Swanni's 2011 TV Predictions

Washington, D.C. (December 29, 2010) -- Okay, now that I have confessed that my TV predictions for 2010 resulted in a few strike outs -- and some home runs and extra base hits, I think it's time to issue my forecast for 2011.

(My first prediction is that I will never again write a lead paragraph with so many qualifiers and compound statements as the one that precedes this story; oh, well, just killed that prediction.)

My predictions for 2011, which will be published over the next three days, will cover a number of subjects, from which TV provider will be the 'HD leader' to whether 3D TV makers will stop making 3D sets to whether Net TV streaming videos will surpass the Blu-ray high-def disc.

I will also touch on some merger rumors and how the federal government plans (or doesn't plan) to intervene in some industry squabbles, among other issues.

So, let's get started. Today, I will post my first 10 TV predictions for 2011; and tomorrow and Friday, there will be more. How many more? We'll see -- that damn Northeastern blizzard fogged up my crystal ball a bit.

Prediction #1 -- DIRECTV Will Drop Some HD Channels; And Add Some. In 2007-2008, DIRECTV was all about adding HD channels; dropping them was out of the question. With more Americans buying HDTVs, the satcaster was in a competition with rival Dish Network and others for the title of 'Which TV Provider Offers the Most HD Channels.'

However, the economic slowdown of 2008-2010 has changed everything. Now DIRECTV, like many other companies, is trying to save money where possible and, consequently, is reluctant to pay programmers higher fees to carry their channels. So, in 2011, you'll see DIRECTV drop as many as 5-10 HD channels due to fee fights; however, DIRECTV will likely eventually replace them with HD networks that offer better terms. This will allow DIRECTV to appear that it still cares about boosting the value of its HD lineup.

Prediction #2 -- Comcast Will Become the 'HD Leader' (In some markets.) With its new Xfinity service, Comcast has promised that it will dramatically expand its HD lineup next year. For starters, the cable operator recently boosted its HD channel count in the Philly area to 150. Look for Comcast to offer 150-plus HD channels in more markets in 2011, surpassing DIRECTV, Verizon and Dish in the overall HD channel count. However, in some mid-size and small markets, Comcast will continue to lag behind their rivals in HD channels. The cable operator has been woefully slow in adding HD channels in smaller cities, with some viewers still getting less than 50.

Prediction #3 -- 3D TV Makers Will Slash Prices; Add Bundles The 3D TV industry is backed into a corner. Despite the industry's enormous investment in 3D sets, movie theaters and related equipment, consumers have voted with their dollars that they are not that interested in the new technology. Consequently, 3D TV makers in 2011 will have to all but give the sets away; prices will be slashed by 25-30 percent or more; 2-4, free 3D goggles -- and a free 3D Blu-ray player -- will be packaged as a bundle with 3D sets. The extra inducements will help sales somewhat, but not enough to generate any momentum for the category. Let's face it, 3D = 3DOA. It's just a matter of time before the industry announces the time of death.

Prediction #4 -- 3D Blu-ray Player Sales Will Bomb A recent NPD study found that 15 percent of Blu-ray players sold during Black Friday week were 3D units. The research firm suggested the numbers indicated that consumers may be interested in buying a 3D TV at a later time. Hogwash. Trust me, folks, I guarantee you that many of those 3D Blu-ray buyers believed that they could get 3D on their home (non-3D) TVs by simply connecting them to the 3D Blu-ray player. Sounds crazy? It's not. People are constantly being confused by new technology; if they see a Blu-ray player that says it will playback in 3D, why wouldn't they think it would play 3D at their home -- even if they didn't have a 3D set?

Once consumers realize that 3D Blu-ray players require a 3D set, sales will tank.

Prediction #5 -- DIRECTV Will Launch a Wireless HD DVR DIRECTV is desperate to boost its Video on Demand orders. However, the satcaster's VOD service requires the subscriber's set-top to be connected to the Internet, something few subscribers have done. (The set-top has to be connected directly to the Internet connection, or hooked up to a separate wireless adapter.) DIRECTV has openly discussed offering a free service to come to customers' homes and helping them connect their set-tops to the Net. That's a good idea. But if DIRECTV would simply launch an HD DVR set-top that has a wireless feature, more subscribers would find it easier to make the Internet connection. (Similar wireless features can be found on Blu-ray players.) I think they will do it.

