Posted on 03/16/2016 11:10:08 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
This is not an argument for what should happen or what I’d like to happen in the November presidential election, but about what would likely happen in a Donald Trump-Hillary Clinton race: Clinton would win, and probably by a wide margin.
I caution Trump supporters: You can’t just say that Trump will win. That claim must be based on evidence and recognized patterns of political behavior. Crowds at rallies and winning primary elections, especially with only a plurality of the vote, is not evidence that a candidate can win in a general election.
Even if you add up everyone who has attended a Trump rally, that’s only a tiny fraction of total voters in a presidential general election. In both 2008 and 2012, there were about 130 million voters in those presidential elections. And the difference between a turnout in a primary and general election is great. For example, Trump won both the South Carolina and Michigan primaries, but in the general election in those states there will likely be twice as many voters as the number that voted in the primary (counting both Republican and Democratic primary voters).
You could look at head-to-head polls to predict an outcome. Real Clear Politics has nearly 50 polls going back several months which polls a Trump-Clinton race, and Trump has small leads in only five of those polls. In the last month, Clinton’s advantage has been just over 6 points.
But months remain until the election, and there will be barrages of ads trashing candidates.
So how do people choose whom they are voting for? For those people who identify with a political party, party identification is the most important factor. For example, in the 2012 race, 92 percent of Democrats supported Obama and 93 percent of Republicans supported Romney. And in 2008 it was similar with 93 percent of Democrats supporting Obama and 93 percent of Republicans supporting McCain.
Obama and Romney in 2012 and Obama and McCain in 2008 came very close to splitting the independents in both of those elections. So what was the difference? There were more people who identified as a Democrat than as a Republican (according to Gallup). Right now, according to Gallup, Democrats have only a slight advantage when it comes to party identification, so that’s good news for the eventual Republican nominee.
So if party identification is a very important predictor of voter choice, then the way to victory is to get your party to vote for you, win half or more of the independents, and try to peel away some voters from the other party.
But can Trump get nearly all of those who identify as a Republican? I can’t think of any candidate in recent history who generates such strong dislike from some members of his party.
Trump and his supporters can claim that nearly all of the party will come around to support him in the fall, but that seems implausible. Still, assume that most Republicans would come around to support Trump. Even getting 80 percent of Republicans would put him in a difficult position to win.
But Trump claims that he’s drawing independents and Democrats. But the polling suggests it’s going to be very hard for him get enough independents and Democrats to win in the fall. A January poll from Gallup indicated that Trump had the worst favorability ratings among any Republican candidates among independents and Democrats. Trump was net -27 among independents (that is, his unfavorability rating was 27 points higher than his favorability rating) and -70 among Democrats. No other Republican was so far underwater with non-Republicans. It’s not enough to get some independents and Democrats. For Trump to win, he gets a majority of independents and at least 20 percent of Democrats.
Trump, the businessman, should understand you need a plan for winning. In presidential politics you need a plan for winning a majority of electoral votes because there’s only one winner. Attracting a dedicated minority of voters wins no prize.
The Trump campaign is like one of those outlandish business ideas, like personal travel to the moon, that has some potential customers, but it doesn’t have a winning business plan.
I think there's about a 50% chance that Hillary will not be the nominee, either due to health or legal problems. In that case I think the Dems insert Uncle Joe as a replacement.
Dems who cross over and vote Trump are worth twice the Pubs who stay home or vote third party. This analysis doesn’t take that into account.
His voting results are vastly higher then the claims of “his ceiling” the Hate Trump Always people like to cite based on their polling.
But I get it. Polling that validate your opinions “good” actual vote totals that refutes your assumptions “bad”.
RE: Dems who cross over and vote Trump are worth twice the Pubs who stay home or vote third party. This analysis doesn’t take that into account.
The author took that into account. Here is his reasoning for what it’s worth:
But the polling suggests it’s going to be very hard for him get enough independents and Democrats to win in the fall. A January poll from Gallup indicated that Trump had the worst favorability ratings among any Republican candidates among independents and Democrats. Trump was net -27 among independents (that is, his unfavorability rating was 27 points higher than his favorability rating) and -70 among Democrats.
No other Republican was so far underwater with non-Republicans. It’s not enough to get some independents and Democrats. For Trump to win, he gets a majority of independents and at least 20 percent of Democrats.
