Posted on 12/16/2012 8:21:13 PM PST by campaignPete R-CT
AFC
for a bye:
Hous has head-to-head over DEN, giving them stronghold on #1 seed and bye NE has head-to-head OVER HOUS and DEN
MI has tiebreaker over CIN/PT, still kickin' with an 8-8 finish. Their 6-6 conf record will give them tiebreaker. NYJ has tiebreaker over CIN, IND, but not PT. They have a shot at 9-7, but eliminated at 8-8.
cin/pt uncommon games is 1=1, so common games will be tied. Winner of head-to-head in week 16 clinches tiebreaker.
BALT-CINN-PITT all went 1-1 in uncommon, so common amoungst the 3 is clinched to be a tie and therefore no longer a factor in any divisional tiebreaker.
BALT is playing for seeding in the wildcard round. They have clinched tiebreaker over CINN (div record) and clinched tiebreaker over PITT (conf record)
TIEBREAKERS FOR INDY, if:
PT 9-7
CIN 9-7
IND 9-7
CONFERENCE WILL BE 6-6 FOR ALL 3 TEAMS
IND VS. CIN, BOTH 3-2 COMMON GAMES
IND VS. PIT, BOTH 3-2 COMMON GAMES
therefore, the IND tiebreaker goes to SOV (strength of victory) with both teams. [note, the NYJ at 9-7 would be 7-5 conf and therefore sweep in, in a 3-way tie, or head to head vs. INDY)
SOV current:
PITT 60 wins (at 9-7)
CIN 46 wins (at 9-7)
INDY 48 wins (at 9-7)
INDY could be out of playoffs at 9-7. Of course, they play @ KC next week. And they have a slight lead over CIN in SOV. (Jets are "on the march", too. Sort of.)
NFC
bye: GB has tiebreaker over ATL (conf record)
Giants are in bad shape within the division, but have tiebreakers vs MN and CHI (conf record)
if DAL beats WASH final week, creating a tie and a tie DIV record ... DAL vs WASH common games:
DAL uncommon is 0-2 (SEA CHI) WASH uncommon is 1-1 (STL MINN) therefore DAL has clinched common over WASH
NYG is 2-0 uncommon, so DAL & WASH have common games over NYG NYG have no tiebreakers vs either DAL or WASH, they are in deep dire straits.
MN has clinched common games over CHI. Therefore has clinched tiebreaker over CHI. CHI cannot have better DIV rec if the 2 teams tie.
(head to head is split.) but MN has much tougher schedule.
NYG & WASH tiebreakers over the other 3 wildcarders {MN CHI SEA) in CONF record here is NFC head-to-head:
........... NYG DAL WASH CHI MN SEA
NYG ......X ...... X ...... X ... X ..... X ... X
DAL ,,,,, X,,. X ..... wa ... CHI ... X ... SEA
WASH ... X .. .. wa ... X .... X .... WASH ... X
CHI .... X .. CHI ...... X .... X ... X ... SEA
MN .... X .. X ....... WA .... X ... X ... SEA
SEA ..... X ,, SEA .... X ... SEA ... SEA X
example: SEA beat DAL CHI MN, did not play the other 3
there is still a game outstanding WA vs. DAL which is why 'wa' is lower case.
It obviously looks like the winner of PT-CIN in week 16 is golden as is the winner of DAL-WASH in week 17. MN vs CHI likely comes down to final week. INDY would simplify everything with a clinching win vs KC in week 16.
Huh?
here is a look at the NFC 9-7 ties, if it ends:
WASH 9-7
DAL 9-7
NYG 9-7
MN 9-7
CHI 9-7
then the winner of WASH-DAL game gets the Division. Let’s say it is WASH. Then DAL gets 2nd place over NYG (div record and/or common games)
MN gets 2nd place over CHI (div record and/or common games)
therefore MN vs DAL for 2nd wildcard. DAL 6-6 conf and MN either 7-5 or 6-6. next tie would go to common games. Common games would be tied (1-4 each, CHI, WA, TB, SEA). So it would go to SOV, if DAL lost to WASH.
yep, NFL tiebreaker lingo is gibberish. Worse that the tax code.
Dal loses to NO, then loses to Wash; Wash beats Phil, then beats Dal...how does that tie break?
NFL tiebreaker ping, if you can handle it
REdskins on a roll, taking the division per harpu
MN leads DAL in SOV 55-53. So it is close and DAL has a chance vs MN in tiebreaker.
Assumes 9-7 and the MN victory is against HOUS. If it is against GB, MN gets it on better conf record.
True, but I've got to admit, I admire anyone who can comprehend that stuff.
If New Orleans win out, while Minnesota, Chicago, Dallas, and New York (Giants) all lose, I was amazed to find that the Saints win the tie breakers. By all rights, they should have been out of it.
NYG has clinched common over MN 4-1 to 2-3, therefore has clinched tiebreaker.
yep, N.O. and MN would be tied with 6-6 conference record. goes to common games N.O. vs. MN. So N.O. has incentive to beat DAL next week.
NO wins common games over MN 2-3 vs. 1-4
All Dallas has to do is win its remaining games (no ties) and Dallas wins the divison.
Shocked by the good news for the Texans last night. They get the No. 1 seed by simply winning one of their last two games or NE or Denver losing one their last two games.
You mean the Saints aren’t eliminated with all those teams ahead of them? I guess the stars could align in a 1- 1,000,000 event.
Saints 2 x {1 in 2^9} to make the playoffs which is:
2 x 1/(8 x 8 x 8) = 1 in 256. (if every game is 50/50)
yes, HOUS is a strong position with h2h over DEN.
NYJ has common over MI which comes into play only if NYJ 8th win is vs. Buffalo. Would eliminate Miami.
Bender ping.
i was wrong on Saints. It is 1 in 512 or 0.2% which complies with cool standings.
http://coolstandings.com/football/football_standings.asp
use dumb option for every game 50/50.
I had NO with TIE-br over WA and not true. Saints need WA to win the division, allowing Saints to win with Saints having tiebreaker over MN and DAL at 8-8.
If the Giants and Cowboys both lose out, Washington does win the division. They would have 9 wins (they play Dallas yet), while New York and Dallas would have 8.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.