Posted on 07/01/2011 6:13:52 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
I recently posted an article suggesting that Mchele Bachmann's candidacy, and its impact on Sarah Palin, is reminiscent of the 1980 candidacy of Phil Crane, which Ronald Reagan considered a threat to his nomination:
Is Michele Bachmann Sarah Palin's Phil Crane?
As I point out in the article linked above, Crane never really thought he had a chance for the nomination, and he was content to have one of the moderates (Baker or Bush) get the nomination in hopes that they would install Crane as the Vice-Presidential nominee. I did not explore some of the reasons why Crane's belief was well founded.
2012 looks to be very similar to 1980. The Eastern Establishment candidate, Mitt Romney, will be matched against the conservative Western former governor, Sarah Palin in roughly the same way that George H.W. Bush faced off against Ronald Reagan. 2012 also involves Michele Bachmann, conservative Congresswoman from the Midwest, whose opposite number in 1980 was Crane, a rock solid conservative Congressman from Illinois. As Crane was poised to damage Reagan, so (it is assumed)will Bachmann siphon votes from Palin. It must be conceded, however, that even with the similarities, no two cycles are precisely the same.
Why, one might ask, did Phil Crane believe that his chances for the nomination were slim? Quite simply, no Congressman, since James A. Garfield in 1880, had ever won the Presidency. Indeed Garfield (who was a dark horse selection on the 30th ballot of a brokered convention) was the LAST Congressman ever nominated by either party. But Michele Bachmann's prospects for the GOP nomination are even bleaker than were Crane's in 1980.
In order to give Bachmann's electoral viability every benefit of the doubt, let's expand the subset to which she belongs (that is: House members) to include members of the United States Senate as well. Sure, Bachmann has never won a state wide race. But just for the sake of argument, let's assume that she is U.S. Senator Bachmann, instead of Congresswoman Bachmann. The GOP has nominated three members of Congress in the last fifty years, all Senators with long tenures, specifically Goldwater, Dole and McCain. There hasn't been a sitting member of Congress--Senator or Congressman--nominated AND elected by the GOP in nearly 100 years, since Senator Warren G. Harding turned the trick in 1920.
The Democrats on the other hand--as the statist party-- have had recourse to Congress (again, only the Senate) more often, and more successfully, than the GOP. In the last 50 years, they have nominated four Senators-- Kennedy, McGovern, Kerry and Obama-- two of whom (Kennedy and Obama) won and only one of whom suffered a landslide defeat (McGovern). The Democrats as the party of Washington, are comfortable nominating candidates from the Congress, and their base responds favorably to them. The GOP, as the anti-Beltway party, is always more formidable with an Executive, whether a Governor, a former Vice President or a Commanding General than with a member of Congress. Indeed the GOP tends to nominate Senators only in years in which the prospects of victory are slim.
In 1964, the country, still reeling from the Kennedy Assassination, wanted stability. As Barry Goldwater himself observed, the country did not want three Presidents in eleven months. Goldwater lost by 20. In 1996, the economy was on the upswing and Clinton looked difficult to beat, especially with Perot planning a third party run. So the GOP could comfortably nominate the ancient Bob Dole, knowing well that the White House that year was beyond reach. Dole was beaten by 10. In 2008, the collapse of the housing market and the economy, war weariness and Bush fatigue presaged an electoral disaster for the GOP. The pre-convention polls had the Democrats comfortably ahead by anywhere from 6 to 15 points. After a brief surge into the lead (fueled by Palin's surprise VP selection and boffo convention speech) the stock market crash drove a stake through Senator John McCain's chances for an upset. In spite of the crash and his Beltway tarnish, however, McCain--aided by Palin-- ran better than any of the other recent GOP Senate nominees, losing by only 7.
Unlike 1964, 1996 and 2008, the GOP in 2012 has a genuine, indeed excellent. shot at victory. It is not going to exacerbate the disastrous formula of those election cycles by nominating a mere Congresswoman whose resume is even thinner than the Senators who went down to crashing defeats. 2012 is a year in which the GOP will nominate a governor to challenge a President, who came from Congress without Executive experience and has been a catastrophe. It will have two governors to choose from...Mitt Romney or Sarah Palin. Those who are inclined to vote for Michele Bachmann should know that they are very likely casting a vote for Mitt Romney. Bachmann cannot generate the political or financial support to defeat Romney, nor can she overcome the visceral reluctance of anti-Washington GOP primary voters to nominate a member of the hated Congress. Her impact, if she has any at all, will be to assist Mitt Romney in securing the nomination by drawing voters away from Palin. Let us remind our confreres, whom Bachmann is trying to lure, that those who do not remember history are doomed to repeat it.
Even you aren't that dense to believe that's actually some kind of point. Yes, as a member of a weak minority in the house, Bachmann failed to single handedly stop Obama care. What a loser. Just like Palin and every other Republican, I guess' huh?
The rest of your post is mindless dribble.
Which is obviously why you were able to pick it apart in such fine detail. The word is "drivel", Chief. Seriously, what's wrong with you?
And your point is what? That what Reagan did is different from what Palin is doing?
Palin has also said that she has the "fire in the belly" to run. It could also be said that Palin has been laying the groundwork.
So what Laxault formed a committee in July. I will remind you that today is only what? July 2nd?
“You, on the other hand, bash through it all”
I don’t bash. I just tell the truth. And you think it’s “bash”. LOL
Yes, wasn't that one statement, from one operative, about a month ago?
Are you aware of the silence since those remarks from Bachmann?
