Vanity - Kentucky Derby 2013 Picks and Predictions

5/04/2013 | Self

[Slump Tester]

Lets's start a thread for posting our Derby picks. We need an FR bookie. We can play for told-ya-sos.

I'm a cheapskate who's broke all the time, so I'm only betting on the big race. I'm putting $2 across the boards on "Normandy Invasion" and also $2 across the boards on "Frac Daddy".

I know it's stupid to pick them because you like their names, but every once in a while it works. I picked a horse named "Frisk Me Now" once in some podunk race and it won even though it went off at like 50 or 60:1.

The last time we went to the derby was in 2006, I lost small bets all day Friday at the Oaks and the next day at the derby. I had 6 bucks on a horse in the big race to place that was at 15:1, and he placed and I got almost everything back I had lost. I went home about $15 in the red. Not bad for 2 days of fun.

What was really stupid though was that I had picked the 2rd place horse, and my other half had correctly bet the 1st and 3rd places. If we had combined our picks for a trifecta (just $6), it would have paid out over 11 grand!

[Slump Tester]

1. Onyx: SCRATCHED
2. Oxbow 25/1: Gary Stevens
3. Revolutionary 5/1: Calvin Borel
4. Golden Soul 31/1: Robby Albarado
5. Normandy Invasion 8/1: Javier Castellano
6. Mylute 14/1: Rosie Napravnik
7. Giant Finish 44/1: Jose Espinoza
8. Goldencents 5/1: Kevin Krigger
9. Overanalyze 14/1: Rafael Benajaro
10. Palace Malice 26/1: Mike Smith
11. Lines of Battle 42/1: Ryan Moore
12. Itsmyluckyday 11/1: Elvis Trujillo
13. Falling Sky 49/1: Luis Saez
14. Verrazano 11/1: John Velazquez
15. Charming Kitten 32/1: Edgar Prado
16. Orb 6/1: Joel Rosario
17. Will Take Charge 31/1: Jon Court
18. Frac Daddy 15/1: Victor Lebron
19. Java's War 22/1: Julien Leparoux
20. Vyjack 43/1: Garrett Gomez
21. Fear The Kitten: SCRATCHED

I should have probably picked "Revolutionary" or "Vyjack" just because of their jockeys, but I'm going on names that jump out at me this year.

Ok Freepers - what are YOUR picks?

[navysealdad]

Revolutionary

[dynachrome]

I woulda picked “Fear the Kitten”. I see Onyx is also scratched. WTH? No Freeper horses? LOL

[dfwgator]

And here comes the winnerrrrrrrrrrrrr........Feetlebaum!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BavRrRNvz8g

[FreedomPoster]

The best muddier, having looked at the radar this AM. This will be a very muddy Derby. I’m sure glad I didn’t shell out big bucks for a ticket.

[FlJoePa]

I stumbled upon this guy's Derby system/formula last week. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

He ranks the horses thus:

1. Orb
2. Revolutionary
3. Goldencents
4. Verrazano
5. Itsmyluckyday
6. Overanalyze
7. Java’s War
8. Lines of Battle
9. Black Onyx
10. Will Take Charge

Derby Strikes System

[mrs. a]

I bet a Normandy Invasion/Oxbow Exacta Box, and another bet on Orb to win/place/show.

Normandy Invasion at my father’s recommendation, and Oxbow because that’s the brand of chinchilla pellets our guy eats.

Orb because I like the look of the horse.

I’m new to this betting thing - let’s see how I do.

[onyx]

Well heck.

Black Onyx is scratched!

I like trainers Doug O’Neil and Chad Brown.

Their horses are: Goldencents and Normandy Invasion

[IwaCornDogs]

Picked him as well after reading this. His nickname is D Day. Thought you might enjoy ...
http://www.armytimes.com/article/20130503/NEWS/305030026

[onyx]

DrO says MyLute with the girl jockey...LOL.

[RedMDer]

I like Normandy Invasion :)

VIKINGS!

[RedMDer]

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[newfreep]

Frac Daddy - just because I love the name!

[RWGinger]

Great Thread
I need to see if there is information on how any horse has run in the mud.
Horses either like it or they hate it

[EricT.]

Going out on a limb here, but I think a horse will win.

[supremedoctrine]

I just sent out a massive 12 paragraph email to relatives and
*riends who requested it: I won’t burden this thread with that letter:
I think VERRAZANO will try to steal it on the lead, and i*
any jock could pull that o** it would be John Velazquez/
ALSO-—the once-a-contender, but now much-downgraded horse, VYJACK, going *rom the #20
post, will have no choice but to get out quickly and save ground, so I expect the early going might between him and VERRAZANO. HOWEVER, I think this race will belong to either
a closer (and there are many o* them) or the British Invader, LINES O* BATTLE, who looks like he could rate right
behind whoever’s on the lead, then strike in the last 1/8th mile.
Aside *rom the *avorites, who are all eminently beatable,
I like Normandy Invasion, Lines o Battle, Java’s War, and
Itsmyluckyday. The super*ecta will pay huge i* two o* those
get into the top 4.
BEST VALUE PLAYS 4 THE WIN: LINES O BATTLE, Java’s War.
Best exacta Normandy Invasion/Lines o* Battle/Java’s War.
This Derby is bound to have unprecedentedly huge payo**s,
pretty much across the board.That tends to happen with *ields this big, and NO CLEAR CHALK CHOICE.Too many secondary choices and endless combinations tend to get
the bettors’ mind all agitated, so they stick with the easy choices.

[onyx]

I was thinking about that, too.

I love horse racing and used to be seriously into it.

Wish I had time to study this race.

I love to pick the winner.

[miele man]

When did the Derby change to running on a Sunday? I thought it was always the first Saturday in May.

[SomeCallMeTim]

1st time in 12 years I’ve not been AT Churchill for the Derby... but, seeing the cold rain today? I’m not too upset about it.

I like Goldencents and Verrazano to win. They are on top of ALL my exotic bets.

The odds are good enough for WP bets on Itsmyluckyday, Overanalyze (great MUD horse), and Java’s War.

[Slump Tester]

Google is our friend: 2013 Kentucky Derby Horses That Run Best in Mud: The Mudders