Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Are We Heading for a Decade of 1970s-Style Stagflation?
OilPrice.com ^ | 07/04/2010 | Charles Hugh Smith

Posted on 04/07/2010 11:32:11 AM PDT by bananaman22

Four key factors in the 1970s were very different from present conditions, and that argues against 1970s-style stagflation as a model for 2010-2020.

Sometimes history rhymes--but only for the first line. On the surface, there are reasons to anticipate a 1970s-style stagflation in the decade ahead: a stagnating economy beset by rising inflation.

Four fundamental factors that profoundly influenced the economy in the 1970-1980 period are not present today. As a result, we must be careful not to expect history to rhyme stanza after stanza.

1. Demographics: the Baby Boom came of age and started households en masse. Baby Boomers bought houses, cars, furniture, etc. for their new households, and started businesses which created even more demand.

In other words, the demographic macro-environment was one of strongly rising demand for goods, services and credit. Housing leaped not just in response to inflation but in response to strong organic demand from 78 million Baby Boomers. Full article at: Stagflation

(Excerpt) Read more at oilprice.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: babyboomers; deflation; economycredit

1 posted on 04/07/2010 11:32:12 AM PDT by bananaman22
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: bananaman22

That or just stagnation.


2 posted on 04/07/2010 11:34:48 AM PDT by Brilliant
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bananaman22

Oh it rhymes, all right..this guy is just looking in the wrong places.

We’re entering a Crisis. The 60s were an Awakening. The pattern is a saeculum, not a verse, and it’s 80-100 years long. We’re due for some dark days ahead, but a new beginning is on the horizon.

http://www.fourthturning.com/


3 posted on 04/07/2010 11:35:14 AM PDT by bigbob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bananaman22

Naw, the Obama regime is just busily building it’s permanet underclass to vote Democrat for life.

Obama’s regime goal is the same as that Fascists FDR regime’s goal was.

PERMANENT UNDERCLASS, who votes for their freebies each election. Pathetic.


4 posted on 04/07/2010 11:36:01 AM PDT by Tarpon ( ...Rude crude socialist Obama depends on ignorance to force his will on people)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bananaman22

No. We are headed for 1930s style Great Depression if these policies aren’t reversed pronto.


5 posted on 04/07/2010 11:37:38 AM PDT by Gen. Burkhalter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bananaman22

“we must be careful not to expect history to rhyme stanza after stanza.”

Good point, but “tax and spend” has been a pretty reliable predictor of Democrat behavior for decades. Of course, now it’s switched slightly to “spend and tax” but the basic behavior/policy prescriptions still are remarkably consistent.

Imagine someone had been launched into outer space in 1969 and was just returned to earth. If told that some political party had run up trillions in deficits and enacted health care reform on a pure party-line vote, do you think that astronaut would be stumped if asked which party he thought was responsible?


6 posted on 04/07/2010 11:39:29 AM PDT by DrC
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bananaman22

Obamalaise


7 posted on 04/07/2010 11:43:38 AM PDT by a fool in paradise (VP Biden on Obamacare's passage: "This is a big f-ing deal". grumpygresh: "Repeal the f-ing deal")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Tarpon

Yep, they are constructing the New Proletariat while they dismantle the old bourgeoisie. It’s clearly the case.


8 posted on 04/07/2010 11:51:07 AM PDT by Canedawg (I'm not diggin' this tyranny thing.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: bananaman22
BO/BS is seeking a total collapse of our capitalistic economy to replace it with socialism. Cloward-Piven Strategy
9 posted on 04/07/2010 11:57:28 AM PDT by Man50D (Fair Tax, you earn it, you keep it! www.FairTaxNation.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bananaman22
Just as long as we don't go back to disco and THIS:


10 posted on 04/07/2010 12:01:00 PM PDT by OCCASparky (Obama--Playing a West Wing fantasy in a '24' world.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: a fool in paradise

.
All over us.


11 posted on 04/07/2010 12:19:40 PM PDT by Touch Not the Cat (Where is the light? Wonder if it's weeping somewhere...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: bananaman22

If we have to, can we get something similar to those old tv shows and music (the stuff that wasn’t disco was pretty good.)?


12 posted on 04/07/2010 12:21:13 PM PDT by HungarianGypsy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OCCASparky

I was there the first time.


13 posted on 04/07/2010 12:54:34 PM PDT by AceMineral (Do you go to women? Don't forget your whip.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: bananaman22

My money is on hyper-stagflation.......the 1970’s on steroids. Bernanke has promised many times he will never allow another deflationary depression, but as history shows us in other examples he will end up overplaying his hand and will create so much new money that once it begins to cause inflation, it will likely get out of his control quickly like wildfire when everyone realizes that the dollars they are holding are worthless.


14 posted on 04/07/2010 1:01:09 PM PDT by OB1kNOb (When injustice becomes law, resistance becomes duty. - Thomas Jefferson)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: OCCASparky
or THIS :-)


15 posted on 04/07/2010 2:02:05 PM PDT by Oatka ("A society of sheep must in time beget a government of wolves." –Bertrand de Jouvenel)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson