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New research estimates probability of mega-earthquake in the Aleutians
Science Daily ^ | 5/13/2016 | University of Hawaii at Manoa

Posted on 05/15/2016 7:07:07 PM PDT by JimSEA

A team of researchers from the University of Hawai'i at Mānoa (UHM) published a study this week that estimated the probability of a Magnitude 9+ earthquake in the Aleutian Islands--an event with sufficient power to create a mega-tsunami especially threatening to Hawai'i. In the next 50 years, they report, there is a 9% chance of such an event. An earlier State of Hawai'i report has estimated the damage from such an event would be nearly $40 billion, with more than 300,000 people affected.

Earth's crust is composed of numerous rocky plates. An earthquake occurs when two sections of crust suddenly slip past one another. The surface where they slip is called the fault, and the system of faults comprises a subduction zone. Hawai'i is especially vulnerable to a tsunami created by an earthquake in the subduction zone of the Aleutian Islands.

"Necessity is the mother of invention," said Rhett Butler, lead author and geophysicist at the UHM School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST). "Having no recorded history of mega tsunamis in Hawai'i, and given the tsunami threat to Hawai'i, we devised a model for Magnitude 9 earthquake rates following upon the insightful work of David Burbidge and others."

(Excerpt) Read more at sciencedaily.com ...


TOPICS: Science
KEYWORDS: alaska; aleutian; aleutianislands; aleutians; earthquakes; hawaii; tsunami
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As we become aware of past tsunamis and their timing we, by necessity, become more concerned. We've had som spectacular tsunamis in the past few years. Each has had a catastrophic scene of destruction and loss of life. It will happen again but the timing is unknown. I'd personally bet on the Pacific Northwest but Jaoan an Indonesia are equally on the list even though they have had recent calamities.
1 posted on 05/15/2016 7:07:07 PM PDT by JimSEA
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To: JimSEA
It's a democrat state. Is it ok to think, "Meh... No great loss."?

You can bet the farm the Commies would dance in the streets if it was North Carolina..

2 posted on 05/15/2016 7:12:00 PM PDT by jonascord (It's sarcasm unless otherwise noted... This time, it's not.)
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To: JimSEA

Poor geophysicist named Rhett Butler. He must have been teased a great deal.


3 posted on 05/15/2016 7:13:27 PM PDT by SatinDoll (A NATURAL BORN CITIZEN IS BORN IN THE USA OF TWO USA CITIZENS)
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To: SatinDoll

Frankly, he didn’t give a d-mn.


4 posted on 05/15/2016 7:29:12 PM PDT by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either satire or opinion. Or both.)
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To: SatinDoll

“Poor geophysicist named Rhett Butler. He must have been teased a great deal.”

Frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn.


5 posted on 05/15/2016 7:30:33 PM PDT by CrazyIvan (Socialists are just communists in their larval stage.)
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To: JimSEA

Not surprised; I’ve been watching the Pacific Rim .. and it’s been lit up like a Christmas Tree for quite some time. And, a major fault in CA (the San Andreas) has just been declared in danger of an event very soon.

And, there is a little known fault right off the Coast of Washington State, and they keep talking about it already starting to show signs of letting go too.


6 posted on 05/15/2016 7:37:45 PM PDT by CyberAnt ("Peace Through Strength")
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To: CyberAnt

Like gorebull warming? We’re all gonna die!


7 posted on 05/15/2016 7:41:18 PM PDT by sagar
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To: sagar

It’s always something.


8 posted on 05/15/2016 7:41:39 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: JimSEA

More taxpayers money needs to be spent on earthquakes and tsunamies so that they can be traced back to fracking and the evuuuuuul oil companies.


9 posted on 05/15/2016 7:42:33 PM PDT by sagar
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To: dfwgator

Note how all of a sudden all “faults” are supposed to go off. 9.0 earthquakes everywhere... must spend on fixing up skools and breeeedges. Oh, and shut off industry because the plants might pollute during the earthquakes. Fukusheeeeema!


10 posted on 05/15/2016 7:44:05 PM PDT by sagar
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To: sagar

Speak for yourself.


11 posted on 05/15/2016 7:54:43 PM PDT by CyberAnt ("Peace Through Strength")
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To: CyberAnt
and it’s been lit up like a Christmas Tree for quite some time.

Actually, it's like that in cycles. There are cycles of activity all over the planet, and being able to see them ALL at ONCE helps one visualize the pattern activity.

