Posted on 03/01/2016 11:12:37 AM PST by djf
Figures never lie by liars always figure.
Not quite.
The winner of a primary within a party does NOT necessarily mean they would be the most likely to win in a contest between different parties
There have been head-to-head polls already done of Hillary vs Trump, etc, etc, etc. Those would be better indicators of who will win overall
As I read it, head-to-head polls within the GOP measure only Republicans (different formulae applied WRT registered and likely voters by different pollsters), whereas head-to-head national polls are based upon different formulae of not only registered and likely voters, but also percentage of Democrats vs. Republicans. I think the one ingredient that’s missing in the national polls is a consideration for the number of Democrats who might “defect” to vote for Trump. Witness the recent reports on the number of Democrats in Massachusetts (last count 18,000 plus) who have switched to the GOP to presumably vote for Trump in the primary.
LOL!
I see what you did there.
I know. I was just quoting the old ladies on the Geico commercial who don’t know how to use social media.
; )
I think it is a false flag planted by the GOPe and Rats. All of the polling has indicated that Rat turnout in the primaries is way down while GOP turnout is way up. If that trend continues to the general election, Trump will win in a blowout.
Where did you hear that? Because it isn't supported by the polls.
I believe Trump will get far more crossover votes than either Rubio or Cruz. He’ll get lots of independents and apparently some dem’s are switching over.
Yep, they’re lying.
Trump would get many Dem blue collar votes, too.
You may believe that, but the polls don’t support that. And so far, the polls have been very accurate.
Trump loses the cross over votes, a YUGE part of the conservative base, and the election.
I’ve heard of many democrats and undecideds that say they would vote for Trump. Not one that would say they would vote for Cruz or Rubio. Makes you wonder doesn’t it.
And the fact that Trump just say’s what people want to hear with a record that shows that.
Trumps going to do what he wants once elected. Including really bad deals for our conservatism.
You’re exactly right...plus one other little factor; republicans are turning out in record numbers in all of the primaries so far while democrat turnout has dwindled.
Yep. Which to me is mindboggling. Trump has a lot of flaws, to my mind, but Clinton has all those flaws AND MORE, plus she lacks a lot of Trump's positives, so why not go for the lesser of two evils? Sadly, I think a lot of it boils down to the fact that a large percentage of this country hates rich and "successful" people, and they see Trump as the richer one. It's like when some conservative guy (Crowder?) went to college campuses with six pictures of mansions, and asked people to assign them to various politicians running last time.
All of the mansions belonged to the Clintons, which even the conservative voters were shocked to discover, but which some of the liberals had a very hard time processing. It doesn't take the least effort to figure out that the Clintons are insanely rich, but for whatever reason they've got the rich-haters buffaloed.
A Reagan Democrat is a traditionally Democratic voter in the United States, especially a white working-class Northerner, who defected from their party to support Republican President Ronald Reagan in either or both the 1980 and 1984 elections.
It’s like 1979 all over again. Instead of Carter, it’s Obama.
Poll results depend on who is asking the questions, how the questions are worded (exactly), who is evaluating the results, and most importantly, who is answering the questions and who is not answering the questions. In addition it matters whether the person polled is likely to vote. (Remember—only about half of adults will actually vote on election day and they may lie about it.)
I rate the reliability of polls months before an election as about as reliable as candidate’s campaign promises—only a fool believes either.
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