Point? Let things fester much? Something tells me Palin isn't also sitting around grinding her teeth.
It's really not too hard to see where some of this anger about Bachmann is coming from.
You are right. It's coming from a faction on FR that is stone cold nuts.
I would hope that you don't have such a "frightening loyalty" and such an "adoring worship" that would prevent you from seeing that
I don't have loyalty to anybody. I like Bachmann and Palin both, a lot. Pawlenty doesn't get the credit he deserves around here either, in my opinion. With the exception of the RINO faction, you won't here an unkind word from about anybody in the field. But, like any normal person, I am able to spot and point out the unhinged rantings of truly screwy, bordering on delusional, people that continue to obsess over something really, really insignificant that happened some time ago.
Sorry, but if after everything Bachmann has done for the conservative movement, if you sit around hating her because something Ed Rollins said, you are loser, a fool, a cult member, and not really much of a conservative at all.
Do you mean "to win" or "to commit the most gaffes"? I'd say either way it's pretty much a toss-up.
Then again, from someone who equates Palin as "the father" in an Œdipal scenario, what should we expect, eh? You aren't by any chance a cross-gender type of "untwist", are you? Just asking, not judging.
:0|
Unless, of course, he meant "dribble"... as in "drool"... you know, that stuff all over your bib? Keep at it, Pappoose. You'll get it eventually.
;^\
Nope, dribble because you slobber like a knuckle dragging mouth breather when you spit out your mindless support of this back bench blow hard.
Yo, posted my response before seeing yours. These people make my head hurt. Wonder if we were posting to a MB relative or one of those 23 foster children.
Bachmann's campaign manager, interviewed by the Rat infested Politico, perpetuating Rat-like propaganda, about a person who has fought Obama and the Democrats, made about four snide remarks about Palin. Here's what I think is the worse comment.
Rollins said. “People are going to say, ‘I gotta make a choice and go with the intelligent woman who’s every bit as attractive.’”
Sorry, but if after everything Bachmann has done for the conservative movement, if you sit around hating her because something Ed Rollins said, you are loser, a fool, a cult member, and not really much of a conservative at all.
Sorry, but I'm simply pointing out to you why some people have become critical of Bachmann. You can blame these people for now thinking less of Bachmann's character or you can do the conservative thing and identify the person who is most responsible for the problem. That person, with her silence about those remarks, is none other than Bachmann.
I would suggest that you protest as much, and take the problem up with Bachmann and her campaign.
I would also add that there are legitimate things to criticize Bachmann about. Palin is my first choice and Bachmann has now moved to a distant second choice. But I have criticized both. Certainly, only a "cult-like" "worshiper" would complain about folks making valid criticisms about either as we determine who should be our nominee. Do you disagree?
“opening her campaign with an attack against Palin has ruined Bachmann”
Of course I cannot possiblly keep track of everything that each candidates says. However, everything I have read (admittedly not that much) about statements Bachman has said...I have never seen where she denigrates Palin. I have only heard her praise Palin and say she won’t be drawn into a cat fight (my spin).
Can you provide a CLEAR CUT example where she DIRECTLY attacks Palin? I suspect that many see her running as an attack......is THAT what is really bothering you?
I like both of these ladies, and would be happy with either as candidate (I actually like the idea of a Palin/Bachman ticket). Whatever, I suspect extreme supporters of any particular candidate to perceive anything and everything as a slam against their horse. I refuse to lose objectivity and be ANY candidates extreme follower.
Your points are odd. You brought up Oedipus even though you don’t spell the name correctly. The only way to make any kind of analogy to Oedipus’ story the way you presented it is to frame it with Palin in the leader/father position.
Anyway, I understand you are not impressed by Bachmann. I disagree with you. Good luck and let’s see how it goes. I hope we agree that defeating Obama is highest priority.
Here here!
Bachmann opened her campaign with attacks against Governor Palin, rather than play coy, catch up on the news and see if you can find out what those attacks were and how they were delivered.
LOL.
Indy, you've been camped out on Palin threads, critcizing Palin for the past 18 months. Perhaps, instead of saying "hear, hear", you should take some of Minn's advice about unkind words toward one of our good candidates.
No, it wasn’t one statement, and it wasn’t an operative, it was her infamous, freshly hired, highly paid Campaign Strategist, the most careful, handpicked hire of her life. Bachmann has never apologized or fired Rollins, he is still there, as her hand picked, right hand man.
Bachmann made a huge strategic mistake with those attacks, and that is evidenced by the response of the conservatives at freerepublic.
How many months Free Reign have you been camped out on Palin threads trashing everyone else. I bet it is far more than I have been messing with a person who isn’t a candidate and doesn’t seem to want to be. I live in reality, you don’t.
You folks just seem like deluded loons. It is funny to watch it and hard not to post. Lets see, how many trash Bachmann or Cain threads you have refrained from? Hmmn?
When I get the time to waste my time, I might care.
Bachmann has been in legislatures about a decade, which of her conservative bills that she has led through to passage are the ones that we should be most thankful for, and grateful for her great talent as an effective leader outside of being on a stage or on a TV camera?
Just like Palin has been running since 2008.
Lindy, you are one the top offenders on this board trashing Palin for the past 18 months. Few on this board would disagree with that assessment. And it is that behavior that is the antithesis of what Minn posted.
Hear, hear my foot!
Honey, won’t be long before you will be sticking your foot in your mouth.
Go ahead and delude yourself, I won’t stop you.
Nothing you say is out of the usual echo chamber of foolishness, but carry on. It is interesting to watch.
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