Posted on 03/22/2016 4:57:54 AM PDT by Kaslin
Many Donald Trump supporters think he is a slam dunk to beat Hillary Clinton in the general election. The candidate himself certainly takes this view.
But Trump's analysis of current public polls is preposterous. In the RealClearPolitics.com average of recent polls, Trump trails Clinton by 6 points, 47 to 41 percent. Ted Cruz, in contrast, leads Clinton 46 to 45 percent.
Ex-candidate Marco Rubio and splinter candidate John Kasich have been running even better. All at least equal the 46 percent that is the lowest percentage won by either party's nominee this century. Against each of them Clinton falls short of that.
Trump's poll performance is not just a momentary blip. In 49 polls conducted matching him against Clinton starting last May, Trump led her in four, tied her in two and lost to her in 43.
Since the Feb. 25 debate, when Cruz and Rubio (finally) started pummeling him, Trump's losing margin has increased from 2 percent to 6 percent. His current 41 percent is his lowest showing in the RCP average since last August, when people were just starting to seriously contemplate his candidacy. Polls typically show 60-plus percent of voters with unfavorable feelings toward him, even worse than Clinton's 50-plus percent unfavorable rating.
Trump's standing could decline further if and when he is nominated. Then the mainstream media -- which has been giving him lavish coverage and acceding to his unusual demands for telephone interviews and non-mobile cameras -- will likely join the Democrats in unleashing attack after attack. That probably won't help!
Trump's weakness is confirmed by polling in the dozen target states whose votes will, if current patterns hold, determine the outcome in November. Trump trails Clinton in RCP averages in 11 of the 12, including North Carolina, which Mitt Romney carried in 2012. The exception is Colorado, in a single poll conducted last November, in which Cruz still ran stronger.
What about Trump's argument that he has brought new people into the electorate? He's right that Republican turnout (19.5 million) is way up and exceeds Democratic turnout (14.6 million) for the first time in a year when both parties have had protracted contests.
By no means have all first-time primary voters gone for Trump. But let's concede that current polling tends to produce an electorate whose composition resembles that of 2012 and entertain the possibility that this won't be the case in 2016.
Black turnout and Democratic percentage are likely to fall, with the first black president off the ballot. Young voters' aversion to Clinton, evident in Bernie Sander's 80-plus percent among under-30s in exit polls, could sharply reduce millennials' Democratic margin. The proportion of seniors -- a good demographic group for Trump -- is rising as the baby boomers age.
If you use the RCP interactive tool and adjust 2012 black turnout down by 10 percent and white turnout up 3 percent, and further adjust the Democratic percentages down 4 points among blacks and up 3 points among whites, you come out with a Republican popular vote and Electoral College lead -- even assuming the Republican does as badly with Hispanics and Asians as Romney did.
That would look more like the off-year electorates that gave Republicans 51 and 52 percent of popular votes for the House of Representatives in 2010 and 2012. It would look like an electorate expanded with the new voters predicted by the two candidates -- Trump's left-behind angry whites, Cruz's evangelical Christians. Both groups have shown up disproportionately in Republican primaries and caucuses so far.
But you can expand the electorate all you want, and if you still have a product that 50 percent of the voters won't buy, you lose the election. The addition of new voters might nudge Trump's unfavorable numbers down to 60 percent. But that's still a losing number, since Clinton seems to be holding nearly 90 percent of Democrats, although one-third don't consider her honest or trustworthy.
Some may believe that Trump's favorable numbers could improve and make him more competitive. That hasn't happened so far. His celebrity helped him corral a lot of votes early, and he's held on to them. Exit polls show his voters have been committed for months, with late deciders going mostly to other candidates.
Trump has won 37 percent of Republican votes and is regarded unfavorably by more than 60 percent of general election voters. It's hard to get from there to 270 electoral votes!
“But Trump’s analysis of current public polls is preposterous. In the RealClearPolitics.com average of recent polls, Trump trails Clinton by 6 points, 47 to 41 percent. Ted Cruz, in contrast, leads Clinton 46 to 45 percent. “
Cruz does not LEAD Clinton, you frigging morons!
In one month his numbers will plunge the minute the leftist media opens up on him. Or maybe some of you haven’t noticed how they are completely ignoring him at this point while they focus on Trump.
And even with all of that focus on Trump, THAT is as far back as they can push him.
Baloney from Barone.
C’mon November
After each new act of moslem terror between now and November, Trump’s numbers will go up, and Hillary’s will go down.
Palins rallies were just as packed and enthusiastic. I went to two of them.
Travis, I hope you are right but I am not that optimistic.
Not about Trump, I was sure about him from the get go.
I mean the state of our country. How can this be fixed, for example, this morning advertisement around carbon footprint.
I will give them a footprint with my foot. As we have read day after day on this website, our bretheren do not know what they have nor will they protect it. Maybe its time for states to succeed from the Union and call this place America, The United States of America.
Ok.
“Trump trails Clinton in RCP averages in 11 of the 12, including North Carolina, which Mitt Romney carried in 2012. The exception is Colorado, in a single poll conducted last November, in which Cruz still ran stronger. “
Trump is ahead of Clinton in FL, Cruz isn’t. Cruz is also behind Clinton in all those “target states”.
I guess our only choice is:
McCain/Romney 2016.
/s
Trump at 37%. Ted Cruz even less. Harder for Cruz than it is for Trump isn’t it?
Hear, hear!
Trump’s stock just went way up. Between calling the Brussels situation months ago, and reiterating that his immigration stance is what’s necessary to prevent these attacks, people are starting to see that he knows what’s most important.
As always, the NYT and other detractors shoot themselves in the foot. They criticized his assessment 2 months ago.
I like the part about how once Trump wins the nomination, the news media will turn and begin attacking him, causing his numbers to go down. That tells you all you need to know about the article. The writer has evidently been in a hole somewhere for the last eight months.
That doesn't look like it's going to happen.
No, I am in the what difference does it make crowd. You are being played by progressive just a hair to the right of Hillary. Good luck with that.
In July 1988 Bush was 26 points behind Dukakis.
“Trump gets thousands at his rallies. Hillary gets maybe 9. These polls are bullshit.”
Exactly, and if these were that Bush spawns numbers instead of an outsiders, the stories would all be about how stellar hes run his campaign and appears unstoppable,
The folks are waking up and seeing how the MSM manipulate everything, trying to write the narrative they want instead of reporting,
“Each act of Muslim terror, Trump’s numbers and delegates will go up.”......
Perhaps the muzzie illegals here in the U.S., and the thousands more coming thanks to dumb ass “odumbo” are laying low until AFTER the election knowing that Trump will deport them all. Any kind of major attack such as the one in Brussels would certainly put him WAY OVER THE TOP as the preferred candidate. His stance on illegals will get him the title of POTUS.
With Hillary soon out of the race, Trump will do fine.
give Kaisch the post office to run...
That is good!!! LOL
He is always telling us about how he can correct a losing entity. Go for it John.
Trump at 37%. Ted Cruz even less. Harder for Cruz than it is for Trump isn’t it?
Yes that always gets me.
Trump you have 60% of the people voting against you.
Ted you have 80% of the people voting against you.
Actually Trump said this at the last debate. Should be said more often.
“Trump gets thousands at his rallies. Hillary gets maybe 9. These polls are bullshit.”
The polls showing Obama beating McCain and Romney were bullshit as well.
Then maybe Hillary happens.
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