What does a world without full-time jobs look like?

CNN ^ | Aug. 22, 2015 | Jeanne Sahadi

[PROCON]

The most common occupation among American men is driving. But the advent of the driverless car could put lots of cab drivers, truck drivers and limo drivers out of work in the not-so-distant future.

Automation may also replace the jobs of many retail salespeople, cashiers, office clerks and food and beverage workers, said Derek Thompson, senior editor of The Atlantic, in an interview with CNN's Fareed Zakaria that will air Sunday.

"You look at the fleet of automated technologies, of software that exists right now, and it's rather frightening to me to think about how many jobs can be replaced by technologies that we understand to be right on the horizon," Thompson told Zakaria.

[PROCON]

What does America without full-time jobs look like?

[MinorityRepublican]

Everyone will go on welfare then.

[Bryanw92]

>>Everyone will go on welfare then.

“The Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them.” - Lenin

[alloysteel]

Automation in various fields and throughout whole industries was supposed to be the bane of existence for working people, but how many telephone switchboard operators are still around? First the Area Code dialing system eliminated a lot of Long Distance operators, then the cell phones eliminated a lot of line maintenance people for the phone companies.

What about keypunch operators that typed up the IBM card system? Technology eliminated that job, but the jobs the former keypunch operators held translated into computer data entry, a much more lucrative job, and one which grew at exponential rates.

Until it didn’t any more.

Eliminating drivers merely frees up many more maintenance personnel, but the job is even now much different than the “grease monkey” that used to change engine oil and replace shock absorbers. Armed with a vast array of diagnostic tools, the new technicians are not only much more productive, they are also, in the end, a cost-cutting strategy, heading off and preventing problems before they develop.

The Luddites will never stop job evolution.

[tbw2]

If we have millions of illegals here to work AND WORKING, there is no need for so many citizens on part time jobs. Send the illegals home, so there is both more work for the natives and more resources for those who paid the taxes.

[petro45acp]

Something to fear in a service based economy. Much less so in a manufacturing economy.....despite assembly robots, humans with talent are the real resource/engine of production.

KYPD

[Rusty0604]

I agree with you completely. But the gov’t, labor unions and illegal cheap labor has messed up the free market. The free market would decide whether it was more beneficial to replace a human and whether it opens up other occupations for the unemployed.

[BenLurkin]

[Mears]

The grandson I’m glad I didn’t get.:-)

(But if I had I’d still love him.)

.

[PLMerite]

I bet that doofus still has a full-time job.

[null and void]

Detroit?

[kabar]

The people who lose their jobs due to automation are the low skilled. Unless they can acquire new skills they will fall behind and be part of a permanent underclass. We have the lowest labor participation rates in 38 years.

Government data collected in December 2014 show 18 million immigrants (legal and illegal) living in the United States who arrived in January 2000 or later. But only 9.3 million jobs were added over this time period. In addition, the native-born population 16 and older grew by 25.2 million. Because job growth has not come close to matching immigration and population growth, the share of Americans in the labor force has declined dramatically — a clear indication there is no labor shortage.

We have a surplus of labor and automation will reduce the number of jobs for our least skilled and educated. 40% of non-immigrant headed households have a HS diploma or less. 44% of legal immigrant headed households have a HS degree or less and 78% of the illegal headed households have a high school diploma or less.

[kabar]

[wideawake]

Your argument is illogical.

Almost all manufacturing can be automated, so it is just as much "something to fear" as automation is in service economies.

Service economies are actually more cushioned: almost no one cares if his smartphone has been assembled by a robot or a kindly old gentleman, almost everyone cares if there is no one to speak to about his undercooked burger or his noisy hotel neighbor.

Humans will prefer to talk to a human about many service requests or problems than to Siri.

[HANG THE EXPENSE]

Ferguson or Baltimore.

[tbw2]

The skilled trades will become the bright future for the middle / average person.
Welding, plumbing, electrical work, mechanical repair, those are things a robot can’t do and someone who just came across the border can’t do right.
Mike Rowe is ahead of everyone on that curve.

[tbw2]

You’re right. A lot of jobs of the future will be human interfacing. After all, do you want a human nanny who teaches the kid true social skills, or a robot one that can be shut down by a hacker or just teach the kid a ton of cuss words?
Just because Japan is working on home care robots doesn’t mean the elderly want them - and if there is a huge number of unemployed people, there are certainly enough caregivers to hire to take care of them.

The Great Shift Toward Automation and the Future of Employment
http://tamarawilhite.hubpages.com/hub/The-Great-Shift-and-the-Future-of-Employment

[Nowhere Man]

>>Everyone will go on welfare then.

“The Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them.” - Lenin

Well, I stated in another thread (IIRC, a few others here made the same points too) where if this happens, we can go two ways out of pragmatism. The first way, I hat to say it, but we would have to go full bore socialist with everyone, who pass the means test, will get a guaranteed living wage. It would be enough for a 1 bedroom apartment, food, healthcare, utilities and so on plus maybe just enough to go out to dinner every so often or to have a small hobby. People will still have needs and in a post scarcity economy where most needs would be taken care of via automation this will change the paradigm so much, the old debate between socialism and capitalism will be rendered moot. If someone wants to make more than the wage given, then they will have to find a niche somehow where they can work and earn extra above that. It would be much like Star Trek The Next Generation where Picard's family had vineyards and wine making in France or Sisko's father had a restaurant in San Francisco. To fund the whole system most likely the automation machines and robots will have punitive licensing and registration fees (think of the taxi plaques in New York City) along with heavy taxes levied on the profits made from their production. (Almost) Everyone will be on welfare as you put it.

Idle hands are the Devil's Workshop so the second possibility is to make the registration and licensing fees plus taxation so punitive that it would be cheaper to hire people. It might have to go further, legislation will be passed to outlaw the use of automation and robots on jobs humans can do or to have machines require a human operator at all times. Exceptions might be for hazzardous duty like inspecting atomic reactors on the inside and space probes. Again, if I may used an example from science fiction, the original Battlestar Galactica took this route in the book story, in their case, there was that 1000 "yahren" tussle with the Cylons that was influential as well.

Another interesting aspect too was touched upon in Star Trek the Next Generation too. What if robots and androids and so forth get sentient and demand their rights as a human being. Data from Star Trek fought and got those rights. The Star Trek Voyager, the Holographic Doctor was a small part of the Holographs that were created to assert for their rights too. IIRC, all the old Holographic Doctors were relegated to mining when newer holographs took over, they were not too happy with that,

While we are still debating how the economy should be run, the questions will be changed rendering both side's answers obsolete.

[dfwgator]

And what are all of these low-skilled people going to do?

There used to be a lot of jobs for people without an education. What are all of these people going to do.

Idle hands are the Devil’s workshop.

[kabar]

Go on welfare.