Posted on 03/26/2016 7:56:52 AM PDT by conservativejoy
Donald Trump has not won a majority of the vote in any state he's won. Ted Cruz has done it twice, in Wyoming and Utah.
Trump's enormous unpopularity with the majority of voters is a telling indicator that he simply cannot win a general election. With his constant attacks on women, whether they be Megyn Kelly, Carly Fiorina, or Heidi Cruz, Trump's paltry appeal among women cripples him even further.
As expert mathematician Nate Silver pointed out on Friday, if women sour on Trump, the results of his efforts in the general election would look like this:
For all of Trump's talk of winning; he only has won consistently when he was facing a plethora of candidates. In one on one matchups with Ted Cruz or Hillary Clinton, polls show he loses.
Silver also offered a projection of how one-sided a prospective Hillary Clinton-Trump matchup would be, asserting Clinton would win 374 electoral votes and Trump would win 164.
For all of Trump's talk of winning; he only has won consistently when he was facing a plethora of candidates. In one on one matchups with Ted Cruz or Hillary Clinton, polls show he loses.
Silver also offered a projection of how one-sided a prospective Hillary Clinton-Trump matchup would be, asserting Clinton would win 374 electoral votes and Trump would win 164.
Well... I came away with swings and misses
.. but my Son caught his first and my daughter is getting better at casting. I’d call it a win.
sounds like locker room humor by a geek.
Sounds like a fun day! :)
Happy Easter to you and yours.
Our former chef in the family is now preparing the lamb and a ton of fresh veggies to charcoal tomorrow for our Easter feast.
The younger ladies are bring in desserts, and my wife is coordinating the feast with me as her gopher. I get paid well with great food for my minor role.
I believe the caucuses are GOP-only primaries. Cruz has done well in other (non-caucus) states with closed primaries. The crossover votes from Dems have boosted Trump.
This is one of the reasons why Constitutional conservative GOP voters on FR have kept warning FRumpsters that Trump does have a low ceiling of support.
Trump has committed the cardinal sin of alienating an extraordinarily important part of the GOP base--and I am not talking about the GOP elites (because they are elitists, not numerically significant members of the base). If Trump is the nominee, he will be unable to siphon off Clinton's fanatical devotees--but, worse than that, he will not be able to mobilize the GOP base very impressively.
John Batchelor had a guest on his radio show last night who trotted out the polling stats, including 55 head-to-head surveys of Trump versus Hillary. Trump lost to Hillary in 50 of the 55 polls.
Batchelor's guest had many, many other stats showing that Trump has low ceilings in several demographic and age categories. (Millennials and women for example, prefer Cruz by a wide margin.) And the spread between Hillary and Trump is getting worse. Trump is now losing to Hillary by 11 points. Several pundits have attributed this to the fact that more and more people have concluded that Trump is the lying jerk in the race, not Cruz. (According to the polls, Cruz and Kasich would both beat Hillary, but Trump would lose.)
NOTE WELL: There are vastly more Trump supporters who would vote for Cruz in the general election than Cruz suppporters who would vote for Trump.
Methinks the pandering, slandering, narcissist progressive New-York-values crony-capitalist Mr. Trump has screwed the pooch of his own campaign in the process of tearing the nation apart for the sake of his unlovely ego.
We Constitutional conservatives want a guy who will stop the illegals and Muslims from destroying us, of course, and also rebuild our military. But we also want someone who will eliminate the income tax, facilitate an economic rebound, eliminate anchor baby birthrights, defund the baby killers, fight back against gay marriage, and dependably appoint only Constitutional originalists to our Federal benches.
Trump is riding the wave of a backlash against illegals and Muslims and PC, but he has been weighed in the balance and has been found wanting in too many areas--especial overall integrity.
My biggest concern, as I have stated on other threads, is that I don't think our nation can survive when it has sunk to the point at which even professed conservatives would so much as entertain a Trump Presidency. We have become a nation in which many professed conservatives--and even quite a few numbskull "evangelicals"--support Trump mainly because they love an over-the-top ____hole, as I heard one Trump supporter characterize him.
America is in much bigger trouble than FRumpsters realize, IMHO--with a disaster looming up before us in what we would call Biblical proportions.
Cruz fell on his own sword. Sorry you are angry. Not Trump or his supporters fault.
Ted betrayed you. No one else.
Trump has all the right enemies.
Ted is responsible for his mistakes. He betrayed you. No one else.
Caucuses are much more controlled and far different from the vox populi of a primary (and I exclude so called open primaries).
