Posted on 03/22/2016 4:57:54 AM PDT by Kaslin
Many Donald Trump supporters think he is a slam dunk to beat Hillary Clinton in the general election. The candidate himself certainly takes this view.
But Trump's analysis of current public polls is preposterous. In the RealClearPolitics.com average of recent polls, Trump trails Clinton by 6 points, 47 to 41 percent. Ted Cruz, in contrast, leads Clinton 46 to 45 percent.
Ex-candidate Marco Rubio and splinter candidate John Kasich have been running even better. All at least equal the 46 percent that is the lowest percentage won by either party's nominee this century. Against each of them Clinton falls short of that.
Trump's poll performance is not just a momentary blip. In 49 polls conducted matching him against Clinton starting last May, Trump led her in four, tied her in two and lost to her in 43.
Since the Feb. 25 debate, when Cruz and Rubio (finally) started pummeling him, Trump's losing margin has increased from 2 percent to 6 percent. His current 41 percent is his lowest showing in the RCP average since last August, when people were just starting to seriously contemplate his candidacy. Polls typically show 60-plus percent of voters with unfavorable feelings toward him, even worse than Clinton's 50-plus percent unfavorable rating.
Trump's standing could decline further if and when he is nominated. Then the mainstream media -- which has been giving him lavish coverage and acceding to his unusual demands for telephone interviews and non-mobile cameras -- will likely join the Democrats in unleashing attack after attack. That probably won't help!
Trump's weakness is confirmed by polling in the dozen target states whose votes will, if current patterns hold, determine the outcome in November. Trump trails Clinton in RCP averages in 11 of the 12, including North Carolina, which Mitt Romney carried in 2012. The exception is Colorado, in a single poll conducted last November, in which Cruz still ran stronger.
What about Trump's argument that he has brought new people into the electorate? He's right that Republican turnout (19.5 million) is way up and exceeds Democratic turnout (14.6 million) for the first time in a year when both parties have had protracted contests.
By no means have all first-time primary voters gone for Trump. But let's concede that current polling tends to produce an electorate whose composition resembles that of 2012 and entertain the possibility that this won't be the case in 2016.
Black turnout and Democratic percentage are likely to fall, with the first black president off the ballot. Young voters' aversion to Clinton, evident in Bernie Sander's 80-plus percent among under-30s in exit polls, could sharply reduce millennials' Democratic margin. The proportion of seniors -- a good demographic group for Trump -- is rising as the baby boomers age.
If you use the RCP interactive tool and adjust 2012 black turnout down by 10 percent and white turnout up 3 percent, and further adjust the Democratic percentages down 4 points among blacks and up 3 points among whites, you come out with a Republican popular vote and Electoral College lead -- even assuming the Republican does as badly with Hispanics and Asians as Romney did.
That would look more like the off-year electorates that gave Republicans 51 and 52 percent of popular votes for the House of Representatives in 2010 and 2012. It would look like an electorate expanded with the new voters predicted by the two candidates -- Trump's left-behind angry whites, Cruz's evangelical Christians. Both groups have shown up disproportionately in Republican primaries and caucuses so far.
But you can expand the electorate all you want, and if you still have a product that 50 percent of the voters won't buy, you lose the election. The addition of new voters might nudge Trump's unfavorable numbers down to 60 percent. But that's still a losing number, since Clinton seems to be holding nearly 90 percent of Democrats, although one-third don't consider her honest or trustworthy.
Some may believe that Trump's favorable numbers could improve and make him more competitive. That hasn't happened so far. His celebrity helped him corral a lot of votes early, and he's held on to them. Exit polls show his voters have been committed for months, with late deciders going mostly to other candidates.
Trump has won 37 percent of Republican votes and is regarded unfavorably by more than 60 percent of general election voters. It's hard to get from there to 270 electoral votes!
Yes, who woulda though millions of bible thumpers would stay home and give us Obama. Great move.
Really? I haven't seen that.
unifying against cruz?
So everyone who does not drink and smoke is Hitler?
That’s so rotten and pathetically weak.
His daughter is married to a Jewish guy. His grandchild is Jewish genius..., but yet you call him Hitler because he wants to secure the border. We are either a country of laws or we are not.
