Every Major Apple Analyst is Now Predicting a Decline in iPhone Sales

Business Insider Austrailia ^ | January 13, 2016 02:12 UTC | Jim Edwards

[Up Yours Marxists]

Piper Jaffrey's Gene Munster, one of the better-known analysts who covers Apple, has joined the ranks of his colleagues and competitors who are predicting a decline in iPhone sales when CEO Tim Cook reports his December quarterly earnings on January 26.

Of the seven most recent analyst reports that Business Insider has viewed, all of them now predict an upcoming slump in the number of iPhone units sold. One group, Pacific Crest, all but accused Apple of shading the truth about its sales prospects in a previous earnings call, in a note that said, "Management's confidence now looks highly likely to be misplaced, which suggests that it was either ignorant of the challenges it faced or deliberately overstating underlying trends."

Apple has never before reported a decline in iPhone sales. Although the stock has already declined 26% over the last few months, analysts have not yet booked-in an actual reported decline to their models. And the tech industry generally has never lived in a world in which Apple has struggled to sell more phones. So 2016 is looking like it will be a bumpy ride for CEO Tim Cook. (Of course, iPhone 7 - due in September - is likely to fix those problems.)

[Norm Lenhart]

When I did the graphics card upgrade, I wanted serious power to do high rez gaming. I wasn’t really worried about pushing the rest of the system but I was surprised at how little of the CPU was being used. I originally had built the box with 16 gig of ram but a couple sticks went bad. I never replaced them and never saw a performance issue in anything I do.

We are definitely into overkill territory with the average PC and phones today. The average person will never come close to maximizing the potential of a modern PC until something drastically changes.

Look at Win 7. 10 exists solely as a data collector for the powers that be and data marketing firms. Win 7 was far from obsolete in functionality and could have been upgraded indefinitely.

[Behind Liberal Lines]

I have a 5 and I’m keeping it as long as I can. I don’t need that giant phone they started making.

[Behind Liberal Lines]

I’m reading and posting here on mine.

[Swordmaker]

Apple stopped being evolutionary and disruptive a LONG time ago.

Really?

Phablet speed test: iPhone 6S Plus vs Nexus 6P vs Lumia 950 XL vs S6 Edge+ vs Sony Z5 Premium

The Apple iPhone 6S Plus blows the others out of the water in this head to head test of the exact same task tests run on December 19, 2015. In this head to head test of all of the leading phablets, the iPhone 6S Plus finished the same tasks in 1 minute, 59.29 seconds. The next closest to finish all tasks was the Google Nexus at 2 minutes, 28.03 seconds, with the Samsung Galaxy S6 Edge+ almost as fast at 2 minutes, 28.29 seconds, the Sony Experia Z5 Premium at 2 minutes 53.13 seconds, and the Microsoft Lumia 950 XL coming in dead last at 3 minutes, 22.18 seconds.

Each and every one of the competitors phones have faster processors with more cores than does the Apple iPhone 6S Plus' A9 processor's clocked speed. But the iPhone is far more efficient in what it does with it's processor and graphic on a single chip. This chart shows why the iPhone 6S and 6S plus beat the others:

As a result the iPhone 6S Plus was far faster than any of the competition's phones in real world activities as well as in Geek Benchmarks. It smoked all of them. So much for your contention that the iPhone has stopped being evolutionary or disruptive. The iPhone 6S, the non-plus version, is even faster.

[Swordmaker]

I’m still using my iphone 4. Besides being faster, there’s not much change. My next upgrade will be to iphone 4s

The iPhone 4S is incapable of the security of the later models. Go at least to the iPhone 5S. It has the built in Secure Enclave that keeps the government snoops out and built in encryption when you use iOS 8 and above.

[r_barton]

Apple has become a one trick pony.

[doorgunner69]

Sorry to hear that.

[RockyTx]

I have been saying for years that I thought
that someday soon,

a smartphone would be a $10 giveaway item

[Swordmaker]

Apple has become a one trick pony.

It has? Since when?

Apple's product line up:

Apple Macintosh desk top models

• Apple Mac Pro
• Apple iMac 27" Retina 5K
• Apple iMac 21.5" Retina 4K
• Apple iMac 21.5
• Apple Mac Mini

Apple Macintosh Laptop models

• Apple MacBook Pro
• Apple MacBook Air
• Apple MacBook

Total revenue from sales of Macintosh Computers in Apple's fiscal year 2015 was $25,471,000,000.

Apple TV Models

• Apple TV 4th Generation
• Apple TV 3rd Generation

Total Revenues from the iPhone models in Apple's fiscal year 2015 was not broken out of the "Other products" category, but was estimated to have been about $2 Billion.