I use a program that gives you this all instantaneously. It's awesome in it's speed and options. I spent a half hour just playing with the controls when I first used it. ZOOM in/out, move to any location by spinning the planet, twisting or tilting.

It's a small program and download only takes about 2 seconds. It's FREE !!!!. Once you install it you just run it (independently of your browser).

It is the best way to see EQ activity I have found.

EARTHQUAKE 3 D

12 posted on 05/15/2016 8:00:45 PM PDT by UCANSEE2 (Lost my tagline on Flight MH370. Sorry for the inconvenience.)
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To: UCANSEE2

I watch it all the time because I live in SoCAL. And, I too have a global program from USGS.gov - Earthquake map - worldwide. Once you plug into it, you can move around the whole globe and see what’s happening.

It’s really amazing to watch the different cycles .. and just now, the Pacific Rim is having all the fun.


13 posted on 05/15/2016 8:10:57 PM PDT by CyberAnt ("Peace Through Strength")
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To: JimSEA

Bookmark


14 posted on 05/15/2016 8:24:15 PM PDT by Southside_Chicago_Republican (If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.)
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To: CyberAnt
Do you have a link to that program ? I have looked all over USGS.gov and can't find anything like you describe.
15 posted on 05/15/2016 8:28:36 PM PDT by UCANSEE2 (Lost my tagline on Flight MH370. Sorry for the inconvenience.)
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To: jonascord

That is very interesting what you say about North Carolina. It rang a bell for me. Several years ago I was reading some Explorer articles and there was one about the Gulf Plate Rift Zone. I was just trying to access an AAPG Explorer article, but it is no longer an active link unless one is a registered member.

FWIW, this is the (unworking) link I have:

www.aapg.org/explorer/2002/11nov/rift zone.cfm

If you were to go to a geology library you could look at the 2002 November 11 volume, and look for the article on the Rift Zone.

What I recall of that article is that the writer makes a case for the friction causality of the New Madrid fault to be movement along the Gulf Plate which is, as one might expect, located in the Gulf of Mexico. One of the fascinating things about this rift zone is that not only is Missouri at risk, but so also there is a strip radiating from the Gulf Plate into - you guessed it - North Carolina.

There were also some vulnerabilities as well along a portion of the Appalachians moving northeast.

We need to all pray that the Gulf Plate remains happy and harmonious.


16 posted on 05/15/2016 8:43:11 PM PDT by TEXOKIE (We must surrender only to our Holy God and never to the evil that has befallen us.)
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To: JimSEA

This last week I’ve not felt the tremors fully stop for a week now here in Anchorage. Very low and subtle but near continuous. I feel it even as I am writing now. I’ve lived here for 38 years and have never felt a continuous tremor until now or the number of more pronounced tremors. Something is up for sure.


17 posted on 05/15/2016 9:46:09 PM PDT by IDFbunny
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To: IDFbunny

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/#{%22feed%22%3A%221day_m25%22%2C%22search%22%3Anull%2C%22listFormat%22%3A%22default%22%2C%22sort%22%3A%22newest%22%2C%22basemap%22%3A%22grayscale%22%2C%22autoUpdate%22%3Atrue%2C%22restrictListToMap%22%3Atrue%2C%22timeZone%22%3A%22utc%22%2C%22mapposition%22%3A[[36.4566360115962%2C-188.08593749999997]%2C[67.20403234340081%2C-96.15234375]]%2C%22overlays%22%3A{%22plates%22%3Atrue}%2C%22viewModes%22%3A{%22list%22%3Atrue%2C%22map%22%3Atrue%2C%22settings%22%3Afalse%2C%22help%22%3Afalse}}

The above MIGHT get you to the USGS link to earthquake map and activity in your neck of the woods.


18 posted on 05/15/2016 9:52:08 PM PDT by 21twelve (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2185147/posts It is happening again.)
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To: CyberAnt

What is your opinion of the Hayward Fault?

I thought it was ready and rarin’ to go, for the last several years now.


19 posted on 05/16/2016 6:23:49 AM PDT by T-Bone Texan (Don't be a lone wolf. Form up small leaderlesss cells ASAP !)
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To: T-Bone Texan

Haven’t heard anything about Hayward.


20 posted on 05/17/2016 11:06:30 AM PDT by CyberAnt ("Peace Through Strength")
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