Posted on 01/18/2010 3:32:47 PM PST by GOP_Resurrected
I missed Scott Rasmussen's appearance on Hannity this afternoon, but another poster said his prediction of a Brown win was "reluctantly and not enthusiastically."
Two weeks ago, Rasmussen Reports released a poll showing that Republican challenger Scott Brown had closed the gap in Massachusetts to single digits. Prior to that release, “The overwhelming conventional wisdom in both parties… was that Martha Coakley was a lock,” writes The Politico’s Ben Smith, adding, “It's hard to recall a single poll changing the mood of a race quite that dramatically.”
A week later, the shock continued as our final poll in the race showed that Brown had pulled to within two points of Coakley. In fact, among those who were certain they would vote, Brown was up by two.
At that time, Brown was leading among political moderates, middle-income voters and those over 40. He enjoyed a dominant lead among unaffiliated voters and even picked up a modest number of Democrats. By every measure, Brown supporters were more engaged in the race and more excited about their candidate. Nothing that we have seen over the past week appears to have changed those dynamics.
The health care issue is front and center as the reason Brown has gained traction. While the plan enjoys more support in Massachusetts than it does nationwide, those with strong opinions on the subject are more likely to oppose the bill than support it. Perhaps the single most shocking thing about the Massachusetts race is the fact that a Republican is running against the president’s health care effort and winning in the Kennedys' home state.
Brown’s position on health care has been supplemented by his positions on national security issues, including the Christmas Day terrorist bomber. Massachusetts voters overwhelmingly want the man who tried to blow up a U.S. airliner tried in a military setting as a terrorist.
Over the past week, the battle in Massachusetts has been fully engaged by both parties. Brown raised over a million dollars in a single day last week and has reportedly continued to raise large amounts of money every day. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, labor unions and other Democratic organizations are pouring money into the race. A handful of polls came out over the weekend suggesting that Brown was in the lead, and news reports indicate that both campaigns' internal polls are showing the same thing.
Since the last Rasmussen Reports poll, the Coakley campaign has had to endure a number of missteps ranging from the candidate’s debate performance and comments about Afghanistan to her mistaken assertion that Boston Red Sox hero Curt Schilling was a Yankees' fan.
While those items may have hurt, the Coakley team got some good news as well. First, the heightened interest in the race may serve to increase turnout among Democrats who have been fairly apathetic about their candidate and the campaign. Second, President Obama himself showed up in Boston to rally the base on Sunday.
Where does that leave us? On Intrade, Brown begins Monday morning as the slight favorite in the race. However, nobody really knows who will win because it all comes down to turnout. Clearly, Brown has the more enthusiastic support and has run a better campaign. If turnout remains low, he is likely to win. That’s why the president went to Boston. If his appearance boosts turnout among Democrats, the Democrat will win.
That’s a long way around saying that we’re right back where we were a week ago - at the time of the last Rasmussen Reports poll. Brown is leading slightly among those certain to vote, and Coakley will do better if more Democrats show up.
He's been so historically accurate, his reticence and CYA talk on Hannity scares me a bit. Anyone know something I don't?
It’s Massachusetts and the commie ‘RATS are desperate. Anything can happen. The ‘RATS run the state. I think Rasmussen knows that and also knows that what the voters do at the polls won’t have much of a bearing on who wins this one.
Oddly, Zogby, who did NO poll, supposedly picked the dem ( I haven’t seen Hannity yet). What was his factual support for this conclusion, if any? No other final polls backs him up. Are we THAT cynical that the election will be fixed?
he doesn’t want to be blamed for a Brown win.
Anyone who thinks this race is a done deal (i.e. a victory for Brown) hasn’t been paying attention to MA politics over the past 50 years. At a time when Obama is personally popular in MA, and his negatives are going down nationwide, I think Brown should keep his concession speech handy. MA might just be a reach too far.
Pray.
Zogby IS A DEMOCRAT. Thats his reasoning.
One of the two threw in the CYA that there was no “historical voting model” due to this being an off-cycle election.
Your guess is as good as mine. Rasmussen published the following, today:
“nobody really knows who will win because it all comes down to turnout. Clearly, Brown has the more enthusiastic support and has run a better campaign. If turnout remains low, he is likely to win. That’s why the president went to Boston. If his appearance boosts turnout among Democrats, the Democrat will win.
That’s a long way around saying that we’re right back where we were a week ago - at the time of the last Rasmussen Reports poll. Brown is leading slightly among those certain to vote, and Coakley will do better if more Democrats show up. “
Cheers
i am also a little nervous that Repubs are counting chickens before they are hatched.....hopefully the polls are right and Brown will win, but the pressure is on and people still have to vote. anything can happen in a machine state - votes show up out of nowhere, etc. i’m holding my breath.
P.S. - Pray for bad weather. Bad weather typically favors the Republicans when the base is energized.
Cheers
However, I think he's afraid that when the "extra" votes are counted and the win goes to Coakley, people will question why the polls were so wrong, not that huge Democrat voter fraud took place.
Rasmussen doesn't want to be a part of that story.
-PJ
I’m not as confident as most and listening to Rush neither is he. I really hope I’m wrong
I can only guess is that the headline was hacked.
I posted the headline exactly as it was.
It apparently has changed, for whatever reason.
Isn’t Rasmussen a Demoncrat?
Sorry for the redundant quote and link. My coffee buzz wore out about an hour ago.
Cheers
You can’t poll fraud.. and in MA it is a rampant quotient.
He sees it a tossup and that the dems have the better GOTV in MA but still picked Brown. If Brown has a big win he can always say he didn’t see that coming to keep his credibility.
Pray for Scott
Yes, to quote tard Uncle Joe Stalin - “It’s not who votes, but who counts the votes.”
But ALL Brown voters need to show up tomorrow. If they’re going to steal it, make them REALLY have to work for it.
Go to Zogby's site and see just how fair his headlines are. Zogby has always been very fair.
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