That being said, last December their initial prediction for the listed Atlantic Basin Hurricane season (June-November 2009) was for 14 Named Storms (minimum 39 mph winds), 7 Hurricanes (73 mph) and 3 Major Hurricanes (Category 3+) with a 63% chance for one of these majors to make US landfall. Note: This was 6 months ahead and spoken as speculative being based on historical data.
This study has been revised downward in April, June and August and the August prediction was 10 Storms, 4 Hurricanes, 2 Majors and 46% chance of US Landfall. Now, as of September 28th, we have had 6 Storms, 2 Hurricanes (Bill & Fred) both of which having reached briefly major status. The worst damage in the US was from Tropical Storm Claudette which developed suddenly in Appalachicola Bay area of Florida and went NW into Georgia and Alabama as a rainmaker.
I point this out as an example of weather versus climate forecasting. We can still have a whopper hurricane or several whoppers between now and the end of the season in November, but the historic peak is past and everything seems to be still calm.
So, my question to the point is this, if skilled experts with loads of historical data can make statistically significant errors in predicting a mere 6 months out about a geographically confined area, what does that say about the POSSIBILITY that equally skilled experts, predicting for a far longer time period and a far larger geographic area with much less accurate data ...
don’t bring this topic up!!!!
don’t JINX us here in FL!!!!!!!!
That is because Pres. GW Bush isn’t making those hurricanes and driving them into areas with a high negro population. Pres. Bush hates black people. < /sarcasm>
Actually I’m kind of surprised at this prediction considering all the hot air coming out of Washington these days to fuel the hurricanes.
As an aside, William Gray is a “Global Warming (tm)” skeptic.
Apparently they are over tearing up the Phillipines. One just dumped record amounts of rain on Manilla and flooded the city and two are coming behind it.
I’m sure the looney-tune “man-made global warming” kool-aide drinkers will come up with a “study” to show that this is a result of “man-made global warming”.
AlGore is keeping all those named storms in his lockbox.
Well the Miami Hurricanes were downgraded to a tropical depression over Blacksburg, Virgnia on Saturday.
But, But, But...Wanda was the name for the W hurricane and I love the name Wanda. Didn’t really think they would ever get down to W, but I still love the name Wanda.
Ike was enough for a while, thanks.
So I guess we are officially in an El Niño now ?