Posted on 06/26/2014 9:53:10 AM PDT by Uncle Chip
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 was "highly likely" on autopilot when it ran out of fuel and crashed into the Indian Ocean, Australian researchers have said.
A new search area for the missing Boeing 777 plane has been announced by the Australian government ....
Deputy Prime Minister Warren Trust confirmed the search will move further south to an area 1,800km (1,100 miles) off the western coast of Australia....
An expert group has reviewed the existing information on MH370, revealing that is it probable that the plane was on autopilot when it ended its flight.
Truss said it was "highly, highly likely that the aircraft was on autopilot" when it went down.
"Otherwise it could not have followed the orderly path that has been identified through the satellite sightings," he told reporters.
Martin Dolan, commissioner of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, which is leading the search, said the plane was believed to have been deliberately set to autopilot "somewhere off the western tip of Sumatra" - although the exact point at which it was set is unknown.
The assessment was based on the understanding that the plane flew on a straight path.
"Certainly for its path across the Indian Ocean we are confident that the aircraft was operating on autopilot until it went out of fuel," he said.
A 64-page report revealed at a press conference on Thursday revealed the search would now be covering up to 60,000 square kilometres along narrow arc in the Indian Ocean, which has been identified as the most likely resting place of MH370.
"The new priority area is still focused on the seventh arc, where the aircraft last communicated with satellite.
"We are now shifting our attention to an area further south along the arc based on these calculations."
(Excerpt) Read more at uk.news.yahoo.com ...
I’m simply accepting NOAs numbers for “statute miles” just to be consistent — and hoping that they are making the necessary adjustments if any are needed.
But I was incorrect re:New Amsterdam Island — it is several hundreds miles west of that southern heading.
Using the 18:29 Frequency Burst as the time of its turn south just above Banda Aceh at N7.5E96 straight south to S38E87 on the 8:11 arc is 3195 miles.
N7.5E96 to S26.5E90 on the 7:11 arc is 2382 miles reachable at ~507mph.
S38E87 on the 8:11 arc is 801 miles further — not doable in an hour.
BUT if at 7:11 he took it off that heading and turned east toward Perth he would have hit the 8:11 arc at S32E96 in an hour at 524mph — very doable.
So it had to have come off of autopilot at ~7:11 or the 8:11 arc would not have been reached —
But why he would do that is anybody’s guess.
Angus Houston ... assumed that the flight had been on autopilot even if a conscious pilot had been at the controls. That is because a Boeing 777 is a very difficult plane to fly manually....
University of New South Wales aviation expert Peter Marosszeky said if the autopilot was still working when the plane crashed, it suggests the aircraft’s communications systems were switched off rather than disabled by a major malfunction or catastrophe.
Were the pings received at equal time intervals?
According to Inmarsat they were hourly — from 3:11 to 8:11 and then something at 8:19.
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: Someone in Cockpit May Have Plotted Flight Plan to Australia
Search Report:
Report shows likely point of turn south to be N7E95 @ ~18:29
However the report is silent regarding where they think the plane was between 18:22 and 19:41.
How do they come up with the endpoint of all these paths without identifying the starting point of the paths and then subsequent paths through the arcs of pings???
N7E95 [point of likely turn south] to S30E97.5 [center of search area] is 2560 miles
From 18:29 to 24:11 is 5:42 minutes which would mean an average speed of ~450mph.
From page 32 of the report the central flight path to center of search area:
S10E95 on 2141 arc to S18E96.5 on 2241 arc is 561 miles @ 561mph
And from there to S30E97.5 on the 2411 arc is 831 miles @ 560mph
The autopilot works there for the last 2:30 but not further upstream for the earlier 3:12 —
It means that for the central flight path the plane averaged 377mph over the first 3:12 for 1208 miles and then 560mph over the last 2:30 for the final 1352 miles.
That’s not exactly autopilot —
From page 8 of the Report:
N7E103.5 [point of turnaround] @ 17:19 to ~Penang Island @ N5.3E100.3 is 251 miles
From there northwest to N7E95 [where the plane was headed above Indonesia] is 382 miles.
That’s a combined distance of 633 miles taking 70 minutes @542mph at the point of the 18:29 frequency burst.
