Posted on 09/22/2014 5:22:42 PM PDT by BenLurkin
The Ebola outbreak in West Africa continues to rage out of control. The deadly hemorrhagic fever has infected over 5,700 in the region and has killed nearly 2,800. With thousands of American defense officials poised to head to the hot zone in the coming days, the American Center for Disease Control is set to warn that disease is spreading exponentially and may infect up to 500,000 by the end of January.
A report due to be released this week projects that a half a million could be infected by mid-winter, but the model presumes no additional assistance from the international community to curtail the epidemic’s rapid expansion.
“CDC is working on a dynamic modeling tool that allows for recalculations of projected Ebola cases over time,” a CDC spokeswoman told reporters with The Washington Post. “CDC expects to release this interactive tool and a description of its use soon.”
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
A question for Scouter
Assuming that the reported number of cases represents the true size of the epidemic, my model projects 405,814 cases by January 31 in Liberia alone.
If you assume reported cases represent 50% of the true size of the epidemic, as many epidemiologists are saying, then that number doubles to 811,628.
However, I'm working on an improvement in the model that accounts for different Daily Transmission Rates in each country, and also accounts for the fact that only active cases transmit Ebola to new patients.
The article talks as if there is some universally available Ebola preventative. That ain’t so - Pilgrim.
The few successful treatments were done in especially equipped and trained medical research centers with equipment and professional staff not available to “regular” US hospitals. Lets not talk about most hospitals in the third world nor military field hospitals.
BTW - the last time I look military field hospitals were designed and equipped to handle “typical” combat injuries not Ebola. The medical requirements, logistics and equipment are at the opposite ends of the medical spectrum.
The confirmed case numbers are still ramping up. And, the biggest issue isn’t necessarily the confirmed cases - those can be handled in some degree or another. Its the unconfirmed cases that will case the numbers to grow.
Like it or not a total travel embargo might be the only way to contain this pandemic. Confinement for 3 days doesn’t mean squat with the virus has an incubation period of 21 - 28 days. The 3 day confinement was a political stunt based on something other than sound medical practice.
Boxun Description of Ebola in China
Recombinomics Commentary
July 19, 2005
1. EB-SZ type:...Incubation period is 2-4 weeks. Some individual cases have incubation period up to 6 months. Some cases are asymptomatic...co-infections and complications...diathesis from the major blood vessels. In severe cases, blood vessels disintegrate; muscular tissues became fluid-like; patients died of lack of oxygen due to haemorrhage. After the case die, the disintegration symptoms persist...The process continues until the carcass completely disintegrates.... 2. EB-ST type:...Incubation period: 30-120 days...This virus is suspected to be the mutated by-product of Ebola virus and other viruses... 3. EB-HN type:...Transmission is unknown. Incubation is about 30-60 days...After the disintegration of blood vessels, patients experience symptoms related to blood loss. Most of the deceased cases' heavily infected organs were in their lungs. If the blood vessels of the internal organs were infected, it will cause hepatic damage. Deceased case's face and bottom will disintegrate within 2-8 hours afterwards;... 6. EB-SZ77 type: It was found in Shenzhen of South China (adjacent to Hong Kong). This virus could infect birds.
... Other boxun documents indicate details of H5N1 and Ebola infections are considered state secrets,...
A CHINESE BIOWEAPON ALMOST GOT OUT OF CONTROL IN 2005.
http://neubarth.blogspot.com/2012/11/a-chinese-bioweapon-almost-got-out-of.html
I am a former Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Warfare Officer in the United States Navy. What I believe we saw was a bio-weapon that was deliberately or accidentally released from a Chinese Bio-Weapons Lab in Sichuan. Hence the attempt to name it Sichuan Sheet,...
What was this biological weapon that I believe the Chinese have perfected by now? I believe it was a form of "Air or proximity transmitted (coughing sneezing) Ebola that could pass from person to person as easily as the common flu. If it was released on purpose, it was a perfect time to do so, because the newspapers in the region were covering the Bird Flu outbreak, and the bio-weapon release story could be lost in the Bird Flu story as the Bird Flu spread out of China...
The Bioweapon was very lethal at the beginning and the Chinese were frantic about getting it contained. Thousands of troops were rushed into Sichuan and other regions that it was detected including the Qinghai Lakes area where H5N1 Bird Flu was also breaking out at the same time. People were ordered to stay in their houses and not come out. Death squads of soldiers were sent from infected village to infected village and were eliminating whole villages and bulldozing the bodies under. Then all of the troops who were involved in the slaughter were killed. There was one report of a whole battalion of troops being marched into a large abandoned coal mine. Once they were all in there, the mine entrance was blown shut and all of those soldiers were left to die.
It looks like your model may be more accurate than you thought. A frightening scenario.
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