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WHEN, NOT "IF"
TEA Party Tribune ^ | Saturday, August 20, 2011 | Anthony James

Posted on 08/19/2011 9:56:45 PM PDT by Gargantua

Within the ever shifting landscape of the Republican presidential candidate pool has been a constant that is both the best and the worst kept secret of the 2012 general election cycle. That secret is whether or not Sarah Palin will throw her hat into the ring as a candidate for president this time out. As I have written in my previous pieces, “Revelation: The Arc of the Candidate,” “Sarah Inches Closer,” and “What Really Makes Sarah Special,” I believe her running for president in 2012 is and has for some time been a fait accompli.

Ceteris parabus, fortis fortuit brava

That’s Latin for, “All other things being equal, fortune favors the strong.” Never in the pantheon of American politics has there been quite so unjustly vilified or viciously set-upon a heroine as Sarah Palin. The digs, insults, attacks, and attempts at personal character assassination that this woman and her lovely family have endured since her being named as John McCain’s running mate three years ago transcend, or should I say, sink well below—by an order of magnitude—the vileness heaped upon any other candidate in the rough-and-tumble history of American politics.

Yet there she stands; strong, vibrant even, and smiling, always smiling. Unfazed by the very worst that the immoral, soulless Liberal Left and terrified RINO Right could hurl at her with the all-too-willing aid of a complicit lapdog media. Even absent her amazing record in Alaska as Governor, this remarkable woman is strength personified, a spine of steel with a heart of gold. Sarah Palin is perhaps the most gifted natural-born leader this country has ever known, certainly in the last hundred years.

Which brings us to September 3, 2011 in Indianola Iowa, which will mark the three-year anniversary of her having been chosen by John McCain, and her having spoken at the Republican National Convention that night when America was first riveted by this ever-ascending superstar. Organizers for this September 3rd event have already had to change the venue to the Wells Fargo Arena to try to accommodate the masses who will descend upon the Des Moines area for this once-in-a-lifetime historical event. Good luck. Best estimates so far are that scores, and more likely hundreds of buses of avid Palin supporters from all across America have already made plans to be there, to witness in person the kickoff of next “fundamental transformation” of the United States of America.

Sarah Palin is both brilliant and caring. She is aware of just how passionately her supporters cling to the hope that she will offer herself up in service to set this great nation aright. I don’t believe Sarah has it in her to allow all these people to travel all this distance only to be disappointed. I believe September 3rd is the day that the bright sunshine of hope bursts forth once again across this great land. This, I believe with all my heart, will be the day Sarah Palen announces her candidacy for president in 2012.

When, Not "If."

While there doubtless were extremely valid reasons why she might have chosen not to run this time out, I honestly believe that underneath it all she knew that she could no more avoid this fate than can the sun choose to not rise in the east on any given morning. This great secret about whether she will run has actually been a question all along of when, not if, she will offically announce. And of course therein lies an even greater truth.

When Sarah announces, life as we know it in this country, at least as we have known it for the past nearly three years, changes. Her announcement will be the equivalent of a political earthquake measuring twenty on the one-to-ten Richter scale. Many of the existing Republican candidates will drop out automatically, knowing that their continued candidacy is just a pointless waste of their and our time and money. Others who were planning to announce will start looking for work elsewhere. Sarah’s campaign coffers will explode with donations, probably in the tens of millions, as her millions of ardent supporters across America cut loose with a tidal wave of funding put aside for just this moment of moments.

On a recent call-in radio talk show from the heartland I heard a Sarah supporter telling the DJ that he had already booked a hotel room in the Des Moines area, believing in his heart that this would be the day Sarah would announce her candidacy. He made it clear that this was for him a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to see earthshaking, headline making history being made. Liberal heads from the upper East side of Manhattan to Union Square in San Francisco will explode in unison. Chris Matthews will forever lose his tingle. Republican and Democrat agitprop agents provocateur will begin a fevered scurrying, trying to come up with some new barb or arrow to fling at this Teflon Terror from Wasilla.

I could be wrong, but I’m not. As I state in “Revelation: The Arc of the Candidate,” the White House lies smack dab in the middle of the political path Sarah Palin has been on for the past two decades. This will only come as a surprise to those who really know nothing about her. It will however, come as an historic moment of shock and awe for every living American as we watch the beginning of the rebirth of the greatest nation in the history of all mankind. As we watch our rising star light up the future of our nation for the generations to come, and as we see America set back on her path of Manifest Destiny, to shine as a beacon of prosperity, hope and freedom to all the nations of the world.