Apple iPad models

• Apple iPad Pro
  • Apple Pencil
  • Apple iPad Pro keyboard
• Apple iPad Air 2
• Apple iPad Air
• Apple iPad Mini 4
• Apple iPad Mini 2

Total Revenues from the iPad models in Apple's fiscal year 2015 was $23,227,000,000.

Apple iPhone models

• Apple iPhone 6S Plus
• Apple iPhone 6S
• Apple iPhone 6 Plus
• Apple iPhone 6
• Apple iPhone 5s

Total Revenues from the iPhone models in Apple's fiscal year 2015 was $155,041,000,000.

Apple iPod Models

• Apple iPod touch
• Apple iPod Nano
• Apple iPod Shuffle

Total Revenues from the iPod models in Apple's fiscal year 2015 was not broken out of the "Other products" category, but was estimated to be under $2.5 billion.

Apple Watch Models

• Apple Watch Sport, $349 or $399.
• Apple Watch Stainless Steel, $549 to $1099.
• Apple Watch Edition 18K gold, $10,000 and up.
• Apple Watch Band and Straps from $35 to $600.

Total Revenues from the Apple Watch models in Apple's fiscal year 2015 was not broken out of the "Other Products" category, but was estimated to be over $6.5 billion.

Apple Services and Content

• Apple App Store - $20 Billion in gross revenues in 2015.
• iTunes Music Store - largest music store in the world)
• IBook Store - second largest ebook seller in the world.
• iMovies and Television - streaming video and sales of pre-recorded content.
• Podcasts- largest source of podcasts in the world.
• ApplePay (credit cards from 913 banks and credit unions in the USA, more in Canada, more in the UK, Canada, and Australia, and now moving into China.)
• Apple Music (10 million paid subscribers after seven months)
• Apple News

Total Revenues from Content and Services in Apple's fiscal year 2015 was $19,909,000,000.

Car makers with contracts to use Apple CarPlay
Models listed in italics already available.

• Abarth
• Alfa Romeo
• Audi
• BMW
• Buick
  • LaCrosse
  • Regal
• Cadillac
  • ATS
  • CTS
  • ELR
  • Escalade
  • XTS
• Chevrolet
  • Camaro
  • Colorado
  • Corvette
  • Cruze
  • Impala
  • Malibu
  • Silverado
  • Silverado 2500HD/3500HD
  • Spark
  • Suburban
  • Tahoe
  • Volt
• Chrysler
• Citroen
• Dodge
• Ferrari
• Fiat
• Ford
• GMC
  • Canyon
  • Sierra
  • Sierra 2500HD/3500HD
  • Yukon
  • Yukon XL
• Honda
  • Accord (EX, EX-L, and Touring)
• Hyundai
  • Sonata
• Jaguar
• Jeep
• Kia
  • Optima
• Land Rover
• Mazda
• Mercedes
• Mitsubishi
• Nissan
• Opel
• Peugeot
• Porsche
• RAM
• Renault
• Sert
• Skoda
• Subaru
• Suzuki
• Toyota
• Volkswagon
  • Beetle (SE models and higher)
  • CC (Trend models and higher)
  • Golf (all trims except base 2-door)
  • Golf GTI
  • Golf SportWagen
  • Golf R
  • e-Golf
  • Jetta
  • Passat
  • Tiguan
• Volvo
  • XC90

The revenue from several of those categories by themselves exceeds the revenues of at least a hundred of the members of the Fortune 500. . . and they'd love to have the profits from them.

So much for your "one trick pony" claim, r_barton.

[r_barton]

Another kool-aid drinking apple fanboi who buys crippled high priced products that only work on one companies plantation. None for me, thanks. I like freedom.

[r_barton]

Who said the one trick pony was products? The one trick pony is how Apple does business. Everything it sells has to run on its plantation. One trick pony.

[Swordmaker]

Another cool-aid drinking apple fanboy who buys crippled high priced products that only work on one companies plantation. None for me, thanks. I like freedom.

Sorry, you don't know what you are talking about. My main Mac runs eight operating systems simultaneously. First of all, Macs are UNIX^tm at heart, which also run OS X.11.2 and another HD with OS X.10.5 (which I've run virtualized under OS X.11.2), and to service my clients properly, I also run virtual instances of Microsoft Windows XP, 7, 8.1, and 10. I also run two different versions of Linux because I have a couple of clients who have those. I keep handy files with THEOS, Windows 95, MS-DOS 6 and 3.6, 3.0, and even Amiga OS. I can also run all Commodore 64 software.

There is nothing at all crippled about it, r_barton. I can run far more software on my Mac than you can on your Windows PCs. . . and as I said, much of those OSes can run simultaneously with little to no degradation in operation. I tried it a couple times, once out of curiosity and another time to show a skeptic who refused to believe me. Of course, it helps to have a lot of RAM. . . and an efficient underlying operating system, which the Mac has.

