The great iPhone death watch

Fortune — BrainstormTech ^ | 12/01/2009 | by Philip Elmer-DeWitt

[Swordmaker]

What critics were saying about Steve Jobs' smartphone in the months before it launched

Three years ago, when it became clear that Apple (AAPL) was about to unveil some kind of mobile phone, critics began to weigh in on its chances of success. AAPLinvestors' Terry Gregory, building on a list of skeptical quotes begun by MacDailyNews, has put together what may be the definitive collection.

A sample:

“We’ve learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone. PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They’re not going to just walk in.” — Palm CEO Ed Colligan, commenting on then-rumored Apple iPhone, 16 Nov 2006

“Apple is slated to come out with a new phone… And it will largely fail." — Michael Kanellos, CNET, 7 December 2006

"The only question remaining is if, when the iPod phone fails, it will take the iPod with it.” — Bill Ray, The Register, 26 December 2006

"Apple will likely have a tough time convincing application vendors to build specialized clients for the iPhone until the volumes are there, and the volumes could be limited by the lack of third-party applications – a Catch 22.” — Jack Gold, J. Gold Associates, 10 January 2007

“The iPhone is nothing more than a luxury bauble that will appeal to a few gadget freaks." — Matthew Lynn, Bloomberg, 15 January 2007

"Five hundred dollars? Fully subsidized, with a plan? It is the most expensive phone in the world and it doesn’t appeal to business customers because it doesn’t have a keyboard which makes it not a very good email machine… So, I, I kinda look at that and I say, well, I like our strategy. I like it a lot.” — Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, 17 January 2007

[Swordmaker]

Epic Prognostication Failures—PING!

Mac Ping!

If you want on or off the Mac Ping List, Freepmail me.

[lmr]

These guys were wrong about the I-phone.

Now, if they could make an I-phone with at least a 100G of storage and portability to any wireless provider without having to perform any unreliable tricks, I would buy one.

[Swordmaker]

Now, if they could make an I-phone with at least a 100G of storage and portability to any wireless provider without having to perform any unreliable tricks, I would buy one.

Rumor has it that there is a dual radio chip coming available in a couple of months that could make the iPhone compatible with both AT&T and Verizon... in one unit. Could be interesting. The storage will happen just at the regular pace of development, although I am not feeling any pinch with my 16GB 3Gs iPhone... but then I didn't feel cramped with my original 8GB, either.

[happinesswithoutpeace]

lolz...all is well bro

[cavador]

Thank god for Blackrain

[be-baw]

A couple of weeks ago I was all set to get an iphone, courtesy of my employer. Went to the local ATT store and was told in order to get an account I needed to either give them my Social Security number or a $500 deposit refundable in a year. For years I've had an ATT LAN account, cell phone account for my wife, and had ATT DSL as my ISP. The bills were always paid on time and I was miffed that that wasn't sufficient credit history to. Soooo, I decided against getting the electronic leash and am now in the process of getting ATT out of my life completely.

Good riddance ATT. I hope you're not too big to fail.

[Spktyr]

All the major cell providers ask for a SSN these days.

[PreciousLiberty]

Don’t forget the Zune - iPod killer “fer sure”. ;-)

The Android phones are good - competition always results in better stuff for everyone.

Let’s hope the government maintains a fairly lassez faire approach to the cell phone marketplace. That way continued improvement is likely.

[be-baw]

Yeah, after a Verizon customer I know told me he needed to cough up his SSN in order to his kids cell phones, I wondered if they all require it now.

Oh well, I guess I won't have to worry about getting cancer from cell phones for a while...

[steve-b]

All the major cell providers ask for a SSN these days.

Yep. It's part of the security-theater nonsense vomited up by the previous administration, not the company's idea.

[MaryFromMichigan]

Fun read!

Enjoyed this comment: “Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone… What Apple risks here is its reputation as a hot company that can do no wrong. If it’s smart it will call the iPhone a ‘reference design’ and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else’s marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures… Otherwise I’d advise people to cover their eyes. You are not going to like what you’ll see.”
John C. Dvorak, 28 March 2007”

[Hacksaw]

I do love my I-phone, and I am a Mac hater. The Iphone is the best purchase I have made in years. Puts the Blackberry Storm to shame.

[Neidermeyer]

All the major cell providers ask for a SSN these days.
*******************************************************
The pay-as-you-go phones don’t. You can still walk into any cell phone store and pay for the phone rather than roll it’s cost into a contract (or provide your own) and get service (sometimes with a small deposit) without supplying a ssn .. 25% of the population where I am are illegal and they don’t go without cell service. You always have the option of not providing a ssn and then paying the “bad credit” deposit.

[robertvance]

I am also a Mac hater but I just purchased an Iphone today after using my brother’s phone for a few days. Incredibly useful especially when on the go.

[Paradox]

I’ll say this, Apple’s superiority in the MP3 and Phone market is really MUCH greater than any perceived superiority in the computer market. For me, changing between Mac and PC’s doesn’t mean much, but going between an Iphone/Ipod to any other phone or MP3 Player, is like having a lobotomy.

[RoadGumby]

Just one more reason not to have one.

[John Leland 1789]

Just bought an iTouch with 32G memory two weeks ago and love it. I needed it for downloadable Chinese-language applications and have found it very easy to use.

Now I wish it had a GPS in it. Ha!

[TXnMA]

"I do love my I-phone, and I am a Mac hater."

Like the article's failed prognosticators, you still don't get it:

The iPhone is a hand-sized Mac COMPUTER

-- with all the power of OS X available to it. (And...it also makes phone calls...)

So -- you do love a Mac -- whether you like to admit it or not!

~~~~~~~~~

TXnMA prognostication: If you gave one of your iPhone's "big brothers" the same honest chance (amount of use) you've given your iPhone -- you would change your line quoted above... '-)

[ReignOfError]

>>>All the major cell providers ask for a SSN these days.

Yep. It's part of the security-theater nonsense vomited up by the previous administration, not the company's idea.

For, e.g., an iPhone, AT&T is coughing up $400 up front. They're extending credit, so they run a credit check. Security doesn't enter into it, nor does the last administration -- Sprint ran my credit when I got my first cell phone in '99.