Beam me to Planet Gore !
Posted on 08/15/2010 11:10:08 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Hee hee! And Mann will prolly still stand behind his stupid hockey stick! Lol!
And I may be mistaken, but they are still ignoring the heat island affect and changing environment around many of our surface temperature reading stations. Or how many in colder climates have gone off line.
Man-made global warming is a HOAX?!
Bu, bu, but it's HOT today!
Oh,.... it's summer and liberals lie..nevermind!
Re: predictions of Global Warming....The models are wrong (but only by 400%)
I was looking at the temperature predictors in my yard, Oak, Birch, Elm, and Maple. The leaves are turning on the Birch and Elm, getting lighter on the rest. Going to be a cold one.
Going thru the comments...found this:
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Aldi says:
“Our backcasting methods, which track quite closely the methods applied most recently in Mann (2008) to the same data, are unable to catch the sharp run up in temperatures recorded in the 1990s, even in-sample.”
Hide the decline? The recorded data has been *massaged*, most climate scientists are riding the gravy train(engaged in fraud).
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Now comparing the first graph ....of Mann...notice that the LEFT hand side is somewhat level.....
Now look at the second Graph...and the LEFT hand side starts at a much higher level...and declines to the right before the uptick....
The statisticians probably worked long and hard on that one ~ two minutes anyway ~ and snorted.
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Jason says:
Nick said:
“But they give a backcast anyway?”
They give a backcast which shows that the temperature a thousand years ago could have been much warmer or much cooler than the present day. This is perfectly consistent with their deep reservations about the predictive ability of the proxy data.
Its worth noting that their Bayesian reconstruction calculates an 80% probability that the most recent decade is the warmest in the past 1000 years. That is not exactly a complete repudiation of the hockey stick. Then again, they didn’t even try to address the data quality issues in Mann ’08. Thir reconstruction includes the tree rings and Tiljander.
I would be interested to see what happens when that data is removed.
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Matt Hardy says:
“Furthermore, it implies that up to half of the already short instrumental record is corrupted by anthropogenic factors, thus undermining paleoclimatology as a statistical enterprise.”
OUCH!
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Wind Rider says:
Best line of the excerpts, it bears repeating.
Climate scientists have greatly underestimated the uncertainty of proxy based reconstructions and hence have been overconfident in their models.
i.e. they’ve done it wrong, and then oversold it.
Bravo.
Uh oh! “ a bayesian backcast method.”????
I’m clueless! Can someone explain?
The consensus of scientists who make money on global warming all agree that global warming is real. The debate is over. Move along now. There is nothing to see.
That one was really slick ~ someone will have to ‘splain that one to Dr. Mann ~ s l o w l y !
This forced them to select new samples from trees living at the bottom of "the hill" (a totally different micro climate).
Mann and company presented these tree rings as coming from the same place ~
The "historic chain of custody technique" applied to the Bayesian "backcast" reconstruction demonstrates the tree ring samples were NOT from the same place.
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Bayesian inference is statistical inference in which evidence or observations are used to update or to newly infer the probability that a hypothesis may be true. The name "Bayesian" comes from the use of Bayes' theorem in the updating process. Bayes' theorem was introduced by Reverend Thomas Bayes.[1]
Thanks,...another revelation.
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