Even rocket scientists and engineers prefer Macs for their work:

The design team of the Mars Landing Curiosity Rover with their MacBook Pro computers.

These NASA engineers and scientist at JPL certainly would not be choosing "crippled high priced products that only work on one companies (sic) plantation" for their critical work, now would they?

Macs are frequently the computers of choice for programers because of that capability and efficient OS. It makes it very easy to test software on practically any platform. You will frequently see PC centric magazine praise Macs as the FASTEST and BEST Windows PCs in reviews.

Nor, r_barton, are they "high priced" when compared with other makers' products with similar high end configurations. You will find that Macs are comparable and frequently less expensive than the competition when you compare a Windows computer that is configured to match what you get with a Mac. I've demonstrated that many times on FR, as have other Freepers. Usually the Mac is within 10% plus or minus, of the price of the Windows computer.

I did one just last week with a computer maker another naysayer claimed would be $1000 cheaper than an off the shelf Mac Pro. . . but once you configured his maker's model with the same grade processors, RAM, graphic cards, ports, etc, the difference was less than 7% (under $200) and his build was a noisy behemoth with fewer ports and no included software.

Frankly, everyone who claims this "high price" mantra, is looking at low end junk, not the high-end components that Apple specifies for its products. . . or are you one of those who believes a $300 plastic laptop has the same survivability as a MacBook that can be run over by a pickup truck or can fall a 1000 feet from an airplane and keep on working?

You have no clue what a "one trick pony" is.

[freedumb2003]

Still tinkering.

And I will bet I can fund studies that say the Galaxy was faster.

A little faster is NOT evolutionary nor disruptive. It is just waiting to be leapfrogged. Maybe you don’t understand the terms.

Heck, the iPhone can’t even wireless charge. So 2010...

[tacticalogic]

These NASA engineers and scientist at JPL certainly would not be choosing "crippled high priced products that only work on one companies (sic) plantation" for their critical work, now would they?

How do we know they chose them?

[Richard Kimball]

Switched from iPhone to Android after my iPhone 4 because of dropped calls. Liked everything else on the iPhone better, but call quality was far better on Note 2.

Have had the Note 2 for over three years. Dropped it and it broke, bought a used one for $100 bucks and kept on rolling. Several years ago, the texting, maps and phone quality reached a "plenty good" level. There hasn't been a major app breakthrough that makes anyone need to upgrade until a phone wears out/breaks. Screen on Note 2 is plenty big.

Also, companies used to subsidize the iPhone/Android with the contracts, and they've quit doing that. Getting hit with the up front price all at once, and not being able to hide it will kill a lot of sales, as will the fact that other companies will soon be/are making clones that provide "good enough" performance for a tenth or less of the price.

[IncPen]

How do we know they [NASA] chose them?

It's settled science... /s

[tacticalogic]

How do we know they [NASA] chose them?

The narrative is that the engineers and scientists chose them. I think it's more likely they were handed to them.

[norwaypinesavage]

"Athletic shoe makers are doing their damnedest to fool the market with lightweight"

I fell for that but once. When I started walking regularly, I was talked into buying an expensive pair of lightweight walking shoes. They disintegrated in about three weeks. I should have known something was funny, because the same store selling the lightweight shoes was also selling ankle weights in order to "increase the exercise potential of walking". I found that plain old heavy Rockport leather shoes work best, both for my feet, and for longest time to wear out the soles.

[glock rocks]

My iPhone 6s+ has a 12 mpx camera which can take 4k video.

[Swordmaker]

Also, companies used to subsidize the iPhone/Android with the contracts, and they've quit doing that.

No carrier ever "subsidized" the purchase of the phones. They just hid the cost you paid 100% of in their contracts. The funny thing is that it was in the self-interest of the carriers to sell you, or even give you, a low-end phone because the monthly contract price goes on for 24 months, yet the cost factor included in that price for the phone is covered in just a few months. . . and the rest of the months after the phone is paid for is just pure gravy profit for the carriers!

The carriers would PREFER you purchase/take that free phone with few services that they make a lot of money on also because they don't have to service that phone with anything except phone calls.

The fact is, now you will know up front how much you're paying and when it will be paid off. . . and under many of the programs, you can trade your current phone for the next, latest and greatest phone without having to wait for the contract to expire or for the current one to be paid off. It will actually better for Apple and the other makers who like their brand to keep on top of the latest upgrade cycle. . . and still pay the same without waiting.

AT&T, Verizon, and several of the other carriers have already been doing this for a couple of years in parallel with their contracts and it was already the majority of sales for them. That's why they decided to drop the two year contract model.