Posted on 05/09/2016 11:25:00 PM PDT by TheWriterTX
Contrary to the narrative proposed by the administration and the media, what happened in 2008 was not the "great recession." It was, indeed, a depression, a long-wave deleveraging cycle.
Customarily, a long-wave cycle will play out over a decade. As individuals find their wealth contracting and shed their debt, the amount of money moving through the system ebbs and flows, with sharp peaks and deep valleys. In an unmanaged collapse, whole sectors of the economy evaporate and the depression becomes evident, rather quickly, to everyone. In a managed collapse, the government (through deficit spending) and the FED (through quantitative easing) paper over the valleys, hoping to achieve a soft landing.
One of the best research papers on the course of the economic crisis and how it will play out was written by Salient Capital Partners in 2011; their 3rd Q Macroeconomic Report pegged the situation, and future events, perfectly.
While papering over the low points works, it only works for so long. Even former FED Chairman Bernake said in March of this year that they can't keep it going forever. Honestly, the only reason it's gone on so long is that the EU has been doing the same thing!
In 2010 and 2011, Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital was the keynote speaker at Americatalyst, a consortium of real estate experts and global investors. In one of his keynotes (available on youtube), he mentions speaking to members of both sides of the aisle concerning the tremendous danger of ever-increasing federally-held debt. He was shocked when they expressed the consensus that they could keep the illusion going until, at least, 2018.
It appears, based on recent events, that we may be reaching end-game. The FED are still calling the economy shaky, job growth is nominal, productivity is slowing, the ZIRP is still in effect, and our debt burden is so high we can't move off ZIRP without a huge tax increase just to pay the interest on our debt.
So what does this have to do with Trump? Quite simply, the GOP doesn't care about losing the White House because they know that the economy is going to tank again during the next term. Since the deleveraging cycle was impaired and we managed only to reinflate the debt bubble, when this one pops is going to be truly ugly. They don't want that hung around their necks, the way the MSM falsely placed the blame for the start of the depression around Bush's neck. They want this financial disaster to be hung around the Democrats' neck like a huge, pest-infested albatross.
Look, folks, I'll be honest; the future is going to get worse, not better, regardless of who is in the White House. I think it's ridiculously short-sighted to vote against Trump. He's got a lot of great ideas, but he's going to have to cut social programs and that will require a whole lot of guts (something the GOPe doesn't have).
Just don't be surprised if he can't pull us back from the brink. Our financial mess is a lot bigger than any President. Bush didn't start it; Obama couldn't stop it; neither will Trump. What the next President CAN do is set us on the right path and help us clean up the aftermath. Who do you want doing that? The answer is obvious: Trump.
What aren't the banks telling you? Buy now before the prices skyrocket due to the collapsing economy
Ad nauseum
I’ve also been one to dispense with the “Great Recession” B.S. in favor of calling the economic times what they are — a full-blown Depression. Another symptom of a Depression is Hillary & friends who are scavenging the economy like vultures picking over a carcass. We are a Banana-Republic folks — see what’s going on in Venezuala & Greece?
The funniest guy? We voted for the guy who fights. We voted for the guy who counters with a sledgehammer. We don’t want a president, we want a wrecking ball. I have been saying this very thing for a year. I thought it was Cruz and supports him openly until February but then changed to Trump.
When the rest of the deleveraging cycle hits, you are going to want fluid assets.
Not hawking anything here.
Thats why you hear him mention bubbles and negotiating debt restructuring with our creditors.
He knows we have been in a crisis for the last 8 years.
FWIW, the much maligned Paul Ryan tried to make the point we are in a crisis back when he was Romney's VP
I always thought that part of Romney's weirdness in 2014 was that he really dud not want to be the guy that went down in history as the guy who crashed the country.
Its really to late to stop the pain and the can has been kicked way further down the road than any one ever imagined it could be, but the notes are coming due and electing a good President will determine what the country looks like when we come out the other end.
If you think about it, Trump may be the perfect man for the job
We are getting a nationalist with a conservative agenda the best of all possible outcomes.
BTTT!
Reagan did that and the good times began in his second term and extended for an, I believe, unprecedented length of time right up to the beginning of the present unpleasantness.
There were a couple of recessions but the damage was more announced then felt. If Trump can eviscerate the social programs and abolish the Agencies then we are on the road back and it will be a smooth and fast ride up the hill. Anything less and there will be a small rise followed by a continuing subsidence. If Trump has the vision and the determination to carry through he will precipitate something like an urban civil war. He has to ride it through and double down. The violence will subside or be squashed and, without the Agencies and with the amendments proposed for an Article 5 Convention, the Republic might be resurrected.
You are preaching to the choir here. I was making brutal fun of the lying slime bags that sell gold on talk radio.
I agree. Unfortunately there are the who don’t
Agree 100%. The GOPe jagoffs simply want the status quo.
I’ve read it before. It’s conspiracy nonsense promulgated by people ignorant of basic facts like what US Notes were, and of how the Triffin Dilemma created the pressure to abandon silver certificates and coinage. It’s entertaining but ultimately stupid, as most conspiracy stories are. Kennedy was famously so indifferent to the Fed that he could only remember that they dealt with monetary policy by the coincidence that monetary and William McChesney Martin both started with the letter ‘M’.
From what you write, may I assume that you would want the Federal Reserve to be audited? Transparency would put an end to a lot of “conspiracy theories”, after all.
There is a weekly report of the Fed’s activities published in Barron’s for those with a burning desire to see what the Fed has been doing. During the Carter years bond traders hung on every shred of information coming from the Fed and the market would fall if there was a whiff of credit expansion.
Conspiracy fans are going to be bored reading a Fed audit. Short sellers OTOH should find an audit useful because it will tip them off about banks under stress that are needing to borrow from the Fed. Since the Fed is not keen on helping ruin their member banks they aren’t interested in supplying that sort of information.
bkmk
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