In fact, the guy taking this picture was probably standing right on top of the faultline. If there is a big quake along that section of the Hayward Fault, I-House is going to pancake, Big Time.
Posted on 10/15/2008 10:37:15 AM PDT by nickcarraway
The economic loss from a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault could cause a larger economic loss for the Bay Area than Hurricane Katrina caused for New Orleans, an insurance risk analyst said.
Mary Lou Zoback of Risk Management Solutions said losses caused by shaking damage from a 7.0 quake could reach $210 billion, much higher than the $125 billion in damage caused by Hurricane Katrina.
Even worse, only about 7 or 8 percent of the economic losses caused by an earthquake on the Hayward fault, which would be focused along the East Bay's urban core, would be covered by insurance, according to Zoback.
By comparison, about half of the damage caused by Hurricane Katrina was covered by insurance, Zoback said.
"We're talking about huge potential losses to private businesses and homes and we're not even including public buildings and infrastructure," Zoback said.
Zoback's sobering remarks came at a news conference at California State University, East Bay at which U.S. Geological Service seismologist Brad Aargaard played new computer simulations that use three-dimensional geologic and seismic models that he said will help the public better understand the consequences of a temblor on the Hayward fault.
Aargaard said the simulations, which incorporate dozens of scenarios, could show city planners and emergency managers the various patterns of shaking for which they need to prepare.
The magnitude of earthquake and where the rupture starts have a strong influence on the impact of a quake, he said.
Homes, businesses, schools and other essential infrastructure built in areas underlain by soft sediments are at significantly greater risk during intense ground shaking, according to Aargaard.
Aargaard noted that Oct. 21 will be the 140th anniversary of the 1868 Hayward earthquake, which was one of the worst ever to hit the Bay Area.
He said the five most recent large earthquakes on the Hayward fault have occurred an average of about 140 years apart, so a repeat could happen at any time.
David Schwartz, the co-chair of the 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance, said, "We expect that the next large earthquake will happen sooner rather than later."
Zoback said that although the predictions about the likelihood of a large earthquake are scary, the good news is that the Bay Area is better prepared to deal with one that most regions are.
Zoback said, "We're making progress, but there's a lot left to be done" to be even better prepared.
Keith Knudsen, a member of the Earthquake Engineering Institute, said another piece of good news is that many cities in the Bay Area have adopted good programs to deal with a large earthquake.
"Practical solutions to many of the earthquake risks we face are readily available," he said.
Knudsen said the Earthquake Engineering Institute has compiled a list of "best practices" used throughout the Bay Area and has put them on its Web site.
California State University, East Bay will host a conference on earthquake hazards in the Eastern San Francisco Bay Area Oct. 22 to 24.
About 90 researchers will present results from their latest studies of earthquake hazards affecting the East Bay.
Owl_Eagle
There are people who are surrounded by bigots
and know it is wrong, but are afraid to be vocal against it.
These people are going to pull the lever for Obama
and they are not being polled.
angee_is_mad, DUmmy
Bush planted the bombs that cracked the earth under Nawleans. Any and all bad things that befall any and all predominantly black communities is Bush’s fault, until such time as there is another Republican president.
Hayward will be a really really bad one.
In fact, the guy taking this picture was probably standing right on top of the faultline. If there is a big quake along that section of the Hayward Fault, I-House is going to pancake, Big Time.
Then they’d better be sure to vote for McCain, because my future disaster-relief contributions to blue states are going to be ZERO.
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They’re getting in line for federal dollars to rebuild them, like New Orleans. The citizens don’t have the responsibility ... redistribution cause you don’t know how to spend you own money. /sarc
International House Pancakes?
:’D That restaurant will probably be moved syruptitiously before the quake.
*GROAN!*
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