Prediction #6 -- Washington Will Not Get Involved In Carriage Fights In 2010, subscribers of DIRECTV, Dish Network, Cablevision and others lost some of their favorite channels because their providers could not reach new programming pacts with channels' owners. During the fee fights, congressmen and FCC officials expressed their dismay at the impasses and promised to do something about in the future. Well, don't hold your breath, folks. Politicians are politicians. They love to talk an issue to death, but they won't act unless the public demand is so overwhelming that they are forced to (or they have received a considerable amount of PAC contributions.) So long as the carriage fights are isolate and spread out -- one every two months or so -- it will be easy for the pols to ignore the battles.

Prediction #7 -- Sales of Net TV Video Players Will Boom One of biggest stories of 2010 was the emergence of the Net TV player (Blu-ray, Roku, Apple TV, etc.). The unit will stream videos from the Net directly to your TV, removing the need to make that trip to your neighborhood video store.

While the media has over-hyped Net TV sales, they did improve this year and I predict they will do even better in 2011. The reason: Many consumers are interested in watching streaming services such as Netflix on their TVs, but until now, they have been intimidated by the technical requirements to do so. In 2011, however, I think more people will make a special effort to get their TVs connected to the Net, whether it's via a Net TV player or a Net-enabled TV. (This is not to say that millions and millions of people will do it; contrary to what Silicon Valley thinks, this is not a tech-savvy nation. People are still intimidated by technology.) But the added convenience (and entertainment) provided by Net TV players will compel more people to check it out.

Prediction #8 -- Sales of Blu-ray Players Will Boom, Too Recent studies show that more than 20 million U.S. homes now have at least one Blu-ray player. HDTV owners have come to realize that the Blu-ray high-def disc offers the best picture on the market, bar none. But in 2011, consumers will also be attracted to Blu-ray players that offer video and music streaming from services such as Netflix, Vudu and Pandora. This additional feature will solidify the Blu-ray player as the logical replacement to the DVD player in America.

Prediction #9 -- Plasma HDTV Sales Will Keep Rising, Threaten LCD The LCD has been tops in overall set sales for a few years now, easily defeating rival Plasma. However, in 2010, we started to see the gap narrow as more people came to realize that Plasma's picture is (generally) better than the LCD picture. Additionally, Plasma makers lowered their prices, making the set even more attractive to recession-weary shoppers. Look for Plasma's momentum to continue in 2011 -- and the model may even start to threaten LCD as the number one TV category.

Prediction #10 -- TiVo and Dish Network Will Get Married, Finally The two companies have been battling over a DVR patent dispute now for more than four years. TiVo, which claims Dish has violated its patent, has won the lion's share of court verdicts, but Dish has been able to keep the case alive by appealing and appealing. In 2011, I predict the battle will finally come to an end with Dish agreeing to buy TiVo and installing its software in future Dish set-tops.

(**NOTE: Parts 2 and 3 to be added as they become available later this week-LVD)

Part 2: Swanni’s 2011 TV Predictions
http://www.tvpredictions.com/parttwopredict122910.htm

Washington, D.C. (December 30, 2010) — Okay, now that I have confessed that my TV predictions for 2010 resulted in a few strike outs — and some home runs and extra base hits, I think it’s time to issue my forecast for 2011.

(See part one of Swanni’s 2011 TV Predictions.)

My predictions for 2011 will cover a number of subjects, from which TV provider will be the ‘HD leader’ to whether 3D TV makers will stop making 3D sets to whether Net TV streaming videos will surpass the Blu-ray high-def disc.

I will also touch on some merger rumors and how the federal government plans (or doesn’t plan) to intervene in some industry squabbles, among other issues.

Yesterday, I published my first 10 predictions — and I want to thank everyone who has already written me to express their support of — or disagreement with — my forecasts. To the latter crowd, that’s okay; it’s all in the game.

