Posted on 02/03/2016 4:13:22 AM PST by usafa92
On the third day of the UMass Lowell/7News Tracking Poll of New Hampshire Primary Voters, Donald Trump continues to lead the Republican field by a wide margin even after a disappointing second place finish in Iowa on Monday night. Trump's lead over his nearest rival is 24 points -- he stays steady at 38%, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz at 14% (no change) and Sen. Marco Rubio at 12% (+2% change). Three former governors, Jeb Bush of Texas at 9% (no change), John Kasich of Ohio at 7% (-2%) and Chris Christie at 6% (+1% change).
With six days remaining until Granite State voters head to the polls, Trump and Sanders have commanding leads. On the Republican side, Sen. Marco Rubio appears the most likely to offer a challenge to Trump after outperforming expectations by the greatest margin in Iowa's Republican Caucus Monday night. Rubio has gained slowly, but steadily, increasing two points each day since the poll's release on Feb. 1. It remains to be seen whether Rubio will continue to rise after a strong showing in Iowa. He needs big gains in order to get close to Trump's steady 38%.
(Excerpt) Read more at uml.edu ...
If Rubio pushes his was to 2nd place finish, the press will be in full gush mode. Mini Me will be the new savior of the GOPe.
Based on some of the pre IA polls for IA, I’d say something was off. Maybe the media, campaign hype or because they let ‘newcomers’ register right before voting, IIRC.
Perhaps polling for NH is more accurate. Perhaps NH actually has more stringent requirements for voting ‘residents’. Maybe the shakeout in IA will have an influence.
I’ll guess we’ll find out next Tuesday. Good luck to Trump and Cruz. Rubio can just go away.
that’s why i’ll ever understand so many posts hoping for Cruz to fall to third by Trump people.
Makes no sense.
Would they rather have ANY chance of rubio being president.
but that lead is monstrous. he will walk away with it, trump that is.
I like Cruz but i’m a realist.
Rubio is a real threat.
But if he goes after Cruz, I wont care a lick to be honest.
But good for Trump. NH is a different animal compared to that other goofy state, and its podunk voting process. People can’t pull dirty tricks during the voting.
So: the evangelical rubes in Iowa gave the win to a constitutional conservative, and a big boost to a tea party guy trying to overcome his gang of eight mistake. Meanwhile, “sophisticated” New Englanders will still go for the potty-mouth carnival barker who offers them the simple solution of a man on the white horse.
I hope Trump does not take his yuge lead for granted.
Back to reality.
You have to start already. Would it be possible to comment logically on the post like everyone elsse?
Now, they're looking at other ways to measure public opinion, gage voter turnout, etc. And they haven't gotten that nailed down. Not by a long shot.
He cited recent KY governor's race, Israeli election, Brit election... several others where polling is off from results sometimes by 10 percent or more.
Essentially, the margins of error are far larger than what is published.
Yes. That is a concern. But Bush will stay in through Florida so that helps. Net Rubio gets more of the drop out votes as we move along, but just 3 days ago the consensus was Trump could run the table. Things change very quickly in politics.
Gaffer wrote: “Based on some of the pre IA polls for IA, I’d say something was off. Maybe the media, campaign hype or because they let ‘newcomers’ register right before voting, IIRC.”
You have to give Cruz credit for his “ground game” for sure. I would suppose that would mean understanding the rules, having lots of local people involved, knowing how local politics plays, and turning that around to your advantage to maximize how many get out and pull the lever for you. I’m impressed actually. Then again, I was impressed with the community organizer’s ground game too.
I had heard a report for example that Trump had not lined up enough minivans to get his people out to vote. I’m pretty sure Ted Cruz didn’t haul many Trump voters to the caucuses, thus the ones that didn’t get there showed in the poll but not in the vote.
Trump will only get stronger, i have way more respect for his decisions, his method of campaign spending, his goals.
No.
Iowans gave the vote to the candidate that lived the longest in the state, using their moronic voting process, like they have done for decades.
They voted for Bush in 1980, so dont anoint these people with some halo of righteousness and sophistication.
Nevada? Who knows? His dismal polling results in his home state of Florida don't look great.
A fascinating race continues to play out. As a Trump supporter, I can see myself supporting Rubio, but not Cruz, if my candidate is out.
“that’s why i’ll ever understand so many posts hoping for Cruz to fall to third by Trump people.”
Not THIS Trump person, I assure you. I don’t like Cruz, but was horrified to see Rubio do so well in Iowa.
I have to admit, I had kind of written the GOP-e off, which is a terrible mistake. They are NOT going to let go of their power graciously (or even fairly) and will do everything possible to put one of their lapdogs (in Rubio’s case, a yipping lapdog) in place (signing up hoards of new people in Iowa to vote for Rubio, perhaps? Something’s fishy there!).
What has that to do with my analysis ?
“potty-mouth” - do you live in 1932 or something? Sheesh.
Jeb will have to unleash his superpac on Rubio. He skipped Iowa, but if he finishes behind Rubio in New Hampshire he’s done.
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