Every President from George Washington up to Obama did this. Were they all Hitler too?
The opponents of that simple message keep telling you that you are a racist for being offended by bombings and rapes.
Paid article.
You may have missed the opus of libbyloser that went 867 posts after she damned all FReepers to hell.
There are a core of dead-ender Cruzers that do want Clinton elected to punish the rest of us for not supporting their Canadian/Cuban/American ineligible candidate that voted for the Corker bill and TPA and supported legalization of illegals until it became a political liability.
Conveniently conservative.
And yet he’s winning and may even win Utah after these Terrorist attacks wake folks up again!
Good point.
Goodwin’s Law, you lose.
You ain't seen NOTHIN yet. Trump will probably be the most trashed candidate of all time. Remember, the liberals see him just about as a LITERAL reincarnation of Hitler. Between the activists, the Democrats, and the Media, this is going to be by far the ugliest against our guy, assuming its Trump. I think we are yet to see the worst. Not even close.
{Sad, really. Otherwise bright, intelligent, well informed and engaged people who refuse to see reality that the GOP-E must be torn down rather than aligned with in order to “win at any cost.” }
Sad, really. Otherwise bright, intelligent, well informed and engaged people, so lost in their hatred of the GOPe, they refuse to see the reality that “deal maker” Trump has no actual interest in tearing down the GOPe. They justifiably want the GOP torn down because the GOP has failed to live up to their conservative electoral rhetoric...and they do this by pinning their hopes on a man who has zero conservative principles to live by.
Sad, really.
After YEARS of pinning my hopes on the GOP(E) to at least live up to a minimal amount of Conservative hopes, their continued failure to do so, and decades of telling us Conservatives to "sit down, shut up, and vote GOP" ... what exactly is the difference between the Democrats and the Republicans at this point?!
No one seriously believes Donald Trump is a conservative. I've said many, many times on here, Trump is a Populist who occasionally has left of center positions, occasionally right of center positions. The fact that both political parties hate him with a passion tells me much: that he is an instrument of both their destruction. The fact the GOP is actively working towards a brokered convention which will ultimately elect Shrillary Clinton tells me Trump is a weapon, to be used to bludgeon both parties to their miserable death.
And THAT is the reason I support him.
In 1976, they tried to tell us to sit down, shut up and vote for Gerry Ford. Instead, we got Jimmy Carter.
In 1980, they tried stealing the nomination from Ronald Wilson Reagan. Thankfully they failed.
In 1984, Ronald Wilson Reagan was so wildly popular, he swept 49 of 50 states to win re-election. Drove the GOP-E batshit crazy.
In 1988, they told us to sit down, shut up and vote for George Herbert Walker Bush. So we got a GOP-E "out of touch" President.
In 1992, they again told us to sit down, shut up, and vote for George Herbert Walker Bush. We got Bill Clinton.
In 1996, they told us to sit down, shut up and vote for Bob Dole because hey, it was "his turn." We again got Bill Clinton.
In 2000 they told us to sit down, shut up and vote for George W. Bush. We got a faux "Conservative" who turned out to be one of the biggest fiscal liberals since Lyndon Baines Johnson.
In 2004 they again told us to sit down, shut up and vote for George W. Bush. We *again* got a faux "Conservative" who couldn't win a war in Iraq or Afghanistan, and continued to blow holes in the budget and deficit and in fact KILLED the balanced budget AND SURPLUS he was given.
In 2008 they told us to sit down, shut up and vote for John McCain because it was "his turn" and oh, he was a war hero to boot. Instead, we got 0bama. In 2012 they told us to sit down, shut up and vote for Mitt Romney because it was "his turn" after being a good GOP-E soldier in 2012. In an election he should've won, Romney failed to "go for the kill" during the final debate with 0bama and blew the election, losing in a massacre. In 2016, it's time for the GOP-E to sit down, SHUT THE HELL UP and vote for Donald Trump!!
Michael Barone
His name brings back a song remembered.
A tune entitled ‘Bony Marony sung in 1957 by Larry Williams
There has always been that connection in the mind for some reason.
Perhaps the term ‘bone head’ might be a clue.
another day - another sings his song; and the Trump Train keeps rolling along.
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