So now, here are 7 more Swanni predictions for 2011:

Prediction #11 — TV Makers Will Switch Focus From 3D TVs to Net TVs
In the first part of 2010, if you listened to CE companies, you would have thought that the 3D TV was going to be the next big thing. However, with the disappointing sales numbers, TV makers are rethinking their strategies and deciding where to invest their 2011 dollars. While they won’t abandon 3D entirely — not yet anyway — I predict that you will see electronic companies and CE retailers putting greater emphasis on TVs that can connect to the Internet.

However, a note of caution to the industry: Be sure to offer consumers a quick and easy way to connect those TVs to the Net. If the average consumer is left to his own devices, the whole concept could get stuck in the gate in 2011. TV makers need to bundle these sets with home networking packages sold at retail Even better, the sets could be wireless, which would make it easier for consumers to make the connections.

Some might argue that some Net TVs will also come with 3D capability; that might be true, but don’t expect TV makers to promote that little fact as 2011 comes to a close. 3D is going to become a dirty word in the halls of CE companies — and the studios as well.

Prediction #12 — More Mergers & Acquisitions
I predict that the U.S. economy will improve slightly in 2011, which will encourage more companies to seek partners and/or acquisitions. Several industry firms have been sitting on their cash reserves over the last few years, waiting to see if the economy will stabilize or even get better. Well, it’s about to get a little better. Consequently, you’ll see some major companies such as AT&T, News Corp., DIRECTV and perhaps even Apple look to buy some new TV tech firms, particularly in the video streaming category.

Prediction #13 — Comcast/NBC Will Flex Its Muscles Early and Often
In early 2011, the federal government is expected to approve the merger of cable giant Comcast and NBC Universal. Despite promises that it will play fair, expect Comcast/NBC to squeeze TV providers to carry all their channels — at premium prices — and squeeze video streaming companies such as Netflix to play by their rules. Of course, this will fly in the spirit of the conditions the federal government is expected to impose on the merger. But that’s tough. So long as Comcast/NBC doesn’t actually break the rules, it will do whatever it has to do to achieve dominance in both the TV and Internet fields. That’s what this merger is all about, folks. Don’t kid yourself. What did you think it was about? Getting the country to be more ‘green’? Did you really believe that PR nonsense from NBC? Hell no, this merger is about putting more greenbacks in the corporate coffers.

Prediction #14 — ‘Premium VOD’ Will Bomb
Time Warner and some studios are excited about their plans for ‘Premium VOD’ in 2011. The concept: charge home viewers up to $30 to watch a new movie when it’s still available in the movie theater. Some studio executives are hopeful that Premium VOD will do what 3D obviously has not — generate more revenue. But they will be wrong again. Even with a slightly improving economy, few consumers will shell out $30 to watch a new movie at home.

I realize that if you watch the film at home with your entire family — rather than everyone going to the theater — you could actually save money. But consumers won’t see it that way; they’ll just see this huge price tag on their screen and revolt. The idea of paying $30 for one PPV movie will just not sit well with folks. It will feel like the studios are gouging.

If the studios want to make more money, they should just make better movies instead of investing in every gimmick that comes along.

Prediction #15 — Sales of Smaller-Screen HDTVs Will Keep Rising
Recession-weary shoppers this year downscaled their TV purchases, bringing home more 32-inch and 37-inch sets. Well, even with the economy improving, I think you’ll see that trend continue in 2011. Many HDTV owners are looking to buy a set for the spare bedroom or kids’ room and the smaller-screen, less-expensive model makes a lot of sense.

Prediction #16 — Most New Blu-ray Movies Will Fall Under $20
New Blu-ray movie releases are still too pricey for many people; some discs retail for more than $30. However, with an increase in video streaming, there will be greater pressure on the studios to lower costs to keep Blu-ray sales competitive. Also, it’s getting easier and cheaper to produce mass quantities of Blu-ray discs, which will help the studios keep prices down.

Prediction #17 — Nintendo Goes HD With the Wii
With Microsoft (XBox) and Sony (Play Station 3) scoring with their new motion gaming features, Nintendo could soon lose market share unless it finally enters the 21st Century with an HD edition of the Wii. I think you’ll see it in 2011.

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