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Seven Products, Concepts, and Ideas That Won't Exist by 2025
Motley Fool ^
| 08/21/2012
| Sean Williams
Posted on 08/21/2012 2:33:22 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
I'm sort of ashamed to admit that Friday night's baseball game between the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies is the inspiration for this article. As a sidebar to the actual game itself, the broadcasters noted that someone had built a replica DeLorean hovercraft and was riding it around McCovey Cove in San Francisco, Calif.
This got me thinking (yes, a replica hovercraft DeLorean inspired me; laugh all you want), what if we could travel into the past, or better yet, into the future to see what products, concepts, and ideas survived and which ones drifted away. Back to the Future II wasn't exactly the best predictor of what the future would be like. According to the movie, in three years we're supposed to have flying cars and a Pepsi is expected to cost close to $50. Neither of those predictions looks even remotely feasible, although I will give the movie credit for correctly predicting a baseball team in Miami.
So today, I'm going to give you my best Doc Brown and highlight seven products, concepts, and ideas that won't exist by the year 2025. I could well be wrong, but these seven things are a long way from hitting 88 MPH and sending themselves back to better times.
Products
- Digital cameras: Come on, you knew there was going to be at least one no-brainer in here! Chances are that if you own a smartphone, the camera in your phone has a higher resolution than the digital camera you own. This is one reason Eastman Kodak bit the dust (one of a dozen may I add) and is another reason why it's crucial to pay attention to camera display sensor companies like OmniVision Technologies (Nasdaq: OVTI ) that are driving camera innovation in devices from both Apple and Samsung. With new smartphones sporting 8MP cameras, and resolutions increasing yearly, why wouldn't digital cameras go extinct?
- 3-D televisions: Personally, I'm surprised 3-D televisions still exist now, just two years after debuting on the market. Of the seven things listed here, this is the fad of all fads, and is one of the primary reasons why Best Buy (NYSE: BBY ) , which bet big on 3-D TVs, has been in a downward spiral in recent months. There are plenty of reasons that 3-D TVs are staying out of people's homes, including high price points, the need for ridiculous glasses, and frankly, very little content is currently available in 3-D. Lower 3-D set prices could bring a short revival of sales in the future, but the likelihood of 3-D content expanding dramatically amid already tepid sales makes this technology's survival a long shot.
- Energy drinks: I can almost see teenagers across America, as well as white-collar workers on Wall Street, foaming at the mouth because of this statement. I admit, I'm not an energy drink buyer, period, but I can understand their mass appeal now. What I feel will do them in will be the ever-broadening scope of the Food and Drug Administration. At the moment the FDA is working its way under the tobacco industries' skin and could find its way into regulating the certain aspects of energy drinks including safety, ingredients, and manufacturing, within the next decade. That could be a crushing blow for energy drink giant Monster Beverage (Nasdaq: MNST ) , which generates more than 90% of its sales from its energy drinks.
- Credit cards: Sure, there will be a die-hard few who live in caves and refuse to relinquish their platinum miles card from their wallet, but the trend over the coming decade will be a move from plastic to near-field communication inspired modes of payment using mobile devices. NFC payments are more secure, quicker, and more convenient for users. Two companies that could benefit in a big way from this movement are Dolby Laboratories (NYSE: DLB ) and NXP Semiconductors (Nasdaq: NXPI ) . NXP makes the chips used in NFC-enabled mobile devices while Dolby Labs' subsidiary, Via Licensing, owns all NFC patents. This means big royalties anytime NFC technology is used in a mobile device. Keep your eye on these two names.
Concepts
- United States Post Office: Blame email or blame smartphones, but one way or another the post office is on its way out. The USPS defaulted on a required $5.5 billion payment to the postal workers' pension for the first time in its history earlier this month, and for the third quarter, the USPS lost a staggering $5.2 billion, or $57 million per day. That's an unsustainable government loss that's only expected to widen over the coming years and will prompt whichever party finds itself in office over the next decade to give the USPS the ax. FedEx, UPS, and other shippers have a few years to figure out how to pick up the slack before the USPS tips over from a stiff breeze.
- European Union: All the king's horses and all the king's men, couldn't solve the eurozone debt crisis if they threw everything they've got at it! After years of grossly mismanaging their budgets, Greece has accepted nearly $300 billion in aid from the EU to buoy its collapsing economy, Spain recently accepted $125 billion in aid for its banks, Ireland took $113 billion in aid, and Italy could be on the verge of needing assistance with its lending rates hovering around 6%. EU leaders can continue to sweep these problems further down the road, but at some point these problems are going to flush to the forefront all at once and the EU as we know it will not exist by 2025.
