Posted on 09/28/2009 1:59:25 PM PDT by SES1066
Before the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season kicked off on June 1, forecasters were calling for 12 named storms, with about half developing into hurricanes.
...
Based on the current El Niño conditions, Colorado State University meteorologists William Gray and Phil Klotzbach this week issued an updated hurricane forecast, which calls for 2009 to be a below-average season.
The pair predicts that this season will see just ten named tropical storms in the Atlantic.
Four of those storms are expected to develop into hurricanes, with winds of at least 74 miles (119 kilometers) an hour. Two will become major hurricanes, with winds exceeding 110 miles (177 kilometers) an hour, the meteorologists say.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.nationalgeographic.com ...
That being said, last December their initial prediction for the listed Atlantic Basin Hurricane season (June-November 2009) was for 14 Named Storms (minimum 39 mph winds), 7 Hurricanes (73 mph) and 3 Major Hurricanes (Category 3+) with a 63% chance for one of these majors to make US landfall. Note: This was 6 months ahead and spoken as speculative being based on historical data.
This study has been revised downward in April, June and August and the August prediction was 10 Storms, 4 Hurricanes, 2 Majors and 46% chance of US Landfall. Now, as of September 28th, we have had 6 Storms, 2 Hurricanes (Bill & Fred) both of which having reached briefly major status. The worst damage in the US was from Tropical Storm Claudette which developed suddenly in Appalachicola Bay area of Florida and went NW into Georgia and Alabama as a rainmaker.
I point this out as an example of weather versus climate forecasting. We can still have a whopper hurricane or several whoppers between now and the end of the season in November, but the historic peak is past and everything seems to be still calm.
So, my question to the point is this, if skilled experts with loads of historical data can make statistically significant errors in predicting a mere 6 months out about a geographically confined area, what does that say about the POSSIBILITY that equally skilled experts, predicting for a far longer time period and a far larger geographic area with much less accurate data ...
don’t bring this topic up!!!!
don’t JINX us here in FL!!!!!!!!
That is because Pres. GW Bush isn’t making those hurricanes and driving them into areas with a high negro population. Pres. Bush hates black people. < /sarcasm>
Actually I’m kind of surprised at this prediction considering all the hot air coming out of Washington these days to fuel the hurricanes.
I'm here too, in a costal county yet - have you taken your precautions? When I moved in to my new old house a year ago, the 1st thing I did was new storm-resistant windows and garage and doors. By Murphy's Law, you owe me because by being prepared, all these blow-hards are going elsewhere. Small bills please.
As an aside, William Gray is a “Global Warming (tm)” skeptic.
b
Apparently they are over tearing up the Phillipines. One just dumped record amounts of rain on Manilla and flooded the city and two are coming behind it.
I think the rats’ pinning Katrina on W (WHO DID EVERYTHING IN HIS POWER TO GET BLANK-O AND LANDRIEU TO MOBILIZE AND THEY REFUSED FOR PETTY POLITICAL RAT REASONS) was how they turned the nation on W, that along with Kanye West.
My heart has been broken (politically) ever since.
That’s in the Pacific. In the Atlantic, it’s been a very quiet season.
Or Texas. Ike was quite enough for the next couple decades.
I’m sure the looney-tune “man-made global warming” kool-aide drinkers will come up with a “study” to show that this is a result of “man-made global warming”.
Really! We don’t need to have our lawns watered like Atlanta. The good news is we are one month beyond the peak.
AlGore is keeping all those named storms in his lockbox.
Well the Miami Hurricanes were downgraded to a tropical depression over Blacksburg, Virgnia on Saturday.
since Ike passed directly overhead, I’d hope we’re good for a few years.
I know that and respect him and his team (now headed by Klotzbach). The point remains that science builds theory that must be tested over and over for validity and if there is one falsification, it either must be explained and pass further testing or the theory loses credibility.
Meteorologists and climatologists KNOW that the Earth's atmosphere is just about the most difficult thing in current science to model. Remember the 'Chaos Theory' started with the idea that a butterfly at the right point and time in the Amazon could cause a typhoon half-way around the world. The most powerful computers outside the military are used to try to figure out where a tornado is going next and fails as frequently as not.
Yet these cultists believe with religious fever that they know both the cause and effect and that we need to impoverish generations to keep that deadly effect from our door.
From the deadly 1900 Hurricane to Ike, it was 108 years, so I sincerely hope for you that that time frame for MAJOR and DIRECT hits stays intact. I am making a note to stay out of the area in 2116 and several years around that date, especially in the season!
But, But, But...Wanda was the name for the W hurricane and I love the name Wanda. Didn’t really think they would ever get down to W, but I still love the name Wanda.
Ike was enough for a while, thanks.
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