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To: Georgia Girl 2; scouter

A question for Scouter


21 posted on 09/22/2014 7:08:28 PM PDT by BenLurkin (This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both.)
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To: BenLurkin
How many is Scouter’s model predicring by Jan 2015? I can’t remember.

Assuming that the reported number of cases represents the true size of the epidemic, my model projects 405,814 cases by January 31 in Liberia alone.

If you assume reported cases represent 50% of the true size of the epidemic, as many epidemiologists are saying, then that number doubles to 811,628.

However, I'm working on an improvement in the model that accounts for different Daily Transmission Rates in each country, and also accounts for the fact that only active cases transmit Ebola to new patients.

22 posted on 09/22/2014 7:19:13 PM PDT by scouter (As for me and my household... We will serve the LORD.)
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