It’s hard to believe that the plane could have flown faster and gone any further north or west than ~N7E95 — a point that clears Indonesian radar and gives him a straight shot south.
From page 32 of the report:
N7E95 [point of turn south] to S17.5E92 on the 2141 Arc is 1704 miles over 3:12 @ 532.5mph. Fine
Along that same line from S17.5E92 to S25E91 on the 2241 Arc is 522 miles @ 522mph. Fine
However along that same line to the 2411 Arc @ S37.5E87.5 is 887 miles meaning it would have had to average 591.3mph over the last 1.5 hours. That’s not autopilot and it’s also not likely.
But if he veered eastward toward Perth at about the 2241 Arc he could have hit the center of the search area of the 2411 Arc @ S30E97.5 in 1.5 hours after 527 miles at as slow as 350mph.
Either way it appears that a change of speed and/or direction was made at ~22:41 — coming off of autopilot for those changes to be made at that time.
Thus there had to be somebody alive at that time to make those changes to the autopilot.
Everyone else may have died of hypoxia before that but there was a live person making those course changes in the cockpit @ ~22:41 at the end of the flight.
The likely flight south through the Arcs:
18:25 — 4 minutes SE of N7E95 travelling @542mph
18:29 — N7E95 [point of turn south]
19:41 — S2E93 — 637 miles @ 531mph
20:41 — S9.75E92.5 — 536 miles @536mph
21:41 — S17.5E92 — 536 miles @536mph
22:41 — S25E91 — 522 miles @522mph [point of turn to east toward Perth]
24:11 — S30E97.5 — 527 miles @351mph [center of search area]
___________________________________________________
24:11 — S37.5E87.5 — 887 miles @591mph [continuation south]
corrected course continuation:
24:11 — S36.5E88.5 — 808 miles @538.6mph [continuation south]
24:11 — S37E88.75 — 839 miles @559.3mph [continuation south]
but still would have had to increase speed from 522mph in order to reach 2411 Arc in hour and half.
What’s the hurry at that point with so little fuel left.
Just slow down at that point and turn toward Perth to the sun rising in the east and with the sun in your face attempt your final landing.
To reach the 2411 Arc at 24:11 the pilot would have had to access autopilot:
1]to increase the speed if he wanted to stay on the same course OR
2]to change his course a little to the east but maintain the same speed OR
3]to slow the speed and and change the direction eastward along with a probable gradual descent.
Any way you go the autopilot would have had to been turned off, accessed and reprogrammed, before being turned on again at that point to get it to the 2411 Arc at 24:11 — meaning that somebody hadn’t succumbed to hypoxia at that point and they were just not taking calls when ground control called them at 23:13 am for their morning wake-up call.
If at S25E91 @2241 at 22:41 the pilot changed course and speed to the east to the light to the rising sun toward Perth the plane would have reached the 2411 Arc after 583 miles @389mph at:
S27.5E100 — start looking there along the 2411 Arc to the southwest
Most likely route of MH370 from the report:
17:19 — N7E103.5 [point of turnaround] @ 17:19
**** — N5.3E100.3 [Penang Island] 251 miles then northwest for 382 miles
18:25 — 4 minutes SE of N7E95 travelling @542mph
18:29 — N7E95 [633 miles & 70 minutes from point of turnaround]
18:29 — N7E95 [point of turn south]
19:41 — S2E93 — 637 miles @ 531mph
20:41 — S9.75E92.5 — 536 miles @536mph
21:41 — S17.5E92 — 536 miles @536mph
22:41 — S25E91 — 522 miles @522mph [autopilot likely disengaged here]
24:11 — S37E88.75 — 839 miles @559.3mph [same heading but higher mph]
24:11 — S36.25E89 — 786 miles @524mph [same heading but still too fast and outside the central search area]
24:11 — S30E97.5 — 527 miles @351mph [east and slower and center of search area]
24:11 — S27.5E100 — 583 miles @389mph [more eastward toward Perth and NE edge of search area]
22:41 — S25E91.5 — 519 miles @519mph [autopilot likely disengaged here]
24:11 — S36E90.5 — 762 miles @508mph [same heading but slower mph and doable but outside the search area]
Flight path northwest on page 8 puts MH370 at ~N6.6E96.3 at 18:22. So let’s add it all in to see what it looks like:
16:41 — KLA N2.73E101.71 to points of turnaround — IGARI [17:19] then to N7E103.5 [17:21] totalling 325 miles.