When, not if. After all, this is still America.


TOPICS: Chit/Chat
KEYWORDS: announce; candidacy; iowa; palin; palin2012; runsarahrun
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To: agere_contra

“Hell, there are guys who sit round all day in their underpants yelling at the TV who are more Presidential than Obama”

Thank you...I think..


41 posted on 08/20/2011 4:29:10 AM PDT by Gadsden1st
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To: steel_resolve
Ask Mark Levin.

Cheers!

42 posted on 08/20/2011 6:28:59 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: CA Conservative
she has shown an ability to win over the conservative base, but no ability to win over moderate Republicans and independents - two groups she MUST have in order to win the general election.

For decades, conservatives have been told we must "go along to get along" and that we had to compromise our principles so the squishy RINOs could get elected.

Once they had enough votes, they said, THEN we'd see action.

We had all that under Dubya. Didn't get much except a porous open border and the complete devaluation of the GOP brand to the point that Obama -- an unknown, with 1/2 term in the US Senata -- very nearly won in a landslide.

Very nearly, that is, but for Our Lady of The Tundra, She of the Immaculate Convention.

If she loses, she's finished, you say?

If she runs now and WINS, and brings along a considerable Tea Party delegation in Congress with coat-tails, we can break the back of Socialism in the US and roll back all the gains the left has made since the 1960s.

Time for you RINOs and Moderates and Concern Trolls to get in the barrel and swallow.

Cheers!

43 posted on 08/20/2011 6:34:15 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: onyx

>>>a political earthquake measuring twenty on the one-to-ten Richter scale.


44 posted on 08/20/2011 7:01:06 AM PDT by ken21 (ruling class dem + rino progressives -- destroying america for 150 years.)
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To: RayChuang88
"The day Palin announces, she will evoke what both Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher stood for..."

An incredibly apt corrolary. Politically speaking, as well as popularity-wise, Sarah is the daughter of a "marriage" between Reagan and Thatcher, although I firmly believe that in this case especially, the product is far greater than the sum of the two combined parts.

I know what political heresy it appears to even think such a thing, but that is if you only consider what she has accomplished thus far. And even then, she makes a good argument for being their significant betters.

Reagan did what he did in an era of hard-to-deny moment for the USA. We were in an identity crisis and economic tailspin, and The Russian Bear was sabre rattling and creating at least the illusion of being a hugely imminent threat.

Maggie, in her time, was similarly cast as the avenging angel of our Anglo cousins who had their own need for a National heroine. She was perfect.

But the world without England, while a very different and lesser place, would still have hope... as long as there was an America. The world absent America's influence; our leadership, our message of freedom, prosperity, personal worth, and most of all, an ever-present reminder of God's amazing providence... I'm not at all sure that would be a world worth trying to survive.

Sarah Palin's task, and ours (should we decide to accept it), will be to bring back from the brink of socialist subjugation a country which, if restored, gives back to the World a clearly defined râison d'etre, not to mention a pumped, musclebound cousin to back them up should Muhammed, or Ivan, or any other would-be bully decide it's again time to flex their ropey muscles.

That's right. Our job is to save the world. Let's git 'er done.

;^\

45 posted on 08/20/2011 7:16:20 AM PDT by Gargantua ("Palin is announcing on September 3rd in Indianola, Iowa")
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To: Bigtigermike
I had no idea that Hatch's "TEA" opponent was a Romneybot. I'll say this, we have to be extremely careful to vet the living snot out of anybody who steps forward as a candidate bearing the "TEA Party" banner. It would be the easiest thing imagineable to slip a few (or quite a few!) deep-cover moles into that brew, really compromising our effectiveness moving forward.

In fact, we have to assume it will happen and be prepared to deal with it when it does. These are snakes, vermin, scumbags with no morals and barely any souls with whom we are dealing. The most despicable ploy you or I could possibly imagine, they've already discarded as being too milquetoast.

;^\

46 posted on 08/20/2011 7:22:43 AM PDT by Gargantua ("Palin is announcing on September 3rd in Indianola, Iowa")
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To: agere_contra
"Hell, there are guys who sit round all day in their underpants yelling at the TV who are more Presidential than Obama."

A coffee-spitter. Nice! LMAO!!!!!!!!

