next time try nominating a man who is intelligent, and has charisma. Roy Moore had neither.
Liberals have upped the intensity of their attacks the last couple of days. It is due to Trump’s decision to go after China?
Wasn’t it in Pennsylvania that judges drew new congressional districts that almost ensures a democrat win?
The GOP faithful have decided to let the Dems retake control it appears. This is not on the politicians. It’s on the voters.
The GOP has proven beyond all doubt that its existence serves no purpose.
Sir you are delusional.
Sir, you are a cheese eating surrender monkey. 80+ replies to your gaslighting troll bait post and you can’t be bothered to substantiate defend your position.
There is no chance the Dems take the Senate. All but the laziest and tantruming Never Trumpers like yourself know it.
I guess we’ll have to see how this plays out. I am guessing the rat doing well has more to do with him being a Marine vet who does not come across as a loon than it does with anything POTUS has or hasn’t done.
The GOP-e is so undercutting president Trump. That they’re gonna elect the entire sorozNazi- DNC cabal. Figure obama style dictatorship all over again Fuq the GOP-e!
My position is substantiated by the fact that they keep winning races in deep red districts, like the race in Missouri last month in a district that Trump carried by 30 points.
True to form, people here explained it away by the fact that St. Louis was within 20 miles of the district or something.
What would count as substantiation in your mind? I'm really wondering if after the Democrats take Congress and a bunch of State legislatures and State Houses in November that you'll continue to demand I substantiate my position.
I think you are smoking something..
a new CLF ad turns the tables and accuses Pelosi of supporting “massive Medicare cuts” while arguing that Lamb “won’t protect seniors.” As Republicans learned in the 2016 presidential campaign, the agenda backed by GOP donors doesn’t necessarily jibe with the issues that the GOP rank-and-file cares about—especially in a blue-collar district like this one.
Everybody keeps looking at all their reasons why Trump should be a positive for the midterms. Those accomplishments are already baked in the cake, old news and irrelevant. By November the tax cut and the rest won’t be influencing midterm voting.
Trump isn’t running. The potential problem is turnout, not policy.
Dems and ultra-libs are pissed and will turn out big.
The media will laud Dem candidates to the max and do everything possible to sink R candidates.
Some Trump voters are not really engaged on the state level, and they are unlikely to vote.
I predict Republican turnout will be lackluster. No, I’m predicting it will be lousy.
Can’t say whether the majorities in either house will switch, just saying Dems have the momentum. I don’t like any of this, but there it is.
Scott Adams has the exact opposite view you do, he thinks 18 will be a blood bath for democrats.
He called Trump very early.
Read post 11.
And don’t forget the elitist media wants people to believe the crap they make up. Don’t fall for it.
I’ll have to go listen to that, I’m curious to hear what’s behind his thinking.
On twitter.
Awash in scandal?
Hitlery’s collusion and conspiracy with the Russians was caused by Trump?
Anyone that following this story knows that Hitlery and Obama used the FBI to spy on Trump. Most of the the Dem base doesn’t know what planet they’re on let alone anything about Trump’s “scandals”
The uninformed voters don’t bother with mid-terms.
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