Thanks, LVD
PS: new ping list members are always welcome!
No way will Dish buy Tivo. Tivo is already exclusive to DIRECTV, and DIRECTV will not allow that merger to happen without a fight.
Part 2: Swanni’s 2011 TV Predictions
http://www.tvpredictions.com/parttwopredict122910.htm
Washington, D.C. (December 30, 2010) — Okay, now that I have confessed that my TV predictions for 2010 resulted in a few strike outs — and some home runs and extra base hits, I think it’s time to issue my forecast for 2011.
(See part one of Swanni’s 2011 TV Predictions.)
My predictions for 2011 will cover a number of subjects, from which TV provider will be the ‘HD leader’ to whether 3D TV makers will stop making 3D sets to whether Net TV streaming videos will surpass the Blu-ray high-def disc.
I will also touch on some merger rumors and how the federal government plans (or doesn’t plan) to intervene in some industry squabbles, among other issues.
Yesterday, I published my first 10 predictions — and I want to thank everyone who has already written me to express their support of — or disagreement with — my forecasts. To the latter crowd, that’s okay; it’s all in the game.
So now, here are 7 more Swanni predictions for 2011:
Prediction #11 — TV Makers Will Switch Focus From 3D TVs to Net TVs
In the first part of 2010, if you listened to CE companies, you would have thought that the 3D TV was going to be the next big thing. However, with the disappointing sales numbers, TV makers are rethinking their strategies and deciding where to invest their 2011 dollars. While they won’t abandon 3D entirely — not yet anyway — I predict that you will see electronic companies and CE retailers putting greater emphasis on TVs that can connect to the Internet.
However, a note of caution to the industry: Be sure to offer consumers a quick and easy way to connect those TVs to the Net. If the average consumer is left to his own devices, the whole concept could get stuck in the gate in 2011. TV makers need to bundle these sets with home networking packages sold at retail Even better, the sets could be wireless, which would make it easier for consumers to make the connections.
Some might argue that some Net TVs will also come with 3D capability; that might be true, but don’t expect TV makers to promote that little fact as 2011 comes to a close. 3D is going to become a dirty word in the halls of CE companies — and the studios as well.
Prediction #12 — More Mergers & Acquisitions
I predict that the U.S. economy will improve slightly in 2011, which will encourage more companies to seek partners and/or acquisitions. Several industry firms have been sitting on their cash reserves over the last few years, waiting to see if the economy will stabilize or even get better. Well, it’s about to get a little better. Consequently, you’ll see some major companies such as AT&T, News Corp., DIRECTV and perhaps even Apple look to buy some new TV tech firms, particularly in the video streaming category.
Prediction #13 — Comcast/NBC Will Flex Its Muscles Early and Often
In early 2011, the federal government is expected to approve the merger of cable giant Comcast and NBC Universal. Despite promises that it will play fair, expect Comcast/NBC to squeeze TV providers to carry all their channels — at premium prices — and squeeze video streaming companies such as Netflix to play by their rules. Of course, this will fly in the spirit of the conditions the federal government is expected to impose on the merger. But that’s tough. So long as Comcast/NBC doesn’t actually break the rules, it will do whatever it has to do to achieve dominance in both the TV and Internet fields. That’s what this merger is all about, folks. Don’t kid yourself. What did you think it was about? Getting the country to be more ‘green’? Did you really believe that PR nonsense from NBC? Hell no, this merger is about putting more greenbacks in the corporate coffers.
Prediction #14 — ‘Premium VOD’ Will Bomb
Time Warner and some studios are excited about their plans for ‘Premium VOD’ in 2011. The concept: charge home viewers up to $30 to watch a new movie when it’s still available in the movie theater. Some studio executives are hopeful that Premium VOD will do what 3D obviously has not — generate more revenue. But they will be wrong again. Even with a slightly improving economy, few consumers will shell out $30 to watch a new movie at home.
I realize that if you watch the film at home with your entire family — rather than everyone going to the theater — you could actually save money. But consumers won’t see it that way; they’ll just see this huge price tag on their screen and revolt. The idea of paying $30 for one PPV movie will just not sit well with folks. It will feel like the studios are gouging.
If the studios want to make more money, they should just make better movies instead of investing in every gimmick that comes along.
Prediction #15 — Sales of Smaller-Screen HDTVs Will Keep Rising
Recession-weary shoppers this year downscaled their TV purchases, bringing home more 32-inch and 37-inch sets. Well, even with the economy improving, I think you’ll see that trend continue in 2011. Many HDTV owners are looking to buy a set for the spare bedroom or kids’ room and the smaller-screen, less-expensive model makes a lot of sense.
Prediction #16 — Most New Blu-ray Movies Will Fall Under $20
New Blu-ray movie releases are still too pricey for many people; some discs retail for more than $30. However, with an increase in video streaming, there will be greater pressure on the studios to lower costs to keep Blu-ray sales competitive. Also, it’s getting easier and cheaper to produce mass quantities of Blu-ray discs, which will help the studios keep prices down.
Prediction #17 — Nintendo Goes HD With the Wii
With Microsoft (XBox) and Sony (Play Station 3) scoring with their new motion gaming features, Nintendo could soon lose market share unless it finally enters the 21st Century with an HD edition of the Wii. I think you’ll see it in 2011.
The latest buzz I have been hearing about will be the 21 by 9 ultra widescreen tvs instead of 16 by 9.