i was wrong on Saints. It is 1 in 512 or 0.2% which complies with cool standings.
http://coolstandings.com/football/football_standings.asp
use dumb option for every game 50/50.
I had NO with TIE-br over WA and not true. Saints need WA to win the division, allowing Saints to win with Saints having tiebreaker over MN and DAL at 8-8.
If the Giants and Cowboys both lose out, Washington does win the division. They would have 9 wins (they play Dallas yet), while New York and Dallas would have 8.