ELECTION PREDICTIONS for retread troll ZOT Thread

Troll Analysis | 11-2-12

[stroll]

Starting with the best available source of trend data and adding a bit of thought and analysis, I come up with the following conclusions.

First, the reasoning:

The Northeast: The Northeast is a solid Democratic Party stronghold, and with the growth of the Northern Virginia suburbs has expanded to include that state in its political orbit.

The South: The South remains mostly Republican. However, Hurricane Sandy exerts a strong political impact here, giving President Obama an opportunity to display his leadership chops while reminding people of Dubya's inept handling of Katrina. This effect isn't great enough to tip the Gulf States, but does point toward a repeat Democratic victory in Florida and (possibly) North Carolina.

The Midwest: Mitt Romney's "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" editorial hurt him badly in the Rust Belt; his ill-considered attempt to weasel his way out of the situation with a fact-check-fail ad compounded the damage. Indiana is an idiosyncratic Red patch in this Blue field, though Mourdoch's shot from the lip just might inflict spillover damage on the rest of the GOP ticket.

The Plains: The Plains states are a solid GOP stronghold. One possible wild card is Missouri, where Akin may have damaged the party brand as well sinking his own candidacy. Nebraska's split electoral system allows Omaha to tilt its district Blue, as in 2008.

The Mountain West: A GOP stronghold, as usual. (Alaska included in this group). The wild card is whether Colorado aligns with this group or with the Southwest (see below).

The Southwest: The growing Hispanic vote, combined with GOP hostilty on the immigration issue, is tilting the Southwest bluer. Arizona is probably still red, but without a native-son advantage such as the party had in 2008 this is less certain.

The Pacific Coast: A Democratic Party stronghold, as usual. (Hawaii included in this group)

The results of this calculation come out as follows:

GOP Best-Case Scenario

GOP Worst-Case Scenario

[TheOldLady]

So long, stroll (Posting History)
Hat Tip to Las Vegas Ron, Darkwing104, and thanks to Eaker for the Viking Kitty graphic
O'Bambibot troll attempts to dispirit FReepers and ends up as Viking Kitty chow


Don't even try to run that jive past us, n00b troll



FReepmail TheOldLady to get ON or OFF the ZOT LIGHTNING ping list.

[Thunder90]

Hey S-TROLL, eat nukes!

[bcsco]

It would appear, stroll, you're gone for a stroll. In fact, something more permanent than that. Funny how that doesn't bother me. I suspect it's because you weren't around long enough to make an impression, nor long enough to be effective. And that last point says it all. Good bye. Good riddance, Lots of bad luck. Now, for the fun...

Satchmo ZOT!!

[MEG33]

He's A Goner

[JoeProBono]

[SunkenCiv]

[singing] There’s a kind of hush, all over the board...

[Bikkuri]

Very nice Tol, the best I’ve seen yet :)

[HannibalHamlinJr]

Oh, my bad. "I’d like to see that outcome on Tuesday." ... I've yet to hear a dem statement about the outcome that doesn't indicate 302 - 338 EVs.

In each narrative they spin, about how they are ahead, about where Mitt's in trouble, about this or that Republican campaign move indicating desperation, there is always an irrefutable conspicuous fact missing in the structure of their argument which, if supplied, would negate exactly the thesis they are weaving.

Looked at that way, the dem shills are doing more to spin a strong Republican outcome than Gingrich and Morris, each of whom has predicted 6 points and over 300 EV. I'm at about 6 ... but 8 will not surprise me. 53.3 to 46.4 is where I put it.

It will be sweet if the 47%'ers are reduced to the 46%'ers. Either way, I think Mitt's statement and the stigma of it will be forgotten when it comes true on election day. Everyone knows he was talking about the electorate, and 'not worrying about them' meant 'while campaigning for votes.'

[DarthVader]

I see you blown apart into 1000 assorted pieces.

[Old Sarge]

What do you see in your crystal ball?

I SEE NAUGHT BUT THY DEMISE!
NOW TASTE OF MY BLADE, FOUL TROLLISH PERSON!

[GeronL]

I don't care how many EV's Romney wins by....

I just want to see America from my house again

[DarthVader]

My prediction is you have been Zotted with Extreme Prejudice!!

[Flotsam_Jetsome]

"My crystal ball says your boss will be shaving off his mustache next Wednesday."

Nice one. I don't think he'll actually do it, though. He's, a 'Rat, and they're liars, with that guy right up there with the all-time biggest of them.

[Flotsam_Jetsome]

Thanks for the Ping.

I think stroll may be the return of this guy.

He's been spewing his crap at HA recently, and I think they may lower the boom soon, also.

[Berlin_Freeper]

Hurricane Sandy exerts a strong political impact here, giving President Obama an opportunity to display his leadership chops

DRUDGE
Drivers Waiting 6 Hours For Gas in NYC...
Tempers Rise in Wake of Storm...
'Finding bodies left and right'...
Restaurant, hotel prices skyrocket...
CHUCK SCHUMER CONFRONTED: 'We Are Gonna Die!'
CRAIGSLIST: $15 a gallon...
Utility workers pelted with eggs...
Misery...
'We have nothing'...
Residents Furious RED CROSS Offering Cookies & Hot Chocolate, Not Blankets Or Clothes...
Jet Fuel Supply Fast Becoming Concern At Airports...
Staten Islanders Plead for Help: 'We Need Food'...
'Please don't leave us'...
VIDEO: Stranded New Yorkers Defecating in Apartment Buildings...
DIRE...
NJ counties enact 70s style gas rationing... Developing...

I would predict your ZOT but I am late on that so let me go with self mutilation in the form of "sex change". Actually I may be late on that too. I predict your mother cursing God so I give a prayer for you both.

[TheOldLady]

I love that one!

[TheOldLady]

Your parting shot at stroll? Very droll... [smiles]

[TheOldLady]

[giggles]

[TheOldLady]

You’re in fine voice, Mr. Civilizations.

[TheOldLady]

The credit goes to Tom Eaker for the nice fractal graphic. He’s my friend.