Posted on 03/06/2016 3:33:08 PM PST by Citizen Zed
Even before they were forced to reconcile whether to support Donald Trump and whether to consider President Obama' s Supreme Court nominee, Senate Republicans had their work cut out for them to keep control of the chamber they won in 2014 . They 're defending 24 of the 34 seats up in 2016 , and seven of those are in states that voted for Obama not once but twice .
The latest complications on the national level have only made Republicans ' job more difficult .
Eight of the top 10 Senate races we list here as the most likely to change parties in November are Republican- held , and University of Virginia electoral experts Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik think if Trump is Republicans ' nominee, it will move nearly every race on this list (and then some ) closer to Democrats ' reach .
In other words , Democrats have more than one path to win back control of the Senate . Overall , they need to win five states, or just four if Democrats take the White House, since the vice president can serve as a tie - breaker in a 50 - 50 Senate .
The Senate races will start to come into better focus this spring , when both sides hold most of their primaries . But that doesn 't mean we can' t start to handicap them now .
Here's The Fix's rankings of the Senate seats most likely to flip parties in November , with No . 1 being most likely and No . 10 being least likely - - but still competitive . To the line !
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Too late, he already has.....
10. Missouri (R)
9. Arizona (R)
8. Colorado (D)
7. Ohio (R)
6. New Hampshire (R)
5. Pennsylvania (R)
4. Nevada (D)
3. Florida (R)
2. Wisconsin (R)
1. Illinois (R)
“They ‘re defending 24 of the 34 seats up in 2016 , and seven of those are in states that voted for Obama not once but twice.”
This isn’t that.
It is likely they will lose less than three seats.
I’m pretty sure conservatives would be better off with all of the GOP turds listed gone. Ayotte, McCain, Kirk, Johnson. I’m not seeing anything worth saving.
Should have added my Senator...Portman. I won’t waste a vote on that GOPe turd either.
Don’t think McCain will survive the primary. Facing a very strong opponent and dislike at home.
I read that he is getting someone else to jump into the race to split the vote in his favor.
Under the 20th Amendment, the new Senate will be sworn in on January 3 and the new President will not be sworn in until January 20.
That means that regardless of who wins the Presidential election, if the Democrats retake the Senate then Senate Majority Leader Chuckie Schumer will have over two weeks to easily confirm every single Obama nominee, from Supreme Court down to the district courts.
Be afraid. Be very afraid.
Mark Kirk has zero chance of winning re-election. He is utterly despised by conservatives, and moderates will stumble all over themselves to vote for the insipid Tammy Duckworth. If Vegas posts odds it is a sure bet to go with the Dem winning that seat. Unfortunately, one would likely have to put up $1,000 to win $1.
Mark Kirk should just avoid the humiliation of losing in a landslide and declare he is not going to seek re-election.
No, we need every seat we can get. Control of the Senate is paramount, as it will decide on committee control, especially the Judiciary. Give the Dems control of the Senate, and thus control of Judiciary, they will get their Supreme Court nominee out for a vote, or block our’s. If Clinton wins, and there is a Senate Dem majority, watch for the Dems to change the rules and allow a simple majority confirm nominees for the Supreme Court.
EVERY REPUBLICAN MUST WIN, EVEN RINOS.
The Republicans will not keep the Senate if they screw Trump or Cruz and go for Romney or .ryan as the nominee. Too many voters stay home.
“The latest complications on the national level have only made Republicans ‘ job more difficult .”
They made their own bed, now they’ve got to lie in it.
It’s NOT Trump’s fault.
So GOPe of MCCain.
Term limits. We gotta have term limits.
ARTICLE V
Not if they screw us on the GOP nomination for President. Trump or Cruz okay. Romney or Ryan say goodbye.
I count three possible Democrat pickups. That would keep the leadership in the hands of Republicans, but that wouldn’t be considered a great advantage given the Senate Majority Leader. Since several Republican Senators who are really Democrats in disguise, the Senate will probably be deadlocked or supporters of the Democratic agenda.
It’s not too difficult to ID 10 GOPee Senators who need to go.
It is likely that Trump enters the convention with more than enough first ballot votes for nomination. If he wins Florida or Ohio he will slug it out. If he wins both, it is over. Expect a vast push in Ohio and Florida for him and then he will roll through the East Coast all but untouched.
Until now everything was proportional. It is now big winner take all states.
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