Posted on 12/31/2010 4:21:28 PM PST by Swordmaker
An iCal alarm popped up for us today. It said:
Mark Oct. 22 on your calendar. That's the day that Apple's classic 'I'm a Mac. I'm A PC' attack ads are going to cease to be humorous. Oct. 22 is, of course, the formal release date of Windows 7... Here's what I believe will happen: The Windows 7 launch will take those market-share gains Apple has seen over the past several years and make them disappear... Yes, the Mac has had a great run for the past couple of years. Gartner says Apple's share of the U.S. computer market for the third quarter amounted to 8.8 percent, up from 8.6 percent in the year-ago period. My bet is that market share is going to drop below 5 percent by the end of 2010... Windows 7 is a great product and Apple is going to feel the pain from it. — Steven Burke, CRN, October 15, 2009
Let's check in with Gartner:
Whoopsie. Let's hope for Steven's sake that all he bet was his reputation. Not a big loss. And, Steven, Apple's feeling no pain unless it's from the strain of driving dump trucks full of cash to the bank 24/7/365.
Now, granted, while those are the latest numbers, they're not truly "the end of 2010," so we'll check in again in a few weeks when Gartner releases their numbers for calendar 4th quarter.
Of course, nobody sane expects Apple to go from 10.4% to under 5% in three months, but we're certainly not averse to serving crow twice.
Send your New Year's wishes to Steven here: steve.burke@ec.ubm.com
Market share is sometimes simple but I believe in the case of computers and software it’s extraordinarily complex. I think we are in agreement there. It becomes increasingly difficult in this situation because the Android operating system (or iOS) is not “sold.” It comes with a device. In the case of Apple, the correlation between device and OS is extremely simple - they only make one phone with one OS. There are multiple Android operating systems and multiple manufacturers that use the Android OS. This is why the separation of sales from operating systems is of particular interest.
I think automobiles are a good comparison. Here again there is an interesting property - autombile sales are separate from automobile usage. I think the concept of market penetration is more relevant - there are vehicles on the road from automobile manufacturers that no longer exist. The company, obviously, does not get any money. For that matter, Toyota doesn’t get any of my money because I either do my own service or take it to an independent garage. They have me in terms of market penetration, but I am a non-factor in terms of the market until I am willing to buy a new car.
I often wonder about low-end devices (given away for free, for example) and how they factor into this discussion. This is one of the main reasons why usage statistics are of critical importance. As for Apple’s profitability and financial health, I am pretty sure that speaks for itself. I’m not sure Apple even cares about fluctuations in market share as long as their printing presses keep running 24/7. I guess the same goes for any company - as long as they remain profitable, I am not sure market share is of real importance.
Interesting discussion. It’s way more complicated than people think.
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