Ideas
- The United States is the pre-eminent superpower: Though some disagree, the United States' days as the world's most important nation are numbered. That doesn't mean the U.S. won't hold its lead in innovation and manufacturing, but China is well on its way to dethroning the U.S. in countless other categories. China already lays claim to the world's leading manufacturing output, energy consumption, and steel usage, and should, based on its current trajectory, easily surpass the U.S. in total GDP, retails sales, and imports by 2025. Simply put, people will be looking toward China to dictate global growth in the future first, not the United States.
Foolish roundup
There you have it -- 1.21 gigawatts of products, concepts, and ideas that are destined for extinction by 2025. Let me and your fellow Fools know your take on the above ideas in the comments section below, as well as other products, concepts, and ideas that could fall by the wayside over the next decade.
In order to stay relevant and not wind up on this list itself, Apple is going to need to stay vigilant and adjust its designs to meet consumers' needs. In our latest premium research report, our analysts have dissected the tech giant from every angle, giving you the opportunities and pitfalls that Apple will face. For less than a week's worth of coffee you too can gain an investing edge. Click here to get this premium report on Apple.
TOPICS: Business/Economy; Computers/Internet; Society
KEYWORDS: products; technology
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To: SeekAndFind
That doesn't mean the U.S. won't hold its lead in innovation and manufacturing....Real knee slapper here.
To: SeekAndFind
He is partially wrong on the cameras, But "point and click" models will prbably be overtaken by camera phones. Truth is, my 50 digital camera blows away the best picture from a cellphone. By 2025, that wont be the case, I would hope anyway!
That said, there is still a very large market for upscale cameras, and superzooms. You simply can't pack that kind of camera-ing in a small package, it violates the laws of optics. (That said, there might be some cool stuff coming eventually with thin film wave guid lensing).
3
posted on
08/21/2012 2:42:45 PM PDT
by
Paradox
(I want Obama defeated. Period.)
To: SeekAndFind
Not a bad list. They got 2 right out of 7 guesses: 3D TV and the EU.
To: SeekAndFind
I disagree about the 3-D televisions. People are buying them and 3-D movies are being made. What will eventually change is the need to wear glasses. Eventually this technology will be incorporated into the TVs themselves.
5
posted on
08/21/2012 2:45:21 PM PDT
by
Jonty30
(What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
To: SeekAndFind
The only one I agree with is the EU, and that is conditional. I think some sort of EU like union will exist but it will be smaller and less powerful.
To: SeekAndFind
“Digital cameras: With new smartphones sporting 8MP cameras, and resolutions increasing yearly, why wouldn’t digital cameras go extinct?”
I disagree with him on this one. The law of physics is never going to allow the same amount of light to be captured by your digital phone as the large lense on a real camera will. There will always be a market for cameras with a variety of lenses.
7
posted on
08/21/2012 2:47:47 PM PDT
by
MNDude
( Victimhood is the Holy Grail of liberalism)
To: SeekAndFind
Chances are that if you own a smartphone, the camera in your phone has a higher resolution than the digital camera you own. 1) False even as stated.
2) Pixel count on the focal plane isn't everything. If the lens is crap, the image will be crap.
3) I wonder how much this guy knows about optics? Even with adaptive optics and deformable lenses, size matters. Aperture is king.
8
posted on
08/21/2012 2:50:05 PM PDT
by
ArrogantBustard
(Western Civilization is Aborting, Buggering, and Contracepting itself out of existence.)
To: Paradox
I think the only surviving camera model (unless you’re a serious photographer) will be the camera-printer “instamatic” model. I just saw one the other day, tiny, basic, but prints out a 2x3 photo instantly. That’s exactly what a lot of people want, just a little physical souvenir to give to the subject of the photo.
Other than that, my only difference is that I’d say that the US will remain a superpower...if we get rid of Obama in this election, wipe up every trace of his foul passage through our national history, and go on with our lives.
9
posted on
08/21/2012 2:50:54 PM PDT
by
livius
To: SeekAndFind
The stories of US demise are greatly exaggerated. Most of China’s money comes from the US. Without us buying their junk, who are they going to sell it to?
