Posted on 09/15/2009 11:31:17 AM PDT by RC one
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday that the worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression was probably over, but the recovery would be slow and it would take time to create new jobs.
"Even though from a technical perspective the recession is very likely over at this point, it's still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time," Bernanke said after giving a speech at a Brookings Institution conference.
In declaring the recession over, Bernanke went slightly beyond the Fed's most recent assessment that the economy was leveling off and that indications on growth had improved.
However, he cautioned that growth next year would probably be not much faster than the economy's so-called long-run potential rate, which meant it would be slow to absorb excess capacity and pare the unemployment rate.
"The general view of most forecasters is that that pace of growth in 2010 will be moderate, less than you might expect given the depth of the recession because of ongoing headwinds," Bernanke said.
He spoke on the one-year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which sparked a global panic that forced the Fed to cut interest rates to almost zero percent.
Economists generally estimate U.S. trend potential growth to be in a range around 2.5 percent.
Bernanke acknowledged that a recovery could turn out to be either stronger or weaker than forecasters expect, but warned of ongoing pain in the labor market under the expected growth rate.
"Of course there are risks on both sides of that forecast -- we could have a stronger recovery, we could have a weaker recovery," he said.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.fidelity.com ...
Sure is. The Depression starts.
Is it time to start complaining that all the new job growth is to low paying wages and that American’s are still getting poorer in this horrible Bush economy?
Oh, wait. That’s right, we are still losing jobs. I guess we will have to wait to complain about how a falling unemployment rate doesn’t mean anything and the economy is still horrible because all the new jobs are crappy jobs.
Business is certainly not dieing off the way it was. Even the mall here is filling up again with businesses.
466,000 Americans lost their jobs in August.
Right, because all those fundamentals that caused the recession are so much better now
“All is well”.
where’s this at? I live in Ohio. Our recession is nowhere near over. Businesses are closing up, not opening up.
I would bet this guy has brown eyes. He is full of crap right up to the Cornea.
Good points. Increased McDonalds and Wal Mart employee numbers aren’t exactly going to fuel a major increase in production. And I mean no offense to anyone who works at either of those places btw.
People are being told to top their credit cards before filing bankruptcy.
I even saw that on FR this morning.
I believe with the exodus of industry over the last 20+ years coupled with the swing to socialism, what we have now, assuming we have hit the bottom may very well be the new norm. Not that different from Europe, except we don’t have 35 hr work weeks and a month off in the Summer.... hehe
Oh, link me! It sound likes something I would have said!
parsy, who may find his soul mate
He's a product of his era, you know? This is what the libs kept telling us to do in 1970.
Informal Fallacy: Wishful Thinking
Types:
Appeal to Consequences, Emotional Appeal
Form:
I want P to be true.
Therefore, P is true.
Commercial Realestate will lead the second half of this recession, from what I know. The commercial investors have been eating their own equity in the form of interest payments while land goes unsold, development is stifled by manufacturing, distribution, warehouse and office vacancies fall or stagnate. There will come a time when the big money runs out and losses will be booked and unloaded. Commercial property values are way down and default in many cases will be a better option than a fire sale. Also, most development is financed by LLC investors that are protected. When they run out of money and the proceeds from a sale will not cover a loan, they will liquidate, fold and walk. The old money out there with staggering lien leveraged assets will see lenders in a second wave of crisis. The unit numbers will not be so high but the dollars will be staggering.
Why haven't we heard more about this? It is bad business for an investor or a proprietor to announce that he is having trouble with investments or that he can't pay his bills. It is the investors that are credited with securing financing from lenders and much of it comes with secured down payments and the credit worthiness of the application participants. They do not want to announce, "Hey, we are just going to give that one to the bank." then turn around and ask, "Look we have all this money. Can we get a loan to purchase and develop this property?" They do all they can to hid their identities as it is for this very reason.
That's the third time I have heard that. Can you post the FR link so I can research it, please?
Thank you.
Has anyone asked Rep. Wilson for his comment on this statement?
“Of course there are risks on both sides of that forecast — we could have a stronger recovery, we could have a weaker recovery,” he said.
How's that for confidence?!
Parsy, you make me laugh!
Let me see if I can find it. It was on one of the threads about the coming economic disaster.
I’ll look around. Pity I have no life and all my FRiends are FReepers, so I’ve been on tons of threads already. DH calls all of you, “My imaginary friends”!
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