Get's my vote for FReeper "Quote of the Day."

8^D

47 posted on 08/20/2011 7:25:33 AM PDT by Gargantua ("Palin is announcing on September 3rd in Indianola, Iowa")
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To: MestaMachine
"It really didn’t occur to me that you were in any way trying to have a conversation, let alone move it forward. Hence the reply."

This is what they mean when they say, "If you want to piss off a liberal, tell him the truth."

Outstanding reply. Say no more.

;^\

48 posted on 08/20/2011 7:28:12 AM PDT by Gargantua ("Palin is announcing on September 3rd in Indianola, Iowa")
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To: agere_contra
Sorry, guess I left Skype on by accident.....
49 posted on 08/20/2011 7:29:31 AM PDT by mad_as_he$$ (White Feather owns the field.)
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To: gardencatz
For someone who’s observed politics for 40 years, I’m surprised you don’t remember when Reagan ran.

I do remember Reagan. I remember that Reagan had two terms as the governor of the largest state in the Union before he ran for president. I remember that he lost the first run for the nomination. I remember that Reagan started the 1980 primaries as the front-runner, and I remember that he started the general election almost 20 points ahead of Carter. I remember that Reagan never had the kind of negative personal approval ratings that Palin has had over the past three years. Even most people who didn't want Reagan to be president liked him as a person.

None of those things are true of Palin. Palin also doesn' have the record of decades of writing and talking about conservative principles that Reagan had, nor has she earned all of the political favors that people owed Reagan (though she has been working on it).

The problem is one of numbers. The Dems start with about 40% of the vote. Palin starts with about 20% - the most conservative part of the GOP base. Unless she can get the rest of the GOP and the independents, she has a very hard row to hoe.

50 posted on 08/20/2011 8:42:06 AM PDT by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
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To: Gargantua
"...but no ability to win over moderate Republicans and independents."

It is that demographic where she scores the highest. Put down the psilocyben.

Sarah has an approval rating of 38% and disappoval of 55% among independents. If that is the highest she scores, she is in more trouble than I thought.

51 posted on 08/20/2011 8:53:25 AM PDT by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
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To: agere_contra

As I implied, I fully understand what Sarah’s doing, but as a resident of an area that went for Hitlery 3-1, I wish that someone would strip the bark off this vile woman as well. I know, Sarah is hoping to play upon the simmering anger that her supporters still carry, but any positive talk about Rotten is either stupid or sleight of hand. And I know that Sarah’s a brainiac, so it must be the latter. *Someone* in the GOP had better start ripping Rotten’s abysmal record as SoS, just in case she’s the nominee. Bob


52 posted on 08/20/2011 9:14:17 AM PDT by alstewartfan ("The movie's rolled down to the last reel. It's got an ending you never planned. Harry Chapin)
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To: CA Conservative
I, too am a California conservative, although born here and can remember when CA was one of the most conservative GOP states in the nation. I, too remember RR, I voted for him nine times (5 in primaries).

Am currently a member of our GOP county Central Committee, being elected last year as one of many in SoCal coming from the Tea Parties. FYI, a majority of the county RCC's are now majority Tea Party people, and as such essentially control CAGOP. Sure, that's kind of like having a minority interest in CA politics, but CA still has a large voting voice in the convention.

The CA delegates will vote for Sarah, and that will go a long way toward her nomination. Further, it is my experience that more than 75% of indies, 95% of GOP, and pay attention here: perhaps more than 20% of Dems will vote for the GOP candidate in CA....and probably help tremendously in the down-ballot as well. Can the GOP win CA next year? who knows, but we believe that it'll be a lot closer than any time since Clintoon was elected!

our main focus, however, is getting just a bit more control over the state legislature. We have barely enough to stop fiscal measures in the assembly, and all our people there now the have huevos to do it! CA will return to its century-long conservative roots, it'll just take three cycles or so to get there.

