Posted on 10/03/2014 11:04:09 PM PDT by zimfam007
What is the difference b/w an airborne pathogen and everything else?
LOL, yeah, Ebola outbreaks that killed dozens, or hundreds, why aren’t millions dead?
It’s only exponential if it spreads, yet it didn’t spread far over the decades of Ebola outbreaks, that over almost 40 years has led to deaths in the thousands, not millions.
What is your rough guess of millions for the American death toll? How about Europe and the orient?
You are already predicting millions of African dead, what about the rest of the world?
Well answer the question. You seem to be taking the threat lightly. Why do you think it will NOT kill millions at least in Africa? What is going to stop it? There is no cure. It's not contained. The healthcare systems have collapsed. The economies are near collapse and people are still traveling. What will stop it from killing millions?
What will stop it?
You are the one making the wild predictions based on how infectious you think it is, give me a wild guess at how many millions will die here.
How many Americans do you expect to die as a direct result of this Liberian in Dallas, based on your take on how easily it spreads and your math?
Unless a cure is found (unlikely) or unless it evolves to where it's not a threat then a realistic number is that it will stop when it runs though humanity and/or can't reach anymore humans. If it runs through humanity it will kill a certain percentage of people it infects (right now averaging around 70%), a certain percentage will be naturally immune and a certain percentage will never be exposed before the virus dies off. So if I had to make a guess I would say it could kill up to a 1/3 of the earths population.
The only other thing that could stop it right now is to completely cut off those countries where it's out of control. Even that is dicey though...it would have to be very strict....like shoot people trying to leave strict.
As it was, the Spanish flu killed a estimate 6% of the global population.( the high estimate)
ZBOLA...Ebola Zaire, is not likely to mutate enough to change the disease and the strain. It or it’s predecessors have been running around for thousands of years.
This sort of die off, is common in flu viruses, but Ebola is not a common flu virus or anything like it..It’s mutations are generally simple DNA genetic markers that do not change the way the virus behaves from the RNA side..
It also has a container of a sort, that stuff has to fit into. This limits it’s ability to survive if it exchanged RNA with the Flu virus. If it was easy, it would have already done it..but with more and more fresh territory, it could find something to blend with...eventually..
Maybe a animal it had never seen before..or a human..
As far as the breakout staying exponential......I don’t think it will...I think people will begin to run from it.
Over time, unless we can stop it in Africa....running won’t really save you for very long. So we have to stop it...protecting ourselves will only work for so long...The virus could, when it jumps out of Africa, most likely through North Africa, it could slowly kill 30%+ of the worlds population.
Some people will never see it due to geographical isolation features, but Europe would, as would South America, Central America and then North America.
I have to admit, that I was surprised that they were not able to control it better..I assume, not ever having been there, that there are reasons why. I think if it had started here, it would have been contained.
I think the world powers and the US, need to get off their asses and declare war on it, while it is in Africa..
lol..I get it. You don't have an answer. You don't know HOW it can possibly be stopped. So you refuse to answer the question. You might as well say you agree with me. :-)
Why do you think it will NOT kill millions at least in Africa? What is going to stop it? There is no cure. It's not contained. The healthcare systems have collapsed. The economies are near collapse and people are still traveling. What will stop it from killing millions?
What will stop it?
The infected are doubling in a month or less. What will stop it? Simple question. If you don't think it's a threat then you must think somehow that it's going to stop. How?
Thanks, about a third.
Something that is more manageable is to look at this Liberian in Dallas, and how he lived in this huge metro center and did it all, the malls, the kids and schools, apartments, everything.
So how many deaths do you think will result directly from his personal infection, hundreds, thousands?
That's another question. The first victims are going to get all the medical treatment they can handle or want. We'll know in a week or two if they tamped this down. They may be successful.
But the problem is this: As long as there's a huge outbreak somewhere else on the globe there's always going to be outbreaks in different parts of our country and in the world. It's like sparks from a fire. Eventually one is going to start another wildfire somewhere.
LOL...I’ll go with 3 ....maybe...including the Guy..
They got him very soon after he began to shed...and they have everyone he came across under observation or quarantine.
I think some of the quarantines may be infected, but maybe not..
Should begin to find out by the end of next week..
It always gets stopped,and has through 34 outbreaks over 40 years, and most of that in Africa, under African conditions, a past that you can look up yourself to see how it gets stopped.
You are claiming something new, that it won’t be stopped this time and will kill a third of humanity in the most deadly human catastrophe in history, it is you that needs to be making a case to explain this puzzling new claim out of the blue.
Well then tell me again...Why do you think it will NOT kill millions at least in Africa? What is going to stop it? There is no cure. It's not contained. The healthcare systems have collapsed. The economies are near collapse and people are still traveling. What will stop it from killing millions? What will stop it? What's the mechanism? Quarantine? Magic?
A fire burns until you take the heat away..(water or chemicals) Or you take the oxygen away, (smother it), or it runs out of fuel to burn.
Quarantine takes away the fuel.
Anti-virals take the heat away.
Medical care smothers it.
We actually have a lot of experience in this...last big one was Polio..
You use everything you have. And you can control it..mitigate it....stop it’s advance.
No, I don’t need to go over the history of Ebola to tell you what you can look up yourself.
What no one can look up is what is in your head and your justification for your personal predictions, that we can only ask you about, and why do you want to avoid what we are really interested in, us, America?
Is your prediction for America about a third of our population?
I did and already told you! And it was because the outbreaks happened in remote villages where travel was not frequent. In essence it was nearly self quarantine. But you refuse to believe that.
From the WHO website: "The first EVD outbreaks occurred in remote villages in Central Africa, near tropical rainforests, but the most recent outbreak in west Africa has involved major urban as well as rural areas."
That's what makes this time different. It's never been in the wild in an urban setting before.
The fact is there is nothing to stop it now short of the steps already outlined. IF you think there is a way please tell.
I already pointed out how you can’t dismiss it so simply, some of those outbreaks were widespread and involved hundreds of infected, besides, who cares, just make your case for your crazy predictions that you have created in your own head, you don’t need a history lesson to explain your own mental creations.
You have a Liberian in Dallas, are millions going to die from him? Are you predicting the loss of a third of the American population?
Here’s a interesting pull quote from a study that was posted earlier on this thread....just got around to reading it. The study shows how long ebola of two strains can last on surfaces and in aerosol...But it also had a comment on the airborne infections that supports what I said about the mechanism and it’s effectiveness...
” combined with the aerosol decay rates determined in this study, would suggest that filovirus, at infectious levels, may remain a potential aerosol threat for at least one and a half hours. Epidemiological evidence, however, would suggest that during outbreaks, filoviruses are rarely transmitted by the airborne route. “
Thanks for the ping!
You’re Welcome, Alamo-Girl!
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