Posted on 12/06/2011 5:10:31 AM PST by Homer_J_Simpson
It is another great example of poor scholarship by Stinnett so I guess we can revisit this as another example why people who are serious about learning more about the war are more careful about the sources they cling to as the truth.
Just to review the 129 messages again:
We can jettison 25 of them right off the bat. Tokyo radio transmissions would not violate radio silence. The order for radio silence in in Yamamoto's Combined Fleet Operational Order No. 1 of November 5th in which it just incorporates Combined Fleet Top Secret Order No. 177 which calls for ships to maintain radio silence during operations. A transmission from Tokyo will not reveal the location of the different fleet locations. It also does not originate for the fleet engaged in operations and therefore does not break Order No. 177. This is a common practice that was also used by the U.S. Navy. These are general broadcast messages that do not require a response from the recipient.
We have 60 messages that he claims originated from Nagumo, but he does nothing to back up this claim. He claims that these messages originate from Nagumo's Secret Message Series (SMS) between November 15th and December 7th. They can't possibly all be SMS messages because there are not 60 messages in the SMS over that time span. On November 16th SMS 820 was sent (National Archives II, RG 457 SRN-115397). By the 19th, when the Kido Butai was still in Japanese waters SMS 840 was issued (National Archive II, RG 457 SRN-115491). Even these first 20 don't violate radio silence orders since they have not commenced operations yet and are still in Japanese home waters. According to "The Pearl Harbor Papers", SMS 844 is a damage report sent by the Kido Butai to Tokyo on December 8th. How are we stuffing these 60 SMS messages in there? I only have room for 3 at most and that's assuming that these are not really accounted for elsewhere.
The same thing goes for the 40 messages from carrier, Carrier Division Commanders, and other ships. Why does he not make a single example out of these ships in the Kido Butai who he alleges broke radio silence? The fleet heading to Pearl Harbor did not have ALL the Japanese carriers in them. He needs to be more specific here for it to mean anything at all, but of course he expects his readers just to swallow this without question. Which some apparently do.
This leaves us with four messages from the Midway Neutralization Unit. Even if his claim of the four messages are true, this unit is not part of the Kido Butai.
His claim of 129 instances of breaking radio silence is pretty weak. Perhaps he should list his sources so someone can look at them directly rather than just saying, it's somewhere in RG 38 and RG 457 and expecting us to just take his word for it. I took the liberty of contacting Stinnett and asked him for his notes on these specific 129 messages, or at least more specific citing on it so I could research it myself. The response I received said I could have them for a price:
"Cost would be $5 each x 129 = total of $645.00 plus shipping. Best regards, Robert Stinnett."
I think I see where his motivations lie and its not scholarship.
Then there's the Japanese radio deception effort which we are finding more on even today. I cant help but wonder how many of these messages that Stinnett is laying claim to were messages sent as part of the deception plan. It would be funny to see that the deception has worked again, 58 years after the fact. But it shouldn't be a shock based on the shotty work Stinnett has done in this book.
And in a related story, Elvis’ clone, broadcasting from his secret UFO base on Saturn’s moon, has revealed Britney Spears’ latest diet.
Can you prove it didn’t happen?
in my view the Japanese radio deception is key. It has been shown that the Japanese went to extraordinary lengths to mimic radio traffic from the fleet to disguise their actual movements. they also went to great lengths to disguise ashore personell including bringing in personell from outlying areas to replace those on ships at sea.
There are other facets to the problem as well. The main one is the volume of traffic. The entire Japanese military is on the move. Even though many units are maintaining radio silence, the shore installations are chattering away. America simply doesn’t have the manpower and expertise to read it all, much less interpret it.
We know the attack is coming. The Brits are pretty sure Hong Kong and Malaya are targets. We’re pretty sure that the Philippines are a target. Beyond that, we’re just not too sure of anything.
Well guys, I’m going away for a few days, hope nothing significant happens while I’m gone.
I heard Rush is taking the day off, too.
Cool map.
I think someone could produce a war strategy browser game based on a map like that.
The Japanese said the army was only sent south to check China/ shouldn’t we believe them??
/sarc
I agree. It looks like the Philippines are going to be bombed and maybe after a few weeks the Japanese will invade. Probably nothing bigger than that.
This is truly fascinating. I don’t post on these threads much, rather I sit back, read, and learn. I must confess that I once was among those who believed Roosevelt knew it was coming.
"...'Cost would be $5 each x 129 = total of $645.00 plus shipping.
Best regards, Robert Stinnett'."
"Pretty weak" is not the same as "totally bogus", and $645 would seem to me one of the lesser costs to someone doing serious research on this subject.
For example, one could not spend serious time studying archives at the University of Maryland, or fly round-trip to Hawaii for that price.
I am still waiting for the day that someone does the kind of thorough & in-depth scholarly analysis the data should require.
We know for certain that US intelligence was looking for the missing Japanese carrier force.
So any radio-intercepts which suggested the carriers' locations would be matters of utmost concern.
And it would not take 129 instances of breaking radio silence to tip off our people -- even a few would tell them where to begin looking.
The real question is not whether all of Stinnett's evidence can stand up to scrutiny, but whether any of it can, and does that then tell us Washington knew more about the coming attack than they would later admit?
You are more than welcome to send him 645 bucks for them, but I will warn you as someone who really does serious research, its overpriced.
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