The author's opening paragraph is disingenuous, it frames the false narrative that Trump is not popular. The truth is that Trump is the most popular candidate the GOP has, having hundreds more delegates than the second most popular candidate, Cruz.
I don't like having to defend Trump as I am not a supporter, although I thoroughly enjoy watching the RINOs' fits and the displays of their scheming. I have to call it as I see it, this article is BS.
Trump supporters like him for all his flaws and his positions on the issues.
Sorry for your anger. Neither Trump or his supporters betrayed you.
All of you put Cruz on the “holy” pedestal. Cruz is a disappointment, his mistakes are what you are angry about. Only Cruz is responsible for his choices.
It is him you are angry at.
Sorry, that’s just delusional rationalization.
I disagree with you.
I would prefer to say that the author's opening paragraph, concerning Utah and Wyoming, does not exactly amount to a blockbuster revelation about Cruz'z popularity as opposed to Trump's. Of course, it does show that in those two red states, Cruz is more popular with Republicans than Trump-plus-everyone-else in the race--but that's just suggesting that among rock-ribbed Constitutional conservatives, Cruz is the most popular candidate (actually achieving a majority, no less).
Heck, I didn't need polling results to tell me that anyway. Trump is not widely regarded as a credible champion of Constitutional conservatism, as many of Trump's supporters have conceeded to me. (I maintain that if Republicans as a whole were more concerned about Constitutional conservatism--the founding principles of the Republic--they would never even consider a populist like Trump.)
Anyway, I think the article was actually pretty good overall. In other words, I don't think your negative take on the article was appropriate, Ray. Trump may very well be the single most popular Republican candidate among registered Republicans (ignoring the crossover votes that have helped him thus far), but under the weird circumstances of this election year, that does not mean Trump is impressively popular even among Republicans. A majority of rank-and-file Republicans don't want Trump to be the nominee--for whatever reasons, good or bad--which is why we have the original Party rule requiring a clear majority for nomination, not just a plurality.
Polls have shown that Cruz would actually beat Trump in a head-to-head matchup.
Even more ominously, the article is correct in stating that Trump is the least popular Republican candidate when it comes to the November voters. I understand that Trump's national unfavorability rating is the highest in history. It's even higher than Hillary's.
And, of course, fifty of 55 surveys have suggested that he wouldn't even be able to beat Hillary--who is inarguably one of the biggest crooks ever to run for the White House.
We are in a very big, very dangerous mess. (And since you are, like me, disgusted with all the manipulative RINOs in the overall picture, let me offer my own humble opinion: Trump is the worst of all the RINOs. He is a dyed-in-the-wool opportunist--a pandering populist--not at all a solid Republican. The fact that he is nationalistic means nothing to me. [And the fact that many Tea Party folks have flocked to Trump just reminds me of how many RINO-phonies the Tea Partiers have unwittingly put into office!)
Thanks for the article. I invite you to see my #125 and #132.
As a homework exercise, see if you can figure out why it is false.
Oh I think Grampa and I will just wait for your Texas-sized logic to come a runnin’ to save the day and to save Rafael’s bacon. Tell the Easter Bunnies we all said “hi y’all”, ok?
How about: Ted fell on his own d$ck?
The story was triggered by Rubio. not Trump.
Note, I am not even a Trump supporter but am anti-Cruz.
Thanks for sharing your well thought out observations!
A lot of genuinely conservative pundits believe that eliminating the IRS--i.e., eliminating the income tax is the single best way--to bring our economy roaring back.
(The same guys also point out that punitive tariffs--such as Trump has proposed--have historically produced extraordinarily harmful results.)
I am opposed to a VAT because it takes more for the business to manage and track it than the current method. If the VAT is so good why is Europe’s econ in the toilet? BTW if a VAT tax is instituted I personally will make thousands more from business. I learned how to game the system from some of the best in Europe.
As far as Trump’s tariffs go. All that I want is a even playing field. Right now we don’t have one especially with China.
I am not a Trump supporter. My guy was Huckabee.
I believe this will become a non-issue after a year or two. Businesses should be able to afford software and other accounting systems that will make the VAT system manageable.
The main advantages of the VAT system are that 1) it eliminates the horrific hassles and costs of the IRS system for the average taxpayer and 2) it alleviates the IRS's extreme gouging of the investment class.
If the VAT is so good why is Europe’s econ in the toilet?
They are too Socialistic, it seems to me. (IMO, Europe's economic woes have little or nothing to do with VAT.)
***
BTW, what was Huckabee's plan to get rid of the IRS?
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