Posted on 03/15/2012 3:14:59 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The cloud could suffer the same kind of collapses that plague the financial system, according to an analysis of the unrecognised risks of cloud computing.
The cloud is essentially a metaphor for a network of computers in which computational tasks and resources can be shared.
The big idea here is that users simply rent the computing power, the storage or an application for as long as they need it without having to invest in the infrastructure behind it.
That makes computing cheaper, easier and more efficient.
There are well known problems of course. The most obvious relates to guaranteeing the security of data when it is stored on computers that that a user does not own and that many others can also access. But various solutions have emerged such as encrypting data before it is sent to the cloud. For that reason, the migration to the cloud is proceeding at full speed in many places.
That may be folly. Today, Bryan Ford at Yale University in New Haven says that the full risks of this migration have yet to be properly explored. He points out that complex systems can fail in many unexpected ways and outlines various simple scenarios in which a cloud could come unstuck.
In the worst case scenario, a cloud could experience a full meltdown that could seriously threaten any business that relies on it.
Ford identifies a number of different possibilities. One example involves an application provider who bases its services in the cloud, such as a cloud -based advertising service.
He imagines a simple scenario in which the cloud operator distributes the service between two virtual servers, using a power balancing program to switch the load from one server to the other as conditions demand.
However, the application provider may also have a load balancing program that distributes the customer load.
Now Ford imagines the scenario in which both load balancing programs operate with the same refresh period, say once a minute. When these periods coincide, the control loops start sending the load back and forth between the virtual servers in a positive feedback loop.
"The two controllers each compensate with a stronger action causing a larger swing the next minute," says Ford. Clearly, this is a process that must eventually spiral out of control and crash the system.
Ford is careful to put the risk in context: "This simplistic example might be unlikely to occur in exactly this form on real systems—or might be quickly detected and “fixed” during development and testing—but it suggests a general risk," he says.
In fact, this kind of coupling between an application provider and the infrastructure provider is inevitable, particularly when the cloud provider's system is opaque so that external users cannot see the internal control loop cycles and so avoid them,
"Non-transparent layering structures...may create unexpected and potentially catastrophic failure correlations, reminiscent of financial industry crashes," he says.
But the lack of transparency is only part of the story. A more general risk arises when systems are complex because seemingly unrelated parts can become coupled in unexpected ways.
A growing number of complexity theorists are beginning to recognise this problem. The growing consensus is that bizarre and unpredictable behaviour often emerges in systems made up of "networks of networks".
An obvious example is the flash crashes that now plague many financial markets in which prices plummet dramatically for no apparent reason. Understanding how and why this happens is the focus of much research.
Given that cloud is clearly becoming a network of networks that is rapidly growing in complexity, it's not hard to imagine that the computing equivalent of flash crashes are not just likely but inevitable.
Of course, it would be easy for cloud providers to say that their systems are carefully designed and monitored and entirely risk free in this respect. That would be an understandable knee jerk reaction from a PR department.
But it ought to be a worrying sign for any customer, indicating that the providers simply do not understand the problem, let alone have a solution for it.
Ford concludes with the following: "We should study [these unrecognised risks] before our socioeconomic fabric becomes inextricably dependent on a convenient but potentially unstable computing model."
Clearly, an eminently sensible suggestion.
Ya. I’ve worked in data enters.
I’ve found that when it comes to hosted services, it’s cheaper to build it in house about half the time.
Those were in a private datacenter.
Yes hosting can be more expensive if you already have a datacenter. If you don’t have a datacenter then its usually cheaper.
With the cloud based servers it can be much cheaper. I have go out and have a server built with OS in under 5 minutes. For a low end server running a web app and database it costs me about $25 bucks a month.
Sorry, I have to take offense, I am both a PM and work with cloud products, I don’t do what I am told. I do what I tell them needs to be done to complete the project. And then I make it happen, with integrity and a focus on quality.
Then again, might as well blame the PM. That’s part of our job description whether we are at fault or not. I get paid a lot of money to be a sh*t magnet.
Great price. Now with the project NASA and Rackspace are working on to create open source for the cloud, you will be able to create your own interface into the cloud and configure whatever you want. Will be even cheaper in the future.
Hopefully your customers didn’t lose any data when Amazon had their outage a while back.
“They use local servers for the highly sensitive data”
Why you told me the cloud was secure...
That’s the problem, with the cloud you never know who has been snooping you data. But I get the feeling you really don’t care, its all about $$.
FYI
We need to fight this tooth and nail, because it’s based on Keynesian Infonomics!
Thanks SeekAndFind.
:’)
if you believe that I have a bridge for sale.
believe what? $25/ month? I have the credit card statements so yes I believe it. Of course you can spend more but my needs are modest. Some of my customers spend much more.
Or that you can spend $40,000 on infrastructure? ha, yeah I believe that too.
“Hopefully your customers didn’t lose any data when Amazon had their outage a while back.”
Yeah, because a privately held datacenter has never gone down before, not in the history of mankind. pffft
“Why you told me the cloud was secure...”
Sure it is, its reasonably secure but its not the only answer. Good grief man, you select the model that best meets the requirements.
“That’s the problem, with the cloud you never know who has been snooping you data. But I get the feeling you really don’t care, its all about $$”
Well thanks for your personal attack sport. The fact is the cloud based providers are FAR more secure than the average datacenter. They have gone to great lengths to build and operate their centers properly. They are for more cost effective in many cases than buying your own.
I don’t make any money off hosting or selling computers. I make my money making them more secure.
Wow.
Remind me to never hire you to do my purchasing.
Just one more example that you don’t know what you are talking about.
By the way I’m not purchasing.
I just sold about 38K in Sonic Walls to a local school district here. And that was after I skinnied things down by losing the HA and GSM pieces. So I totally believe your numbers.
We don’t make much on the hardware, obviously although SW treats their VAR base very well IMO. The money is in the billable hours...
Have a great weekend.
Any idiot out there could see where the ‘Cloud’ was going. You trust your data to the cloud, you’ll be cryin’ in the rain down the road.
The major advantage the cloud has to software companies is control over the quality and ongoing health of their installations. Less customer service cost. Higher margins.
You end up paying once you end up having to buy the servers as use picks up. Everyone in the cloud is underbuying server capacity. Cost of electricity is a big deal here - for cooling especially.
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