17:21 — N7E103.5 — on heading west
—— — N5.3E100.3 — 250 miles Penang Island where it turns NW.
18:22 — N6.6E96.3 — 289 miles NW of Penang Island. 539 miles covered by that point averaging 530mph.
18:29 — N6.85E95.45 [turning point southwest] — 61 miles @530mph.
19:41 — S2E93 — 634 miles @528mph
20:41 — S9.75E92.5 — 536 miles @536mph
21:41 — S17.5E92 — 536 miles @536mph
22:41 — S25.25E91.5 — 536 miles @536mph [autopilot had to have been disengaged about here to slow the speed and/or change course eastward to the rising sun]
24:11 — S36E90.5 — 745 miles @496mph [same line slower speed]. Total to this point 3895 miles.
24:11 — S30E97.5 — 527 miles @351mph [eastward and slower speed to search area]. Total to this point 3677 miles.
24:11 — S27.5E100 — 583 miles @389mph [eastward and slower speed to search area]. Total to this point 3733 miles.
No matter which way it ends on the 2411 Arc the autopilot would have had to been accessed at ~22:41 to change speed and/or direction and there would have been enough fuel onboard to fly further than the 2411 Arc and even the 2419 Arc — thus meaning that a live pilot may have crashed it at that point or tried to land it unsuccessfully in the water. It’s not likely to have run out of fuel on autopilot.
From Page 27 of the report:
The 1825 and 2419 Arcs: Log On Requests
The 1825 and 0019 SATCOM handshakes were log-on requests initiated by the aircraft. A log-on request in the middle of a flight is not common and can occur for only a few reasons. These include a power interruption to the aircraft satellite data unit (SDU), a software failure, loss of critical systems providing input to the SDU or a loss of the link due to aircraft attitude.
An analysis was performed which determined that the characteristics and timing of the logon requests were best matched as resulting from power interruption to the SDU.
18:25 Log On Request took place shortly after its last radar reading at 18:22 and just before its 18:29 turn south. He may have inadvertently hit the wrong switch preparing for the turn south or hit it deliberately to cut power to disguise his turn south.
Then there is this:
18:39 — Unanswered ground to air telephone call #1 at 18:39 shortly after it would have come off autopilot at 18:29 for its turn south.
23:14 — Unanswered ground to air telephone call #2 at 23:13 shortly after it would have then come off autopilot again this time at 22:41 for its turn east.
Coincidence????
So let’s plug it all in to the timeline:
16:41 — KLA N2.73E101.71 to points of turnaround — IGARI [17:19] then to N7E103.5 [17:21] totalling 325 miles.
17:21 — N7E103.5 — on heading west
—— — N5.3E100.3 — 250 miles Penang Island where it turns NW.
18:22 — N6.6E96.3 — 289 miles NW of Penang Island. 539 miles covered by that point averaging 530mph.
18:25 — Log On Request
18:29 — N6.85E95.45 [Turning Point] — 61 miles @530mph.
18:39 — Unanswered ground to air telephone call #1.
19:41 — S2E93 — 634 miles @528mph
20:41 — S9.75E92.5 — 536 miles @536mph
21:41 — S17.5E92 — 536 miles @536mph
22:41 — S25.25E91.5 — 536 miles @536mph [autopilot had to have been disengaged about here to slow the speed and/or change course eastward to the rising sun]
23:14 — Unanswered ground to air telephone call #2.
24:11 — S36E90.5 — 745 miles @496mph [same line slower speed]. Total to this point 3895 miles.
24:11 — S30E97.5 — 527 miles @351mph [eastward and slower speed to search area]. Total to this point 3677 miles.
24:11 — S27.5E100 — 583 miles @389mph [eastward and slower speed to search area]. Total to this point 3733 miles.
24:19 — Log On Request
About the 18:25 Log On Request:
New evidence of MH370 cockpit tampering emerges in probe
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