10
posted on
08/21/2012 2:54:19 PM PDT
by
IronJack
(=)
To: Jonty30
I disagree about the 3-D televisions. People are buying them and 3-D movies are being made. What will eventually change is the need to wear glasses. Eventually this technology will be incorporated into the TVs themselves.I think the sales of 3D TVs are deceptive. Most new TVs and Blu-ray players are 3D whether the consumer wants it or not. I went ahead an bought a couple of pairs of active 3D glasses for my new 3D TV this year; but I'm not blown away by the technology. For the most part, 3D is just various 2D images which seem to be in 3D in relation to each other. the objects themselves still look 2D.
I admit I am looking forward to the Blu-ray releases announced for later this year from the golden age of 3D: Dial 'M' for Murder, House of Wax and Creature from the Black Lagoon.
11
posted on
08/21/2012 2:54:27 PM PDT
by
Sans-Culotte
( Pray for Obama- Psalm 109:8)
To: SeekAndFind
Regular digital cameras maybe (OK, probably), but digital SLR cameras will still be around for professional use.
3D TV: I can believe this one, unless they go to the IMAX type of thing, with polarized goggles instead of those stupid click-shutter need-to-be-connected-via-USB glasses. Then they need to make movies and such that don't try to wow you with the whole "3D experience". Make the 3D more subtle and it will seem more realistic.
12
posted on
08/21/2012 2:54:44 PM PDT
by
jeffc
(The U.S. media are our enemy)
To: Paradox
He is partially wrong on the cameras, But "point and click" models will prbably be overtaken by camera phones.I agree. I don't care how many megapixels a camera has if it has a crappy little lense. With cameras, optics are everthing.
13
posted on
08/21/2012 3:00:08 PM PDT
by
Inyo-Mono
(My greatest fear is that when I'm gone my wife will sell my guns for what I told her I paid for them)
To: jeffc
My 3D glasses are passive. I just put them on, similar to Imax.
However, the technology has developed to the point where it’s built into the tv itself, at least within the laboratories, which means commercial viability isn’t too far off.
14
posted on
08/21/2012 3:04:02 PM PDT
by
Jonty30
(What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
To: SeekAndFind
He didn't mention flat screens. I don't think they'll exist in another decade, except in the same sense that people still have CRT televisions kicking around in the basement. Holography and iGlasses will be sufficiently advanced that people will want to throw a pair on and go into the frame rather than just view a flat version on a screen.
I could be wrong but so what, wanna fight about it?
http://gizmodo.com/5923321/would-apple-iglass-be-better-than-googles-glasses
15
posted on
08/21/2012 3:04:21 PM PDT
by
Sirius Lee
(Goode over evil. Voting for mitt or obie is like throwing your country away.)
To: Inyo-Mono
Have you checked the Nokia purview? It’s supposed to be a generational leap for smartphone cameras. Im not saying it’s the equivalent of lens cameras.
16
posted on
08/21/2012 3:06:08 PM PDT
by
Jonty30
(What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
To: SeekAndFind
Televisions are a passing fad. I’m betting big on radio. I think we’ll all be huddled around large radio cabinets soon.
17
posted on
08/21/2012 3:08:19 PM PDT
by
youngidiot
(The name's Bond. James Bond. James Bond Jovi.)
To: SeekAndFind
To: Sans-Culotte
When 3D movies first came out, I didn’t think too much of it either. When I went to see Avatar 3D I got sick during the scenes when the protagonist was trying to ride his bird.
But I find it enjoyable when a 3D action causes me to react as if something is coming at me.
19
posted on
08/21/2012 3:10:57 PM PDT
by
Jonty30
(What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
To: SeekAndFind
Simply put, people will be looking toward China to dictate global growth in the future first, not the United States.
B.S.
The only reason such an oppressive slave-state grew in the last few decades is because of traitors transferring wealth and knowledge from free states like ours.
Innovation and development are always stifled in a slave state. There hasnt been a single Chinese invention under communism that even came close to the constant breakthroughs coming from the USA. People cant invent or think out of the box when they live in a Chinese factory (aka prison) their entire lives and do nothing but assembly line work.
They simply take our designs, processes, machines etc and make slaves execute it. Often times, even their best engineers cant figure out our machines. Several colleagues of mine were often sent to China for consulting work when their own engineers were stumped.
China, in its present political state, can only become temporarily first if the free world rots...
20
posted on
08/21/2012 3:22:44 PM PDT
by
varyouga
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