53 posted on 08/20/2011 9:16:18 AM PDT by fantail 1952 (They don't make 'em like Reagan any more. Now it takes a woman to do a mans job!)
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To: CA Conservative; Al B.
Actually, Reagan was tarred the same way as Palin, and considered unelectable and extreme. He was not ahead in the early going, nor was he the front runner ever. He was behind Jimmy Carter by 30-35 points with as little as 6 months before the election.
54 posted on 08/20/2011 9:18:47 AM PDT by Lakeshark (Thank a member of the US armed forces for their sacrifice)
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To: Gargantua

BTW, do you have any idea whose bumper sticker I proudly display on my van? Why it’s one for MILT ROMNEY! Just kidding; it’s Gov. Palin’s, OF COURSE! Who else is there to consider?
This is the first time I’ve been accused of suffering from PDS!! lol Bob


55 posted on 08/20/2011 9:23:48 AM PDT by alstewartfan ("The movie's rolled down to the last reel. It's got an ending you never planned. Harry Chapin)
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To: onyx

56 posted on 08/20/2011 9:33:14 AM PDT by McGruff (a Sarah Palin supporter and proud of it.)
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To: Lakeshark
Actually, Reagan was tarred the same way as Palin, and considered unelectable and extreme. He was not ahead in the early going, nor was he the front runner ever. He was behind Jimmy Carter by 30-35 points with as little as 6 months before the election.

Wrong. I actually looked it up before I posted. Reagan was the frontrunner for the 1980 GOP nomination from the outset. Bush gave him a bit of a run at the outset, but Reagan was the statistical favorite. While polls in 1978 (before the hostage crisis and before the primaries) showed Carter with a big lead over Reagan, right after the GOP Convention Reagan led Carter. The rest of the campaign, the two were close in the polls, with the lead changing hands several times. Just before the debate, Carter had a slight lead.

57 posted on 08/20/2011 9:47:11 AM PDT by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
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To: CA Conservative; Al B.
Show some links please, I have seen the links that showed Reagan 30-35 points behind Carter six months before the election, I think it was Al B. who posted them.

I'm also certain that before New Hampshire, Reagan was out of money and far from the front runner. I also remember Reagan only surpassed Carter after the second debate.

You are presenting a history that never happened.

58 posted on 08/20/2011 9:51:59 AM PDT by Lakeshark (Thank a member of the US armed forces for their sacrifice)
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To: Lakeshark
In April 1979, they were counting Reagan out. He was a distant third in a poll of GOP activists. Craig Shirley wrote about this in his book on the 1980 campaign and U.S. News published a blurb in their 'Whispers' column that the Carter WH was saddened that Reagan was fading because they thought he'd be the easiest to beat.

In Sept. 1979, a CA Field poll had Reagan losing by 30+ points to Ted Kennedy in his own state and barely even with Carter in CA.

In January, 1980, Harris had a poll showing Reagan losing by 34 points to Carter.

In March, 1980, Harris showed that Gerald Ford would beat both Carter and Reagan. That same month Time Mag published a story citing a poll showing Reagan behind by 25 points. I don't have the link handy but it's been cited several times here. I'll find it if necessary.

It is true that polls were close and fluctuating during the general election campaign. 10 days before the election, Reagan was a few points behind and trending down. The debate sealed Carter's fate.

Your recollections are correct.

59 posted on 08/20/2011 10:11:01 AM PDT by Al B. ("Evil is powerless if the good are unafraid." -- Ronald Reagan)
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To: Lakeshark
Show some links please,

Okay, let's start here - April 1979 - Reagan, Carter tied.

"Although he did not formally declare his candidacy until November 1979, Reagan made it clear to his inner circle from the moment of the 1976 convention that he intended to again seek the presidency. He was the choice of rank-and-file Republican voters in public opinion polls although many establishment GOP politicians thought he was too conservative and perhaps too old to win the White House."

"Reagan left the Republican National Convention in mid-July 1980 with a commanding lead over Carter in the polls. The race tightened considerably, however, over the ensuing months, in part because Democrats closed ranks after Carter was renominated in mid-August at the Democratic Convention in New York. Reagan's early stumbles also aided the Carter comeback." American President: A Reference Resource

The truth is that the 1980 election bounced all over the place until after the conventions, and then it settled into a fairly narrow range. However, there were at least some times in the year or so before the convention that Reagan was ahead of Carter - I haven't seen Palin get anywhere close to being ahead of Obama. As a matter of fact, she went from a 24% to 38% approval-disapproval rating in May of 2010 to a 38% to 55% approval-disapproval rating in March of 2011. That means that as people have gone from undecided, they have gone almost 2-1 into the disapproval category - and there are only about 7% still undecided! The RCP average of polls shows her down over 17 points against Obama - the worst of all of the Republican candidates they have polled.

60 posted on 08/20/2011 10:25:57 AM PDT by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
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