Renewed Battle for the Falkland Islands Suits the Embattled British, Argentine Leaders, and Others

The artificially-engendered revival of the dispute, which began in February 2010 between Argentina and the United Kingdom over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands in the South Atlantic, has been portrayed as a posturing by embattled Argentine Pres. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, taking advantage of both the start of exploratory oil and gas drilling by British company Desire Petroleum in the Falklands waters, and the talks by Latin American and Caribbean leaders of the Rio Group in the Mexican resort of Playa del Carmen, beginning on February 22, 2010. But the crisis may well play into the political posturing of equally embattled United Kingdom Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who faces a general election by June 2010 at the latest.

Britain’s presently governing Labour Party is as conscious — almost superstitiously so — of the fact that the 1982 Falklands War with Argentina revived the flagging fortunes of incumbent Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, just as the US Democratic Party is fixated on the belief that Democratic Pres. Lyndon Johnson failed to win a second term in office because of being embroiled in the Vietnam War. As a result, the British Labour Party is unlikely to attempt to quell the dispute in the short term between the UK and Argentina, even though it plays strongly into the hands of Pres. Fernández de Kirchner. Full article at: Falkland Islands Conflict

I hope the Brits are ready to defend it. Do they have anti-aircraft batteries and naval assets down there?

There have been many changes since the Falkland War, and none of them bode well for the Britons inhabiting the islands. Not only are the British unwilling (largely) to defend the claim again, due to the factor of their being heavily intertwined in the EU, they may well be politically unable to do so, even if they were willing. I suspect, that in the end, Britain will cede the islands to Argentina...

the infowarrior

I very much doubt England will give up the Falkland Islands - they actually have more right over the land than Argentina. This is all Geopolitical horesplay - but if it did come down to it - Britain are in a position to defend the Islands - Argentina’s ragtag army would be completely overwhelmed. Professional fighting force vs other - would be very quick, brutal and over. Hopefully it won’t come to that

This is not going to be a replay of 25 years ago. While it is certainly true that the military capabilities of Britain vs Argentina haven't changed much in the last quarter century, the political landscape certainly has. There are several factors which I feel you are not taking into consideration here, which I have, when I made my assessment.

Firstly, the British Treasury is in no better shape than our own, awash in a sea of red ink. While this was true to some extent even back then, it is doubly more so now. Secondly, PM Thatcher did not have nearly as large, and certainly nowhere near as restive, a minority population of non-native Britons as exists today. The more radical elements of this population could certainly stymie any proposed military action should they choose to do so, and I have ample reason to believe they would. That's just "the home front", now, let's move on.

Twenty five + years ago, the EU was more or less still just a pipe dream. Today, it's more of a reality. The B.O.O.B.s (Beaureaucratic Officials Of Brussels) would certainly be out in full force to forestall any unilateral action by Britain, in favor of a negotiated, permanent settlement. The B.O.O.B.s have no loyalty to the British inhabitants of the islands, and would sacrifice them in a heartbeat, to ensure the primacy of the B.O.O.B.s and the EU as a whole.

Now, when Britain defended the islands then, they had to cross the Atlantic to do so, a very long supply chain. They were able to do so because of the relationship between the administrations of PM Thatcher, and President Reagan. While to US officially took no side in the dispute, the hands-off approach actually ensured that Britain would prevail. Would *you* count on an Obama Administration to do the same? I wouldn't!

I look carefully at all these factors, and come to the conclusion that Britain will be pressured to the bargaining table by both Brussels, *and* Washington, to cede the islands to Argentina, with both of those polities "sweetening the pot" to assuage British honor. I'm reasonably certain that the Argentines also see all this, which is why they are pressing now...

the infowarrior

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