Posted on 07/05/2009 2:49:12 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
Debtwatch 36 July 2009: It’s the Deleveraging, Stupid
Published in July 4th, 2009
Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch, USA
Steve Keen’s Debtwatch No. 36 July 2009
“Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over.” – Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930
“The past may not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme” Mark Twain
In the last six months, the phrase “Green Shoots of Recovery” has entered the economic lexicon. It appeared to some observers that the global recession was coming to an end, while Australia itself was likely to barely feel its impact.
I would be as pleased as anyone if these “green shoots” were true harbingers of a genuine end to the economic downturn–not because I would enjoy being wrong for the sake of it, but because my expectations for the future are so bad that I’d prefer to see them not come to pass.
Unfortunately, on current data I expect that “green” is a better description of the knowledge level of those making the optimistic predictions, than of the colour of any budding economic recovery.
Of course, it could be argued to the contrary that many of those making such optimistic forecasts are highly trained professional economists, and not merely market commentators who migh have a vested interest in putting a positive spin on the news.
This is true–but far from being a reason to trust these forecasts, it is yet another reason to be sceptical of them.
(Excerpt) Read more at debtdeflation.com ...
Ping!
Those graphs are terrifying ! ‘Nuff said.
As a follow up to my posting #4, the debt charts at the end of the blog are, indeed, startling. Under this framework, consumers will be unable or unwilling to further grow demand by going back into these types of debt levels— therefore no recovery in employment...
hh
You’ve got that right!
“This is already becoming apparent in the data, as economic historians Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’ Rourke point out in ‘A Tale of Two Depressions’“:
“To sum up, globally we are tracking or doing even worse than the Great Depression, whether the metric is industrial production, exports or equity valuations. Focusing on the US causes one to minimise this alarming fact. The “ Great Recession” label may turn out to be too optimistic. This is a Depression-sized event.”
But thank goodness we have a man in the White House and a complicit Media who will spare us from this kind of bad news!!
Green Shoots for everyone! *SMIRK*
I am so glad my cash is in gold and silver and real estate. I lived through the 80’s, and we truly ain’t seen nothin’ yet! 0bama is Carter on steroids.
Since we are a consumer-driven economy, and just about everyone I know is knuckling down and not spending a dime more than they have to, it’s going to be a very long recovery for us all. Personal savings will be up, people are tackling debt like never before, productivity will be steady, but I don’t see a lot of cash going back into expanding business or starting new businesses resulting in jobs. No jobs. No money. No spending. No stimulating the economy.
Lather, rinse, repeat for a few years...or a decade!
I hope I’m wrong.
ping
I don’t see that little clique following you around and mocking you like they used to do. I wonder why.
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