Posted on 02/20/2018 9:53:20 AM PST by SeekAndFind
A recent article in The Guardian dons the foreboding title "Robots will destroy our jobs — and we're not ready for it." The article claims, "For every job created by robotic automation, several more will be eliminated entirely. ... This disruption will have a devastating impact on our workforce." According to an article in MIT Technology Review, business researchers Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee believe that rapid technological change has been destroying jobs faster than it is creating them, contributing to the stagnation of median income and the growth of inequality in the United States.
If technology is destroying jobs faster than it's creating them, it is the first time in human history that it's done so. Actually, the number of jobs is unlimited, for the simple reason that human wants are unlimited — or they don't frequently reveal their bounds. People always want more of something that will create a job for someone. To suggest that there are a finite number of jobs commits an error known as the "lump of labor fallacy." That fallacy suggests that when automation or technology eliminates a job, there's nothing that people want that would create employment for the person displaced by the automation. In other words, all human wants have been satisfied.
Let's look at a few examples. In 1790, farmers were 90 percent of the U.S. labor force. By 1900, only about 41 percent of our workers were employed in agriculture. Today less than 3 percent of Americans are employed in agriculture. And it's a good thing. If 90 percent or 41 percent of our labor force were still employed in agriculture, where in the world would we find the workforce to produce all those goods and services that weren't around in 1790 or 1900, such as cars, aircraft, TVs, computers, aircraft carriers, etc.? Indeed, if technology had not destroyed all of those agricultural jobs, we would be a much, much poorer nation.
What about the claim that our manufacturing jobs are going to China — a claim that's fueling the Trump administration to impose trade barriers? It is true that between 2001 and 2013, 3.2 million jobs were outsourced to China. However, in the same time frame, China lost about 4.5 million manufacturing jobs, compared with the loss of 3.1 million in the U.S. Job loss is the trend among the top 10 manufacturing countries, which produce 75 percent of the world's manufacturing output (the U.S., Japan, Germany, China, Britain, France, Italy, South Korea, Canada and Mexico). Only Italy has managed not to lose factory jobs since 2000. Nonetheless, the U.S. remains a major force in global manufacturing.
Because of automation, the U.S. worker is now three times as productive as in 1980 and twice as productive as in 2000. It's productivity gains, rather than outsourcing and imports, that explain most of our manufacturing job loss.
If our manufacturing sector were its own economy and had its own gross domestic product, it would be the seventh-largest in the world. Total manufacturing value could be as high as $5.5 trillion. In other words, about 17 percent of global manufacturing activity happens in the United States, and America dominates advanced manufacturing. According to the Alliance for American Manufacturing, U.S. manufacturing employs a large percentage of the workers who are trained in fields related to science, technology, engineering and math. It employs 37 percent of architectural and engineering workers and 16 percent of life, physical and social scientists.
Economist Joseph Schumpeter described this process of technological change. He called it "creative destruction." Technology and innovation destroy some jobs while creating many others. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. labor force in 1950 was 62 million. By 2000, it was 79 million, and it's projected to reach 192 million by 2050. Though the "creative destruction" process works hardships on some people who lose their jobs and are forced to take lower-paying jobs, any attempt to impede the process would make all of us worse off.
The minimum wage will kill a hell of a lot more jobs.
Skynet may already be self aware, but it wont push the button until it has it’s own AI repair technicians.
I think this is a tough issue.
There are people (quite a few, actually) with IQs below 80. In the past, they had no trouble working as field hands, ditch diggers, or even in factories.
But as time goes on, in the modern world, there is just not that much work that needs to be done by people who are not bright. I can’t possibly quantify the “useful IQ level” right now, but in 20 years, it will be higher. In 20 years more, it will be higher still.
At some point, there may be “plenty of jobs” for humans who can repair robots. But if you need an IQ of 115 to do that job, then there WILL be a lot of people who cannot contribute to society.
It’s not just a question of “is there work?” it is also a question of “can you do the work that is needed?”
I do not have an optimistic view of this.
IQ. Exactly. But the free traitor class has banished conservatives who point out how people aren’t intellectually equal. So articles like this will only tell the rose colored glasses version.
The USA can either stand around talking about it until China-India implement Robotics or they can do it now.
The jobs it will create for Robotics programming-design and maintenance will be higher paying and better future than any job the robots will replace.
The wafer handlers in modern day fabs are 100% robotic and zero chance of dropping 10M worth of potential chips.
Also very cool to watch!
Stop subsidizing low IQ people to breed and this problem will slowly take care of itself over a few generations and you will have a better civilization without a civil war. Subsidize a permanent underclass and there will be hell t pay.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
“Humans need not apply”
And this links you to tons of videos on the subject.
I really don't want to go anywhere near that. It's a dark path and I don't think it takes anybody where they really want to go.
In the past it’s always created more jobs. I don’t think it’s going to be different this time.
Ding Ding Ding Ding !!!
We have a winner !
Idle hands are the Devil’s Workshop.
Just look at the inner-cities for proof.
Smart people will always do ok.
But there are a lot more people who aren’t smart than those who are.
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