Posted on 10/24/2008 2:14:34 AM PDT by nobamanada
Take a look at this poll's internals showing McCain leading among the 18-24 demographic by 74%-22%. Are you joking? It's likely the opposite of this in favor of Obama. I'm all for being an optimist, but does anyone seriously believe this nonsense?
Please see my post 39.
“About IBD/TIPP: An analysis of Final Certified Results for the 2004 election showed IBD’s polling partner, TIPP, was the most accurate pollster of the campaign season. Learn more at www.TIPPonline.com.”
“And yet you felt no need to mention the disclaimer in your original vanity, in fact, your whole premise is that the entire poll is BS based on one number among many which the pollsters themselves said HAD to be inaccurate.
Okay, NOW you’re a troll.”
BINGO!
Signed up a month ago.
I have seen this "most accurate for 2004" line before, but I have to question the value of that. Will we see a different poll with the "most accurate for 2008" and a DIFFERENT one for 2012, etc? Accuracy in one election doesn't guarantee accuracy in another.
I just want this thing to be over, but I have to wonder if Obama's running out the clock idea is going to get him stuck. He's SUCH a poor candidate that if his numbers start dropping and he actually has to DO something than just rely on the MSM to carry his water, he could tank, which would be so very sweet--doing himself in by opening his big dumb mouth.
Thank you for the ping FocusNexus.
They were polling likely voters and the 18-24 year old group is a very small % of the voters, they mostly don’t vote. So when you poll 1000 likely voters, you probably get say 50 people in that age range, and that is not a reliable sample. They’d have to poll 50,000 people, to get 1000 likely voters in that age range.
I don’t know the actual % of the 18-24 year olds voting, but we know it’s small and you get the idea.
Here is my opinion with regard to younger voters, they have the attention span of toddler. Yes, you see them out in the streets, running their mouths, getting in peoples faces but when it comes down to it, if someones having a keg party, thats where they will be. I really doubt most of them have a clue or care, they are just caught up in the hoopla of it all.
Besides that, most college students who attend school out of state usually aren’t residents of the state where they are attending school. Do you think they are going to drive hours to go home just to vote? I may be wrong, just an observation from what I know of people in that age group, although none of the ones I know are voting for Obama.
The “Early Voting” you claim is so huge, is more than likely the result of ACORN fraud. This is the way to stuff the ballot box, because once they are counted, they are untraceable and irrefutable.
Yes, there are millions and they are the largest in history. ACORN admits that they have “registered” and “helped” millions of elderly, homeless and poor people fill out early voting cards and absentee ballots. Some voters were given cigarettes and money for every ballot they filled out.
Please, this garbage isn’t worth flaming. Have a beer. Watch some “Sex and the City” reruns. Hug a kitten. And get over it.
I have seen other polls with similar internals. Also, there are several polls showing that that demo is not a strongly for Obama as the press would have you believe. I think there is more pressure in that group to behave in a certain manner but that may not lead them to actually vote that way or vote at all. When I was 24 and after some girl and she was for some cause like peace I was the biggest peacenik when she was around! Nothing new there. The worst was one of the hottest girls I ever dated was vegetarian man that was a tough year.
Why do you guys give newbies such a hard time? Cut them slack. Argue the point or not/ cut out this troll crap all the time. It makes this site look immature.
Great linkw, Cindy.
Thanks for posting them.
If people only really knew who Obama really is and how he will govern, he would get about 20% of the votes.
You’re welcome FocusNexus.
OPINION:
If the voters really knew who B.O. was/is; he probably wouldn’t even be on the ballot.
This poll was the most accurate in the 2004 election!
That's the point of all this. The "people" DO know what Obama is and they still want him as president. We are in a sad state in this country.
I don’t know how good the IBD poll is in general, however, it seems to be the only one (or one of the very few) out there that actually seems to weight party ID to something sane. To make their overall numbers fit their breakdown by party, the Democrats would have somewhere between a 2-3% edge in part ID, which is historically in the right ballpark, as opposed to other polls showing the Democrats with party ID advantages of 10-15%.
As for the 18-24 crowd, that subsample might just be an outlier, and they do note that the subsample is too small to be statistically significant.
What I would like to know is if the early voting is showing any indication of “new voters”. What I mean is that for the entire election cycle we have heard about the huge amount of new, young voters (like we do every election). Has this shown up at all yet in the early voting?
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