Posted on 12/27/2011 8:56:50 PM PST by TBBT
The last week and a half has brought little change in the standings for the Iowa Republican caucus: Ron Paul continues to lead Mitt Romney by a modest margin, 24-20. Newt Gingrich is in 3rd at 13% followed by Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.
Paul's strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that's pretty unusual for a Republican in the state. Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul's candidacy looks like it's going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul's winning equation in 2012.
Paul continues to have much more passionate support than Romney. 77% of his voters are firmly committed to him, compared to 71% for Romney. Among voters who say their minds are completely made up Paul's lead expands to 7 points at 28-21. If Paul's lead holds on through next Tuesday it appears he'll have won this on the ground- 26% of voters think he's run the strongest campaign in the state to 18% for Bachmann and 10% for Santorum with just 5% bestowing that designation to Romney. There's also an increasing sense that Paul will indeed win the state- 29% think he'll emerge victorious with 15% picking Romney and no one else in double digits.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
Paul's strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that's pretty unusual for a Republican in the state. Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats.
and...
But Paul's candidacy looks like it's going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul's winning equation in 2012.
Will this Ron Paul constituency actually show up? Are they being over-sampled?
I also find it hard to believe that Romney is going to do that well in Iowa.
But who am I to argue with polls.
Not good news for Not Romney and Not Ronulan fans...
Romney's ticket to success. Keep that Not Romney vote fractured.
Depressing...
Paul supporters I’ve seen are older (over 40) and are dopers and/or habitual conspiracy theorists. Every candidate, including McCain in ‘08, can get college students to be enthusiastic about them, but those kids don’t matter in the long run. No money and no persistence.
Polls showing Paul winning in Iowa are just discrediting themselves.
Let’s hope that you are right...
One interesting Number is when ask who did you caucus for last time Huck, Thompson, and McCain responce numbers match the numbers they got in 2008, but only 17% says they went for Romney last time (He got 25%), Meaning I think there can be a hidden vote there claiming right now they not going to show up that Romney can/need to reawake in the close days....
Buddy Roemer at 2%.
Who!?!??!
I am behind Newt. He’s not the best for me but I don’t see Michelle pulling it off by the time my state has it’s caucus. If it looks like she can pull it off, I’ll support her in my caucus.
No Mittens. No way..
(go ahead.. tell me I am voting for Obama.. And your a sell out for voting for Romney)
If I have this right, Ann Selzer will do one more poll before the caucus. She’s got a reputation for doing the best pre-caucus polling. Will be interesting to see how her findings compare with those of PPP and Ras.
Ex governor of Louisiana. The guy lost out in the primaries to David Duke. Yes, that David Duke.
"Public Policy Polling (PPP) is an American Democratic Party-affiliated polling firm" and "many PPP election polls were commissioned by the liberal website Dailykos."
Wow...I also feel depressed :(
Yes... I would like to believe that polls are full of it. Especially this one...
But - and I hate to say this - betting against them is risky business...
One thing is for certain... They will produce more news cycles in the coming days and it will damage perceptions/momentum for Newt and Not Romney/Ronulans in general.
Some will see these numbers as glimmers of hope for their favorite second tier candidate and will cling tightly to it. The end result will be to keep the Not Romney vote fractured.
Other interesting notes...
This result is almost identical to the last Iowa PPP poll. No real movement... Statistical noise?
Perry doesn’t seem to be benefiting from the money he is pouring into Iowa...
Five candidates relatively tightly bunched in the 20-10% range: Romney, Gingrich, Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum. (I do not count Paul, whose numbers are artificial, or Huntsman, who simply does not connect with voters at all.) Bachmann should be doing better in Iowa. I see her as having the least chance of the five at the nomination. One or both of the Ricks could move up. When we get down to three serious candidates, i.e., when a couple of the lower tier drop out, things will become clearer. Maybe by mid-February we’ll get down to a clear top two, Romney and . . . Perry? If I were placing a bet, I’d say Romney will end up with the nomination.
Public Policy Poll: Paul Leads Iowa With 23 Percent (Dec 19, 2011)
“Ron Paul has taken the lead, but it will be interesting to see if he can turn out his unique base of voters for the caucus,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. “If any of the second-tier candidates see their supporters abandon them in the final two weeks, Mitt Romney is the most likely beneficiary and it could propel him to the win.”Color me skeptical.Gingrich’s Iowa campaign is “rapidly imploding,” PPP’s analysis said.
Of course, if Mr. Debnam et al say it long and loud enough, it may just turn out to be true. ;)
The effort the Paulywastes put into winning the Iowa caucus for Ron Paul just shows how useless “Iowa first” has become.
I think DEMOCRATS are playing in these numbers!!! (I have heard they can be a part of this.)
Hard to take this seriously , since PPP is owned by the DailyKos founder
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