RE: The whole GOPe is smaller than one of Trump’s rallies.
Let’s not be over optimistic.
Total Cruz + Kasich + Rubio votes in many important states still exceed Trump’s.
It remains to be seen how many of Rubio’s supporters will go with Trump during the remaining primaries.
I’ll bet this writer would have said 10 months ago that there was 0 chance of Trump winning the GOP nomination. Now he is writing that he can’t beat Hillary - his opinion is worthless.
Cruz's voters aren't GOPe and neither is Cruz. It's hard to say which of the two insurgent candidates the GOPe hates more.
Kasich and Rubio both have conservative supporters who will be willing to vote Trump in the general.
In the 2012 race, 92 percent of Democrats supported Obama and 93 percent of Republicans supported Romney. And in 2008 it was similar with 93 percent of Democrats supporting Obama and 93 percent of Republicans supporting McCain.
The question then becomes will those Republicans who will eventually come around to supporting Trump reach the historical 93%?
Just 80% or 85% won’t do for the general.
The latest polls have Clinton up by 13 points over Trump. We’re in landslide loss territory.
What poll are you referring to?
Trump is now my first pick, but I am not so certain he is going to win either. I think it will ultimately come down to this, can DT change enough to win over more voters to his cause, without dropping his current supporters? I think that's entirely possible, the question is, will he?
As I stated in an earlier thread:
Uhhh, have you seen the rallies? Have you seen where the energy is? A Hillary rally is lucky if she gets 5000 folks and that’s in big liberal city’s. Many of her rallies barely scrape up a few hundred participants. Trump rallies are filling stadiums. Do you see that energy at a Cruz rally? At a Kasich rally? The Trump rally phenomena is way more telling than any poll.
Jan 2017” There’s no way he’ll be re-elected. He probably won’t even run!
I read that but let’s say that 20% of Dems vote Trump while 20% of Republicans stay home. For this simple example, assume there are equal numbers of Dems and Pubs, and also that independents go 50-50.
In the example, the Dem candidate gets 0.8 of the Dem voters and none of the Pubs, while the Pub candidate gets 0.8 of the Pubs and 0.2 of the Dems. Clear win for the candidate who gets full crossovers versus one who only loses some stay-homes.
Of course, the simplifying assumptions above are not likely to be accurate. The reality is there are more Dems than Pubs, and at least a few Pubs will actually vote for Hillary. Also, Trump may not split the independents equally. This survey shows Trump is 63-37 unfavorable among independents right now.
With ease. He knows how to fight unlike the typical Milqe Toast Republican Candidate..
Now, someone tell us what “Blue” States that Obama Won in 2012 will any of the other Republican Candidates besides Trump have any chance of Winning.
The enthusiasm level alone will do Clinton in. It is very low and those who say it makes no difference can’t seem to remember 2010 and 2014 when it was sharply below the Republican level.
Republicans who say they wont vote Trump now are those supporting other candidates. Last night ABC News embarrassed itself by first coming on with the “STARTLING” news that 27% of Republican voters would NEVER vote for Trump! Then had to say , “Oh yeah 26% said that about Cruz and 25% about Kasick and 26% said that about Rubio.” In other words the question was pure Bull Shiite!
The enthusiasm level alone will do Clinton in. It is very low and those who say it makes no difference can’t seem to remember 2010 and 2014 when it was sharply below the Republican level.
Republicans who say they wont vote Trump now are those supporting other candidates. Last night ABC News embarrassed itself by first coming on with the “STARTLING” news that 27% of Republican voters would NEVER vote for Trump! Then had to say , “Oh yeah 26% said that about Cruz and 25% about Kasick and 26% said that about Rubio.” In other words the question was pure Bull Shiite!
Sorry, Mr. Coulter, this is not the usual election. The People are standing up this time. They are tired of being taken for granted and ignored by Congress.
Buckle up and hang on! It may be a bumpy ride for you.
That's because the Democrats always outpromise Republicans in the Free Sh!t Sweepstakes.
Trump is the first Republican who might be able to outdo Democrats in the amount of free sh!t he promises. We'll see whether or not it works for him.
Face it...Trump's only winning 25%..errr, 30%...errr, 47% of the vote! He hasn't reached 50% once. Therefore we need Cruz...his 20 something percent is purer than Trump's 40%!
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